As Russia's president strives to expand influence, Poland tries to make its border Putin proof

Australia Broadcast Center

15 hours ago

As the Russian president's war in Ukraine continues to rage, Poland is preparing to be his next target.
It is clear we are being watched.
Authorities have already stopped our car twice as we approach the heavily fortified border, via back roads.
As one guard reminds us while inspecting our IDs, we are a long way off the tourist trail.
Tensions are high here, where Poland and Russia intersect. It is — literally — a clash of worlds.
To one side, democracy, NATO and the European Union. On the other? Vladimir Putin's increasingly aggressive and expansionist regime.
Poland is revamping antiquated defences on its border with Russia. ( ABC News: Riley Stuart )
Some people are concerned this remote region could be the Russian president's next target, perhaps after the conclusion of his war in Ukraine.
Poland's government is not taking any chances, spending up big on a suite of measures aimed to deter its hostile neighbour from launching an attack.
Lieutenant Iwona Misiarz is involved in the preparations and agreed to show us what is being done to prevent this frontier becoming a front line.
"To put it bluntly," she begins, "if they try to bite us, they'll break their teeth".
Lieutenant Iwona Misiarz shows off the latest section of Operation East Shield. ( ABC News: Riley Stuart )
Poland's border with Russia includes a large network of CCTV cameras. ( ABC News: Riley Stuart )
Poland's 232-kilometre border with Russia's Kaliningrad region is an exclave — a geographical quirk that means it is separated from the rest of the country's territory.
As maps were redrawn amid the Soviet Union's dissolution in the early 90s, it became surrounded by Poland, Lithuania and the Baltic Sea.
Getting to Moscow now requires a journey of more than 1,000km, and crossing two foreign countries.
Despite its isolation, the territory remains a vital military, shipping and economic centre for the Kremlin today.
Operation East Shield took place along the borders of Poland, Belarus and Kaliningrad. ( ABC News Digital Graphics: Gabrielle Flood )
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 put this region on high alert.
Last year, the Polish government announced a new program, dubbed Operation East Shield, which is designed to fortify its borders with Kaliningrad and Moscow's puppet state of Belarus.
With a price tag of 10 billion zloty ($4.1 billion), it is among the country's most significant national security spends since the end of World War II.
It includes constructing obstacles like ditches and hills, as well as deploying thousands of anti-tank concrete traps (or "hedgehogs"), and ramping up surveillance technology.
Anti-tank defences now punctuate large parts of Poland's border with Kaliningrad. ( ABC News: Riley Stuart )
"They're not meant to stop an enemy completely," Lieutenant Misiarz explains.
"Their purpose is solely to slow them down. No barrier can fully stop someone who truly intends to get through."
There's even space for a minefield, if the situation deteriorates.
Only a fraction of the 800km project has been completed. Construction is supposed to continue until at least 2028.
"Let's be honest, this is a massive undertaking," says Lieutenant Misiarz.
Putin wants to increase Russia's influence
Last year, Mr Putin said during an interview he was "not interested in attacking Poland".
But that is little comfort to the people here: the 72-year-old autocrat also pledged not to invade Ukraine the month before he started the war there.
After more than three years of intense fighting, large parts of Russia's economy are now propped up by the Kremlin's massive military spending.
But the cost has been more than financial.
Nearly 1 million of Mr Putin's troops have been killed or wounded during the conflict in Ukraine, according to a study by the Washington DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies released earlier this month.
Vladimir Putin has towered over Russia for more than two decades. ( Sputnik: Gavriil Grigorov via Reuters )
Moscow's unbridled appetite to bolster its military, whether with money or new recruits, is among the reasons Poland is upping its game.
Mr Putin has also spoken about his desire to see Russian influence increase in former Soviet states, and countries like Poland, that was once a communist dictatorship ruled by the Kremlin.
Whether that means an invasion is likely depends on who you talk to.
Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk has made his thoughts clear.
Earlier this year, he told parliament his government would roll out "large-scale military training for every adult male" in the country. Specifics are set to be announced in the coming months.
It is part of a plan to increase the size of Poland's army from around 200,000 to 500,000, including reservists.
Mr Tusk said he hoped the training would make the country's men "fully-fledged and competent soldiers during a conflict".
Some people are already taking matters into their own hands.
A woman prepares to enter a trench scenario as part of the civilian training day. ( ABC News: Riley Stuart )
As part of the training session, people practised throwing grenades. ( ABC News: Riley Stuart )
Participants at the training session were shown the basics of navigation. ( ABC News: Riley Stuart )
More than 100 civilians turned up on a wet day near Warsaw to get basic military training. ( ABC News: Riley Stuart )
At a military base outside Poland's capital, Warsaw, more than 100 civilians braved a chilly Sunday morning to learn basic combat and first aid skills last month.
Barbara Biedrzycka-Bialonoga, a PE teacher and mother of four, was among those who had never done anything like it before.
"My husband is in the military, and I told him to sign me up," she said.
"I've met lots of new people and gained new experiences. In case something serious happens, I want to know how to protect my kids, and myself."
Piotr Pietruczuk was doing the training for a fifth time.
"I've been interested in this ever since Russia attacked Ukraine," he said.
"I decided it's worth learning at least the basics, so that in the future I can join the army."
Mr Pietruczuk, 36, lives in Bialystok — a city just 50km from the border with Belarus. He said the two countries were already engaged in a type of "hybrid warfare".
Poland's border with Belarus has been inundated with migrants for several years. ( Agencja Wyborcza.pl: Agnieszka Sadowska )
