Only one thing matters now for Israel
The storm was predicted for so long that many believed it would never break.
Now, at last, Israel has launched an all-out attack on Iran – designed, above all, to destroy the Islamic Republic's ability to build a nuclear weapon.
So do not be distracted by the killing of generals or the bombing of missile factories.
In normal times, Israel decapitating Iran's entire high command in one night, which appears to have happened, would be an astonishing development. But these are not normal times.
Now all that matters is how much damage Israel can inflict on three vital plants at the core of Iran's nuclear industry – Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan.
Credit: Reuters
The first two are where Iran enriches uranium, potentially to weapons grade. In Isfahan, raw uranium is converted into gas prior to being fed into centrifuges for enrichment.
If Israel can wreck all three of these installations, it will tear out the 'heart of Iran's nuclear programme', to use Benjamin Netanyahu's phrase, and block its enemy's path to the ultimate weapon.
So far, Israel appears to have struck Natanz but not Isfahan or Fordow.
The latter is by far the toughest target – an enrichment facility dug into a mountain, beneath hundreds of feet of rock and earth, where centrifuges are already producing uranium at 60 per cent purity, barely a hair's breadth from weapons grade.
Conventional wisdom holds that only the heaviest bunker-busting bombs of the US Air Force could destroy Fordow, while Israel's weapons would only cause superficial damage.
The great risk for Mr Netanyahu is that when the smoke clears and Operation Rising Lion, the codename of this campaign, is over, Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan will be reparable in a matter of months or even weeks.
If so, he will have achieved nothing but a short delay in Iran's path to a nuclear weapon. And you can be sure that Iran's leaders – if they are still in power when this ends – will immediately dash for a bomb.
But Israel has been preparing for this operation for 20 years, and it does not lack military ingenuity.
Few believed that Mossad and the Israeli air force could cripple Hezbollah by wiping out the Lebanese terror group's entire leadership and thousands of rank and file personnel in the space of a few weeks – yet exactly that happened last year.
It never pays to underestimate Israel's capabilities or assume that its air force, which specialises in destroying underground targets, could only knock dents in Fordow.
The enrichment halls of the much larger facility at Natanz are also found in subterranean bunkers, but at least they do not sit beneath a mountain. Meanwhile, the uranium conversion facility outside Isfahan is partially below ground level, though not as deeply buried as Fordow.
Whether Israel can utterly destroy – or merely damage – all three of these plants will determine whether Mr Netanyahu achieves anything more than briefly delaying Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Do not underestimate the stakes of his monumental gamble. He is doing something that no previous Israeli prime minister, including himself at earlier stages of his career, would have seriously considered.
He is launching an all-out strike on Iran without American backing and against the open opposition of Israel's new friends in the Gulf and its old ones in Europe.
The cautious Mr Netanyahu of earlier years – a master of delivering incendiary rhetoric and of pulling back from the brink – would never have dared take such a colossal risk.
The new, bolder Mr Netanyahu of today is clearly contemptuous of his allies, even of the US under Donald Trump.
He is supremely confident of Israel's military prowess, and believes the destruction of Hezbollah and of much of Iran's missile arsenal last year gravely weakened his enemy's ability to retaliate.
Now he is determined to go for broke, as if acting on the verse of the first Duke of Montrose: 'Like Alexander I will reign, and I will reign alone. My thoughts shall evermore disdain a rival on my throne. He either fears his fate too much, or his deserts are small, that puts it not unto the touch, to win or lose it all.'
Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Hill
20 minutes ago
- The Hill
How Israeli strikes dealt a serious blow to Iran's nuclear ambitions
Israel's sweeping attack across Iran struck at the heart of Tehran's nuclear program, delivering a blow to the country's ability to enrich uranium and potentially setting its nuclear ambitions back by months or years. As well as killing key military figures and nuclear scientists, the Israeli strikes destroyed part of a plant that was enriching uranium to levels far beyond the requirements for nuclear-fueled power stations. The attacks also destroyed backup power for the underground section of the plant, potentially damaging more sensitive equipment. Iran's nuclear program has progressed rapidly since 2018, when the U.S. withdrew from a deal to limit Tehran's capacity to enrich uranium, which is necessary to build a nuclear weapon. Iran maintains that its program is peaceful, but the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned that the country has enough enriched uranium to make several nuclear bombs if it chose to do so. Nuclear regulators said the assault was unlikely to lead to increased levels of radiation, even at the site where part of the fuel-enrichment plant was destroyed. Here's a closer look at the attack and its likely effects on Iran's nuclear efforts. Israel killed top military figures and nuclear scientists and destroyed part of a key enrichment site. There is 'no question' it did substantial damage, said Fabian Hinz, an expert on Iran's nuclear program at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London. David Albright, a nuclear weapons expert, speculated that the initial wave of attacks could set back any Iranian attempt to develop a nuclear weapon by about a year. A key question, Hinz said, is whether Israel also targeted suppliers of specialist components such as centrifuges and subcontractors. Israel's strategy appears to be to 'destroy the brains' behind the program and 'as much equipment as possible,' said Albright, who agreed that Israel has potentially done a 'tremendous amount of damage' to the program. Israel is widely believed to be behind a series of attacks in recent years that targeted Iranian nuclear scientists and sabotaged nuclear facilities. Hinz suggested a key Israeli goal was to undermine Iran's ability to make centrifuges, which are critical for enriching uranium. Uranium enrichment is a key component of building a nuclear weapon, but weapons also require detonators and a means of delivery, like missiles. Iran has two uranium-enrichment sites, and the country said Wednesday that it has built and will activate a third enrichment facility. On Thursday, Israel struck Iran's main and oldest facility in Natanz, 220 kilometers (135 miles) southeast of Tehran, which was protected by anti-aircraft batteries, fencing and Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. The IAEA's chief, Rafael Grossi, told an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council on Friday that the above-ground part of the plant where uranium was enriched up to 60% was destroyed, along with electrical infrastructure, including a substation, the main electric power supply building, the emergency power supply and backup generators. Grossi said there were no changes to radiation levels following the attack or any indication of damage to the underground section of the plant. That part of the facility is buried to protect it from airstrikes and contains the bulk of Natanz's enrichment facilities, with 10,000 centrifuges that enrich uranium up to 5%, Albright said. However, Grossi said, the loss of power may have damaged centrifuges. There is a good chance the strikes still caused 'massive damage,' Hinz said because many of the centrifuges were probably operating at the time of the strike. Centrifuges, Albright said, 'don't like vibration,' and the shock waves or loss of power could break delicate parts when they are rotating at high speed. Most of Iran's centrifuges are in Natanz, the experts said, because a lot of them are required to enrich uranium to 5% — which is the maximum level normally used for nuclear-fueled power stations. But, buried under a huge mountain at Fordo, around 100 kilometers (60 miles) southwest of Tehran, is another nuclear facility where Iran is also enriching uranium to 60%, which is only a short step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. According to the IAEA, Tehran has the largest number of its most powerful centrifuges at Fordo. An Iranian news outlet close to the government reported Friday that two explosions were heard near the Fordo site. But, while Israel could potentially hit the entrance to Fordo and temporarily block access, it is not believed to have the type of earth-penetrating bombs required to blow up the mountain and crack open the nuclear facility inside, Hinz said. That capacity lies with the U.S., which has developed a massive bomb that can be dropped only from large aircraft that Israel does not have in service, he said. The potential for more strikes loomed large. