Israeli minister warns Hezbollah against entering Iran-Israel war
OCCUPIED JERUSALEM: Israel's defence minister Israel Katz on Friday warned Lebanese group Hezbollah against entering the Iran-Israel war, after the Islamic republic's ally said it would act 'as we see fit'.
Israel-Iran air war enters second week as Europe pushes diplomacy
'I suggest the Lebanese proxy be cautious and understand that Israel has lost patience with terrorists who threaten it', Katz said in a statement, adding that 'if there is terrorism – there will be no Hezbollah.'
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Business Recorder
an hour ago
- Business Recorder
Iran-Israel tensions threaten Pakistan's fragile economic recovery
The world is holding its breath as tensions between Iran and Israel reach a boiling point. What began as a shadow war – fought through covert attacks, cyber strikes, and regional proxies – now teeters on the edge of open warfare. For many, this may seem like another distant Middle Eastern flashpoint. But for Pakistan and other oil-importing, investment-hungry economies, the potential fallout from a full-scale Iran-Israel war could be immediate, destabilising, and enduring. Trump to decide on US action in Israel-Iran war within two weeks, White House says The Strait of Hormuz Iran has long warned that if it is attacked directly, it would retaliate by closing or disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly a fifth of the world's oil and one-third of global LNG passes. If war breaks out and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps acts on this threat, the effect would be seismic. Oil prices could jump to $120–$130 per barrel, if not higher, within days, according to JP Morgan. Energy markets would convulse, and strategic reserves would be tapped globally. For Pakistan, where nearly 30% of the import bill is fuel, this would mean an instant blowout of the current account deficit, a weakening rupee, and imported inflation feeding into everything from electricity tariffs to grocery prices. The current war has the power to reorder global energy, unsettle regional politics, and cast a long shadow over Pakistan's fragile economic recovery A rise in oil prices would also raise transport costs and production expenses for exporters – particularly in textiles and manufacturing – shrinking competitiveness just when the country is trying to climb out of economic stagnation. Iran says no nuclear talks under Israeli fire, Trump considers options US Involvement: The risk of a regional war Should Israel launch a significant military operation against Iran's nuclear infrastructure, US involvement is almost guaranteed – if not militarily, then through security and diplomatic cover. Iran could retaliate through its extensive network of regional allies: Hezbollah in Lebanon, armed groups in Syria and Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen. In response, Israel may strike across multiple fronts. The Gulf, already skittish, could be drawn into this widening circle of conflict. This would be a pan-regional war, not a bilateral spat – and global markets would respond accordingly. For Pakistani businesses and policymakers, this isn't just an oil story – it's about the collapse of confidence. Equity markets across the region would take a hit, foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into emerging economies would pause, and the risk premium for countries like Pakistan – already contending with political instability and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) obligations – would rise further. That means higher borrowing costs, capital flight, and declining investor appetite for anything deemed 'exposed to the region'. Trade corridors under threat Even beyond the Strait, Iran serves as a critical trade conduit to Central Asia and Turkey. With road and rail links passing through its territory, Pakistan has in recent years viewed Iran as a potential bridge to diversify trade routes. If Iran becomes a war zone or faces renewed and expanded US sanctions, these overland corridors could shut down indefinitely. The Pakistan-Iran-Turkey freight corridor, a pillar of Pakistan's regional trade ambitions, would collapse. And as regional tensions rise, other initiatives – such as Iran's role in China's Belt and Road – could also stall, indirectly affecting Pakistan's own the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) trajectory. The perils of regime change Some voices in Western capitals quietly suggest that an Iran–Israel war could trigger regime change in Tehran. But regime change rarely brings instant democracy or economic liberalism. More often, it brings chaos, uncertainty, and power vacuums. In Iran's case, a collapsed regime could unleash internal civil strife, embolden separatist movements, and leave critical oil and gas infrastructure vulnerable. A successor regime – military, clerical, or revolutionary – might be more aggressive, not less. And either way, it would take years to stabilise one of the region's largest energy exporters, further compounding oil market disruption and regional instability. Implications for Pakistan Pakistan has always maintained a careful balancing act between Iran, the Gulf Arab states, and the West. A full-scale Iran–Israel war would make that balance nearly impossible to maintain. Moreover, if the conflict spreads to the Gulf, the implications for Pakistan's diaspora workers in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and beyond – who send home billions in remittances – could be severe. Even minor disruptions to Gulf economies or airline connectivity would affect the lifeblood of Pakistan's foreign exchange. The Iran–Israel confrontation is no longer a question of if – but how far it spreads. For Pakistan and many in the Global South, the imperative now is economic preparedness: building energy buffers, accelerating regional trade alternatives, and strengthening diplomatic channels that could help de-escalate tensions. The current war has the power to reorder global energy, unsettle regional politics, and cast a long shadow over Pakistan's fragile economic recovery. The article does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Business Recorder or its owners
