Is India Next? COVID Cases Explode Across Asia — Experts Warn of a Looming Surge at Home

Time of India

17-05-2025

New Delhi: As a fresh COVID-19 wave grips parts of Asia — from Singapore and Hong Kong to Thailand — health experts are sounding the alarm: Could
India
be the next hotspot? With a massive population and waning immunity from past vaccinations, India may be on the brink of another viral resurgence.
The highly infectious JN.1 variant, though not deadlier, is spreading rapidly across borders — and the warning signs are eerily familiar.
According to leading doctors, India could indeed witness a similar wave, driven by decreased immunity in the population. 'The recent surge in countries like Hong Kong and China is being linked to waning antibodies, and the same could hold true for India,' explains Dr.
Vikas Maurya
, Senior Director and Head of Pulmonology at Fortis Shalimar Bagh.
'With a significant amount of time having passed since most people received their COVID vaccinations, lower antibody levels may increase susceptibility to infection and its transmission within communities.'
He further warns, 'It is possible that India might see a similar spike. In China, the rise in cases is attributed to decreased antibodies or immunity over time — the same could happen here.
Many people in India were vaccinated a long time ago. If their immunity has dropped, more individuals could catch and spread the infection.'
Noting that the JN.1 variant isn't significantly different from previous strains, its timing and spread are unusual, Dr.
Sandeep Budhiraja
, Group Medical Director,
Max Healthcare
, said, 'What is disturbing is that this wave is increasingly affecting populations in Southeast Asia during the summer months — a time when respiratory viruses typically don't peak,' he says.
Though JN.1, a subvariant of Omicron, does not usually cause severe illness, it is highly infectious and can spread rapidly across communities. The symptoms, he adds, remain similar to earlier variants, with no unique or alarming clinical differences so far.
Elucidating about the key differences between the JN.1 variant and the variants currently circulating in India — should we be concerned about its transmissibility or severity? Health experts clarify that JN.1 is already present in India, although the subvariants detected here may differ slightly from those currently driving the surge in countries like Hong Kong and China.
JN.1 is a mutated coronavirus strain descending from the Omicron lineage, specifically a direct descendant of BA.2.86, also known as
Pirola
.
"The variant has quickly gained dominance in several parts of the world, including the United States and now China, and has been officially classified as a 'variant of interest' by the
World Health Organisation
(WHO). This classification stems from its high risk of rapid growth, owing to its ability to multiply swiftly, and a moderate risk of antibody escape, which means it can somewhat evade existing immune defenses," Dr.
Maurya
said.
However, the reassuring aspect is that JN.1 has so far been associated with only mild to moderate symptoms, and the risk of severe disease remains low. 'We are primarily seeing mild forms of illness — not many cases of severe complications,' the expert noted.
That said, Dr. Maurya informed that India should remain vigilant.
While JN.1 may not cause serious illness in most cases, its high transmissibility means that if it begins to spread widely, it could lead to a sharp increase in cases, placing additional pressure on healthcare systems even if hospitalizations remain low.
As the world debates the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in countries like Singapore and Hong Kong, Indian experts stress that testing and, more importantly, genomic surveillance are critical to identify which variants are currently circulating.
"COVID-19," they emphasize, "has never truly disappeared — it has lingered in an endemic form, occasionally causing local or regional outbreaks. The current uptick in cases abroad is not necessarily due to a more dangerous strain but is likely the result of waning immunity across the population, particularly since regular vaccinations have slowed.
As immunity diminishes over time, especially among vulnerable groups like the elderly or those with comorbidities, the virus finds an opportunity to spread," Budhiraja cautions.
In light of these developments, India may need to reassess its vaccination strategy — particularly booster doses for high-risk groups. While current vaccines were designed for earlier strains, they still offer critical protection against severe outcomes. Globally, booster shots have been shown to reduce transmission and limit the severity of illness.
Both doctors emphasise that public health measures — such as masking, hand hygiene, and physical distancing — remain effective and should be reinforced if infections rise. Large-scale lockdowns are unlikely, but local interventions may be required in the event of localized outbreaks.
"Crucially, India's genomic surveillance capabilities are robust, with laboratories in cities like Delhi and Pune actively monitoring viral mutations. This infrastructure is pivotal in identifying and responding to new variants," Dr. Maurya added.
Experts also stress the importance of learning from other countries' experiences. Hong Kong's management of vaccination strategy, public health communication, and healthcare capacity can offer valuable lessons for India's preparedness.
With international travel acting as a conduit for virus transmission, enhanced screening — and, if necessary, quarantine — for travelers from high-risk regions is recommended to prevent the import of more infectious or potentially severe variants.
Treatment protocols for JN.1 remain consistent with earlier strains and primarily focus on symptomatic relief. Severe cases, though rare, may require antivirals or anti-inflammatory medications.
Research is ongoing to assess how well existing vaccines and treatments hold up against the variant, but current medical consensus remains cautiously optimistic.