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the attacks will continue 'for as many days at it takes to remove this threat.' Hinz said the attacks showed Israeli intelligence had 'absolutely exceptional' knowledge of Iran's nuclear program and the ability to strike at key targets 'with precision.' That could mean Israel could sabotage the plant, rather than trying to blast the mountain open. Albright suggested Israel could try to cut off electricity to Fordo, which could lead to centrifuges breaking. Although Grossi said part of the enrichment facility at Natanz was destroyed, he noted that radiation levels had not spiked. Even if radiation did leak, experts said, the amount would be unlikely to pose a risk to people in the region or even those near the facilities that got hit. 'Very little uranium will be released in these kind of attacks,' Albright said. Uranium itself is not especially toxic, he said, and is common in parts of the environment. A person standing near an enrichment facility with a leak would probably be exposed to no more radiation than someone who took several transatlantic flights, which receive slightly higher radiation because radiation doses are larger at high altitudes, he said. In order to become sick, someone would have to ingest large quantities of uranium, Albright said, pointing out that the element can be found naturally in seawater and the earth's crust. Rather than radiation, the greater risk might be from fluorine, which is used to enrich uranium and could have been deadly to those nearby if released during an attack. Fluorine is mixed with the uranium during enrichment to turn it into a gas called uranium hexafluoride. It is extremely volatile, will quickly corrode and can burn the skin. It is especially deadly if inhaled. ___ The Associated Press receives support for nuclear security coverage from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and Outrider Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content. ___ Additional AP coverage of the nuclear landscape:
CNN
42 minutes ago
- CNN
Nic Robertson describes downed projectile in Israel
Nic Robertson describes downed projectile in Israel CNN's Nic Robertson reports at the site of a smoldering projectile on the road to Tel Aviv after a fresh wave of Iranian missile strikes. 00:30 - Source: CNN How Mossad pulled off the strikes in Iran Rare footage released by Israeli spy agency Mossad unveils the sophisticated intelligence operation behind Israel's recent unprecedented attack on Iran. CNN Chief Global Affairs Correspondent Matthew Chance takes a look into this significant breakthrough as well as what sort of retaliation could be in store. 01:02 - Source: CNN Missile interceptor launches from Jerusalem CNN's Jerusalem bureau chief and correspondent Oren Liebermann describes the moment an interceptor launched in the distance behind him during an on-air report from Jerusalem. 00:47 - Source: CNN Iranians celebrate retaliatory attack on Israel Iranians chanted and waved flags in a Tehran square to show support for Iran's retaliatory strikes on Israel. The barrage of missiles was launched hours after Israel killed top military commanders and nuclear experts in drone attacks. 00:33 - Source: CNN Nuclear deal between US and Iran now uncertain after Israel attack The nuclear deal between the US and Iran could be in jeopardy following Israel's attack on Iran. CNN's Kaitlan Collins has the details. 00:41 - Source: CNN Oren Liebermann reports inside a bomb shelter in Israel CNN's Jerusalem Bureau Chief Oren Liebermann reports from inside a bomb shelter as Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel after the unprecedented attack on Iran. 01:37 - Source: CNN Sole survivor of India plane crash speaks out Vishwash Kumar Ramesh is the sole survivor of an Air India flight that crashed shortly after takeoff. In an interview, Ramesh relives the harrowing moments when he escaped the plane. 01:02 - Source: CNN Iran says retaliation on Israel has begun Large explosions have been heard in Tel-Aviv, Israel, according to CNN's team on the ground. This comes after the Israeli military says it has identified incoming missiles launched from Iran toward Israel. 00:34 - Source: CNN Trump urges Iran to make nuclear deal in call to CNN CNN's Dana Bash talked with President Trump on the phone about Israel's unprecedented strikes on Iran that targeted nuclear facilities and military leaders. 01:35 - Source: CNN Iranians question nuclear talks with US after Israeli attack Crowds of demonstrators rallied in Tehran calling for retaliation after Israeli strikes on Iran and questioning whether the country should continue negotiations with the United States over a potential nuclear deal. 00:49 - Source: CNN Amanpour breaks down Israeli strikes on Iran Israel has launched unprecedented strikes on Iran, targeting its nuclear program and assassinating top military leaders in an attack that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said will last many days. The operation, codenamed 'Operation Rising Lion,' hit Iran's main enrichment facility in Natanz, as well as targeting Iranian nuclear scientists and military leaders. 