Business Recorder
an hour ago
- Business Recorder
Iran-Israel tensions threaten Pakistan's fragile recovery
The world is holding its breath as tensions between Iran and Israel reach a boiling point. What began as a shadow war – fought through covert attacks, cyber strikes, and regional proxies – now teeters on the edge of open warfare. For many, this may seem like another distant Middle Eastern flashpoint. But for Pakistan and other oil-importing, investment-hungry economies, the potential fallout from a full-scale Iran - Israel war could be immediate, destabilizing, and enduring. Trump to decide on US action in Israel-Iran war within two weeks, White House says The Strait of Hormuz Iran has long warned that if it is attacked directly, it would retaliate by closing or disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly a fifth of the world's oil and one-third of global LNG passes. If war breaks out and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps acts on this threat, the effect would be seismic. Oil prices could jump to $150–$180 per barrel, if not higher, within days. Energy markets would convulse, and strategic reserves would be tapped globally. For Pakistan, where nearly 30% of the import bill is fuel, this would mean an instant blowout of the current account deficit, a weakening rupee, and imported inflation feeding into everything from electricity tariffs to grocery prices. A rise in oil would also raise transport costs and production expenses for exporters – particularly in textiles and manufacturing – shrinking competitiveness just when the country is trying to climb out of economic stagnation. Iran says no nuclear talks under Israeli fire, Trump considers options US Involvement: The risk of a regional war Should Israel launch a significant military operation against Iran's nuclear infrastructure, U.S. involvement is almost guaranteed – if not militarily, then through security and diplomatic cover. Iran could retaliate through its extensive network of regional allies: Hezbollah in Lebanon, armed groups in Syria and Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen. In response, Israel may strike across multiple fronts. The Gulf, already skittish, could be drawn into this widening circle of conflict. This would be a pan-regional war, not a bilateral spat – and global markets would respond accordingly. For Pakistani businesses and policymakers, this isn't just an oil story – it's about the collapse of confidence. Equity markets across the region would take a hit, FDI flows into emerging economies would pause, and the risk premium for countries like Pakistan – already contending with political instability and IMF obligations – would rise further. That means higher borrowing costs, capital flight, and declining investor appetite for anything deemed 'exposed to the region.' Trade corridors under threat Even beyond the Strait, Iran serves as a critical trade conduit to Central Asia and Turkey. With road and rail links passing through its territory, Pakistan has in recent years viewed Iran as a potential bridge to diversify trade routes. If Iran becomes a war zone or faces renewed and expanded US sanctions, these overland corridors could shut down indefinitely. The Pakistan-Iran-Turkey freight corridor, a pillar of Pakistan's regional trade ambitions, would collapse. And as regional tensions rise, other initiatives – such as Iran's role in China's Belt and Road – could also stall, indirectly affecting Pakistan's own CPEC trajectory. The perils of regime change Some voices in Western capitals quietly suggest that an Iran–Israel war could trigger regime change in Tehran. But regime change rarely brings instant democracy or economic liberalism. More often, it brings chaos, uncertainty, and power vacuums. In Iran's case, a collapsed regime could unleash internal civil strife, embolden separatist movements, and leave critical oil and gas infrastructure vulnerable. A successor regime – military, clerical, or revolutionary – might be more aggressive, not less. And either way, it would take years to stabilize one of the region's largest energy exporters, further compounding oil market disruption and regional instability. Implications for Pakistan Pakistan has always maintained a careful balancing act between Iran, the Gulf Arab states, and the West. A full-scale Iran–Israel war would make that balance nearly impossible to maintain. Pressures to align with either the OIC consensus or international sanctions regimes could limit Islamabad's diplomatic bandwidth and expose it to both economic and political costs. Moreover, if the conflict spreads to the Gulf, the implications for Pakistan's diaspora workers in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and beyond – who send home billions in remittances – could be severe. Even minor disruptions to Gulf economies or airline connectivity would affect the lifeblood of Pakistan's foreign exchange. The Iran–Israel confrontation is no longer a question of if – but how far it spreads. For Pakistan and many in the Global South, the imperative now is economic preparedness: building energy buffers, accelerating regional trade alternatives, and strengthening diplomatic channels that could help de-escalate tensions. The current war has the power to reorder global energy, unsettle regional politics, and cast a long shadow over Pakistan's fragile economic recovery. The article does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Business Recorder or its owners
