Trump will not pull a magic peace rabbit out of the hat soon. Putin thinks he's winning

Telegraph

15-03-2025

It should be clear to everyone that Putin has no interest in peace, something Sir Keir Starmer reiterated today at the ' Coalition of the Willing' summit where leaders discussed enforcing a ceasefire.
The Prime Minister stated: ' If Putin is serious about peace, it's very simple, he must stop his barbaric attacks on Ukraine and agree to a ceasefire.' But neither outcome seems remotely likely. Putin claims he is winning, so why on earth would he stop now and admit failure after sacrificing a million lives?
The Russian president's demands that we address what he calls the 'root causes' of the war are completely unacceptable. He wants Nato back to 1997 borders with the Baltic states, Finland and Sweden all to leave. He wants complete integration of captured land into Russia and international recognition of that. He insists that there should be no Nato troops in Ukraine, and let's not forget his reasons – which he told us for many years – for the illegal invasion. He demands the complete reintegration of the whole of Ukraine into Russia and a decoupling the US from Europe.
Putin has pretty much achieved the last of these, and Western intelligence agencies assess that he thinks he can achieve his primary objective, most especially as he is making ground along most of the contact line. When I spoke to people near Pokrovsk yesterday facing a gas attack and forced to withdraw, it did not even hit the news channels – silenced by all the hot air coming out of Moscow, Washington and European capitals.
Russian casualties have recently passed the one million mark and Putin knows he is in for one heck of an awakening with the ' Mothers of Russia ' once the dust settles on this war – he will want to push this moment as far as he possibly can. He is all too aware that it was the grieving mothers who forced the Kremlin into an ignominious defeat and withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1984 after the Russian army suffered 17,000 dead. He can spin this out whilst Russia is on a war footing, and the rank and file cannot travel the world to find the truth, but when they can, he's in trouble, big trouble.
The UK and Europe, with or without Trump, must consider all options. Putin only reacts to strength. A no-fly zone over Ukraine or Nato boots on the ground could deter Russian advances westwards. Only when Putin knows we will fully commit to this fight will he seriously consider peace. Most in Europe who study Putin and Russia in any detail know that he will not stop at Ukraine if he takes Kyiv. In effect, he wants to rebuild the Soviet Union, and has said as much to anybody who has bothered to unpick his frequent diatribes over the years.
President Trump's main interest in Ukraine seems to be making a quick buck from Kyiv's rare earth materials. However Putin has said he can have them anyway.
Trump knows that as European nations hike defence spending, there is a chance for US defence companies to clean up, but the cancellation of some F-35 fighter jet orders this week is more likely to make him lean into Ukraine's defence than calls from Starmer and Macron for help. If this move to ditch US military equipment becomes mainstream, Trump will get a severe financial headache which he will want to stop, and fast.
The 'root causes' of the conflict mentioned by Putin is simply Kremlin code for Nato expansion. Moscow cannot accept that other countries have agency, and that Nato expansion is driven by Russia's overbearing behaviour towards its neighbours rather than because Nato is intrinsically expansionist. Putin does not want peace; he is still aiming for total victory in Ukraine and believes he can achieve it.
We, in Europe especially, need to understand the reality of Putin's position and plan accordingly. Trump will not be pulling a magic peace-rabbit out of the hat anytime soon.