02:34 - Source: CNN Analysis: How might Iran respond to Israeli attack? Overnight Israel struck several locations in Iran, including the capital Tehran and the country's nuclear sites. Israel says 200 fighter jets were involved in the attack that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said will last many days. With Iran's defenses weakened in Israel's October attack, and several military leaders killed, its response to last night's strike may be limited. CNN's chief security correspondent Nick Paton Walsh gives his analysis. 01:30 - Source: CNN Israel's spy agency shows how they attacked Iran from within Israel has launched unprecedented strikes on Iran, targeting its nuclear program and military leaders. Israel's spy agency, Mossad, released video of operatives inside Iran before the strikes. 00:44 - Source: CNN Top Iranian commander killed in Israeli strikes Iran's revolutionary guard has confirmed the death General Hossein Salami, one of the country's most powerful and influential military commanders, in Israel's strikes. The IRGC said its command structure and other branches of the military were 'fully prepared to deliver a decisive and harsh response.' CNN senior international correspondent Frederik Pleitgen reports. 01:40 - Source: CNN Analysis: Why Israel attacked Iran now CNN's Oren Liebermann explains the reasons why Israel decided to attack Iran in unprecedented strikes targeting its nuclear program and senior military leaders. 01:49 - Source: CNN Survivor of India plane crash appears to walk away from site in video Video appears to show the sole survivor of a 242 passenger plane crash walking away from the rubble. 00:27 - Source: CNN Expert examines CCTV footage to see what happened to Air India flight before crash Newly released CCTV footage shows Air India Flight 171 take off before crashing moments later. CNN aviation analyst Miles O'Brien offers his analysis. 00:56 - Source: CNN Passenger survives Air India plane crash At least one passenger on board Air India Flight 171 to London Gatwick survived, local police said. According to Reuters, senior police officer Vidhi Chaudhary said the man had been in seat 11A and added that there may be a few more survivors in the hospital. 00:19 - Source: CNN Video shows moment plane crashes in India Social media video shows flames and thick smoke billowing into the air, as an Air India passenger plane, carrying 242 people, crashed shortly after takeoff. The plane had departed an airport in Ahmedabad, India and was bound for London's Gatwick Airport. 00:20 - Source: CNN Rare deep-sea squid filmed alive for first time Scientists have captured the first-ever footage of the elusive Gonatus antarcticus squid alive in its deep-sea habitat. CNN's Jeremy Roth describes the rare encounter. For more on this story, visit 01:12 - Source: CNN Analysis: Is Netanyahu's government under threat? Among an ongoing corruption trial, protests against his leadership and an upcoming vote to dissolve the government, CNN's Oren Liebermann looks at the growing pressure on Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 01:59 - Source: CNN Austrian mayor of city hit by school shooting speaks to CNN Austria is reeling from one of the worst rampages in the country's history after a gunman opened fire at a high school in the city of Graz, killing 10 people, including teenagers. Elke Kahr, mayor of Graz, spoke to CNN's Frederik Pleitgen during a candlelight vigil as the city reflects on the rare tragedy. 01:15 - Source: CNN Mexican flags at LA protests spark heated debate Mexico's flag has become a defining symbol of the protests in Los Angeles, sparking a heated debate amongst the Latino community about whether or not it's disrespectful. CNN's Rafael Romo breaks down the debate and what the it means to be Mexican-American right now. 01:53 - Source: CNN Austria hit by rare school shooting A gunman in Austria opened fire on a school in the southern city of Graz, killing himself and at least nine others. The death toll includes teenagers between the ages of 14 and 18, the Austrian interior ministry said. CNN's Frederik Pleitgen reports. 01:05 - Source: CNN
Yahoo
42 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Israel's endgame may be regime change in Iran - but it's a gamble
Beyond Israel's stated goal of destroying what it calls an existential threat from Iran's nuclear capabilities with its attacks on Friday, Benjamin Netanyahu has a wider aim - regime change in Tehran. Under this scenario, he might hope that the unprecedented strikes start a chain reaction leading to unrest that topples the Islamic Republic. He said in a statement on Friday evening that "The time has come for the Iranian people to unite around its flag and its historic legacy, by standing up for your freedom from the evil and oppressive regime." Many Iranians are unhappy with the state of the economy, the lack of freedom of speech, women's rights, and minority rights. Israel's attack is posing a real threat to Iran's leadership. The strikes have killed the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the