Business Recorder
2 hours ago
- Business Recorder
Iran says no nuclear talks under Israeli fire, Trump considers options
JERUSALEM/DUBAI/WASHINGTON: Iran said on Friday it would not discuss the future of its nuclear programme while under attack by Israel, as Europe tried to coax Tehran back into negotiations and the United States considers whether to get involved in the conflict. A week after it began attacking Iran, Israel's military said it had carried out new strikes on dozens of military targets overnight, including missile production sites and a research organisation involved in nuclear weapons development in Tehran. Iran launched at least one new barrage of missiles early on Friday, striking near residential apartments, office buildings and industrial facilities in the southern city of Beersheba. The White House said on Thursday that President Donald Trump would decide on 'whether or not to go' with U.S. involvement in the conflict in the next two weeks, citing the possibility of negotiations involving Iran in the near future. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday there was no room for negotiations with Israel's superpower ally the United States 'until Israeli aggression stops'. Trump to decide on US action in Israel-Iran war within two weeks, White House says But he was due to meet European foreign ministers in Geneva later on Friday for talks at which Europe hopes to establish a path back to diplomacy over Iran's nuclear programme. Two diplomats said before the meeting involving France, Britain, Germany and the European Union's foreign policy chief that Araqchi would be told the U.S. is still open to direct talks. Expectations for a breakthrough are low, diplomats say. Israel began attacking Iran last Friday, saying its longtime enemy was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons. Iran, which says its nuclear programme is only for peaceful purposes, retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Israel. Israel is widely assumed to possess nuclear weapons. It neither confirms nor denies this. Israeli air attacks have killed 639 people in Iran, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, a U.S.-based human rights organisation that tracks Iran. The dead include the military's top echelon and nuclear scientists. Israel has said at least two dozen Israeli civilians have been killed in Iranian missile attacks. Israeli defence minister warns Hezbollah against joining conflict with Iran Reuters could not independently verify the death toll from either side. Details of casualties in the latest strikes were not immediately known. Civilians killed Both sides say they are attacking military and defence-related targets, but civilians have also been caught in the crossfire and each has accused the other of hitting hospitals. An Iranian news website said a drone had struck an apartment in a residential building in central Tehran on Friday, but did not give details. Israel's strikes on Iran's nuclear installations so far pose only limited risks of contamination, experts say. But they warn that any attack on the nuclear power station at Bushehr could cause a nuclear disaster. Israel says it is determined to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities but that it wants to avoid any nuclear disaster in a region that is inhabited by tens of millions of people and produces much of the world's oil. Israel's attack on Iran violates international law: FO The meeting in Geneva was due to start on Friday afternoon. The Swiss city is where an initial accord was struck in 2013 to curb Iran's nuclear programme in return for sanctions being lifted. A comprehensive deal followed in 2015. Trump pulled the U.S. out of the agreement in 2018. A new series of talks between Iran and the U.S. collapsed when Israel launched what it called Operation Rising Lion against Iran's nuclear facilities and ballistic capabilities on June 12. Trump has alternated between threatening Tehran and urging it to resume nuclear talks. His special envoy to the region, Steve Witkoff, has spoken to Araqchi several times since last week, sources say. The Middle East has been on edge since the Hamas attacked it in October of 2023, triggering the Gaza war, and Israel has been fighting on several fronts against Iran's regional allies. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz warned on Friday of further action against Iranian ally Hezbollah, a day after the Lebanese group suggested it would come to Iran's aid. Western and regional officials say Israel is trying to shatter the government of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday 'the downfall of the regime … may be a result, but it's up to the Iranian people to rise for their freedom.' Iranian opposition groups think their time may be near, but activists involved in previous protests say they are unwilling to unleash mass unrest with their nation under attack, and Iranian authorities have cracked down hard on dissent. 'How are people supposed to pour into the streets? In such horrifying circumstances, people are solely focused on saving themselves, their families, their compatriots, and even their pets,' said Atena Daemi, a prominent activist who spent six years in prison before leaving Iran.