chief of staff of the armed forces, and many other high-ranking IRGC chiefs, and the Israeli attack is not yet over. Iran retaliated in the afternoon, with the Revolutionary Guard saying it carried out attacks against "dozens of targets, military centres and airbases". The situation escalated quickly and after Iran's retaliatory missile attacks, Netanyahu said, "More is on the way". More of Iran's leaders could be targeted. Israel may calculate that the attacks and killings could unsettle the regime and open the way for a popular uprising. At least this is what Netanyahu hopes for. But this is a gamble - a big one. There is no evidence that such a chain reaction will start in the first place, but even if it starts, it is unclear where such a process might lead. Those with the most power in Iran are the people who control the armed forces and the economy, and most of that is in the hands of hardliners in the IRGC and some other unelected bodies. They don't need to stage a coup because they are already in power, and they could take Iran in a more confrontational direction. Another possible outcome could be regime collapse followed by Iran's descent into chaos. With a population of about 90 million people, events in the country would have a massive impact across the Middle East. Israel's desired outcome seems to be an uprising that ends with a friendly force taking over, but a major question here is who might be the alternative? Iranian opposition forces have been highly fragmented in recent years and there are no clear options here. After the unrests in 2022, known as the "Woman Life Freedom" movement that took most of Iran like a storm, some opposition groups tried to form a coalition of a wide range of anti-Islamic Republic groups and activists. But that didn't last long due to differences in their views on who leads the coalition and what will be the shape of the regime after toppling the current one. Israel's leaders might see some of these groups or personas as preferred alternatives. For example, the Iranian former crown prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's former Shah, who was overthrown in the country's 1979 Islamic revolution. He lives in exile and has been actively trying to influence foreign players to support his cause. He also visited Israel in recent years. Although he has gained popularity among some Iranians, it's not clear whether that could quickly transform into a force for regime change. Live: Latest update as Israel targets Iran's nuclear sites Watch: Footage shows explosions and buildings ablaze in Tehran Israel has inflicted unprecedented damage on Iran's elite - why now? Israel chose to act now, whether Trump likes it or not Iran is reeling from Israel's unprecedented attack - and it is only the start There's also the Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK), an exiled opposition group that backs the overthrow of the Islamic Republic but is against going back to the monarchy. Founded as a left-wing Muslim group, it previously staunchly opposed the shah. After the revolution, the MEK went to Iraq and joined Saddam Hussein in the early 1980s during his war against Iran, which made them unpopular among many Iranians. The group continues to be active and has friends in the US, some of whom are close to Donald Trump's camp. However, it appears to have less influence with the White House than during Trump's first term, when senior US officials including Mike Pompeo, John Bolton, and Rudy Giuliani appeared at MEK gatherings and gave supportive speeches. There are other political forces as well, from those who want to establish a secular democracy to those who seek a parliamentary monarchy and so on. It might be too early to analyse the full extent of Friday's attacks, but during last year's exchanges of fire between Iran and Israel, there were no strong indications that Iranians saw those situations as an opportunity for toppling the regime. However, those events didn't even come close to the level of destruction during Friday's attacks. We must also ask what Iran's endgame is now. Despite targeting a number of targets in Israel, Iran doesn't seem to have many good options. Some might see the safest way out as continuing to engage in negotiations with the US and aiming to de-escalate from there. But returning to negotiations, as Trump has demanded, is a tough choice for Iran's leaders because that would mean they have accepted defeat. Another option is to carry on with retaliatory attacks against Israel. This seems to be their most desired option. This is what Iranian leaders had promised to their supporters, but even if the attacks continue, it could invite further attacks by Israel. Tehran has in the past threatened to target US bases, embassies, and points of interest in the region. But this is not easily achieved and attacking the US would bring it directly into the mix, which is what Iran least wants. None of these options are easy for either side and their consequences are hard to predict. The dust is still in the air and we won't know until it settles what changes have taken place.