While Poland and Belarus are not yet fighting with weapons, analysts warn Mr Putin's puppet state is waging a different kind of battle: migrants.
There is evidence to suggest the country is sponsoring passage for thousands of people from the Middle East, and elsewhere, to its borders with EU nations, and advising them on how to cross successfully.
Polish soldiers stand guard at the country's border with Belarus. ( Reuters: Kuba Stezycki )
Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko has even said he wants to flood Europe's democracies with "migrants and drugs".
A sudden influx of either could be politically destabilising for his country's neighbours, and force them to divert precious government resources to combat any crisis.
Drones another line of defence
Poland's massive military expansion goes well beyond the slated increase in troops.
Using Ukraine as a blueprint, the country is rapidly increasing the number of drones it has in its arsenal, too.
Unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, have become a critical part of how Ukraine and Russia are trading blows on the battlefield.
Kyiv's surprise attack on multiple Russian air bases earlier this month, which involved smuggling drones over the border and directing them to blow up warplanes from thousands of kilometres away, perhaps best underscored how effective they can be.
Polish company WB Electronics has been "ahead of the curve" in this space, says John Bason, one of its advisers.
Initially, the business made drones with cameras on board.
Now they have warheads attached, to carry out "kamikaze-style" missions.
"Ukraine has used these very effectively. They've led to a change in the way modern warfare is done, and we're a big part of that," Mr Bason says.
WB Electronics has increased its drone production by "250 fold" over the past three years, the adviser says, and can now manufacture around 1,000 a month.
There are plans for further expansion, too, to meet demand.
"It's not just Ukraine," Mr Bason explains, pointing out a wider conflict in the future, involving more nations, was not out of the question.
"Poland is looking to make itself ready for a potential invasion, so they've activated multiple programs in order to be able to increase their drone inventory.
"Countries like the UK, France, Germany and Australia. This is a capability they're going to need."
WB Electronics adviser John Bason says the company has increased drone production significantly. ( ABC News: Riley Stuart )
According to a report released earlier this month by California-based research organisation RAND, Poland plans to create two new heavy divisions in its army, which will be equipped with advanced armoured vehicles, artillery and air-defence systems.
It will also completely revamp its air force by refurbishing and modernising existing assets and procuring dozens of new warplanes.
On the water, it will acquire three modern frigates, and explore "options for a small submarine force", according to the report.
The document describes the country's armed forces as being "at a crossroads".
"If Poland fails to realise its plans, it might come out of this moment relatively weakened and vulnerable," it says.
'We see the Russian danger'
Financing Poland's rapid defence expansion will be a balancing act for officials in Warsaw, and comes amid the country's significant military and monetary support for Ukraine, estimated to be more than $6 billion since Russia's full-scale invasion began.
Poland has also borne the brunt of the refugee crisis sparked by the war, with around 1 million Ukrainians remaining in the country, according to a UK government estimate.
But three years after the influx began, some Poles are becoming hostile towards their country's new inhabitants.
Reports of racism directed at Ukrainians are on the rise, and Poland's services have been stretched.
A divisive presidential election campaign last month also fuelled tensions.
The conservative victor, Karol Nawrocki, has been compared to Donald Trump and has made it clear his priority is "Poland first", which could affect aid to Ukraine.
Karol Nawrocki celebrates his election win earlier this month. ( Reuters: Aleksandra Szmigiel )
For companies like WB Electronics, the threat of war is an undeniable business opportunity.
But it is also close to home.
"We see the Russian danger. Historically, Poland has come under threat from Russia on multiple occasions, so this is something that Poland takes seriously," Mr Bason says.
"A lot more needs to be done in order to thwart any further Russian advances, and everything that we hear from Russia suggests that they are not going to stop at Ukraine.
"They will be quite keen to advance and to go further."
Not everyone agrees.
A soldier looks on during a voluntary military training session, near Warsaw, in May. ( ABC News: Riley Stuart )
Back on the border with Kaliningrad, local woman Maria Chlopiecka is not concerned.
She's lived in the area for 40 years, has friends in Russia, and is angry about what the Polish army and government are doing here.
"They're building barriers. What's the point? I don't like it," she says.
"I don't think we're in any real danger. To me, it feels like political manipulation."
Still, the massive project rolls on a few kilometres from her home.
Another resident, aged 71, tells us Mr Putin poses a serious threat to Poland.
"I'm scared, I won't hide it," the woman says, adding that she's considering moving in with her daughter, who lives in Spain.
"Everyone's afraid. We see what's happening in Ukraine," she says.
There are concerns Poland could be a target for Vladimir Putin. ( ABC News: Riley Stuart )
Farmland near Poland's border with Kaliningrad is making way for new defences. ( ABC News: Riley Stuart )
Ditches like this near Poland's border with Kaliningrad are being dug to make a Russian invasion more difficult. ( ABC News: Riley Stuart )
During our tour of the latest East Shield construction site, land once used to grow crops is being ripped up to make way for ditches and concrete barriers.
Lieutenant Misiarz strides around the project, showing off where landmines will be positioned, should they ever be needed.
"In the beginning, people were somewhat sceptical," she says.
"The public didn't quite understand [what we are doing]."
As she reminds us about the threat facing Poland, her eyes shift to scan a thick forest about 50 metres away, on the Russian side of the border, admitting: "I have no idea what's behind that line of trees."
There are clues, though.
Every now and then, she says, local farmers have reported spotting Mr Putin's troops moving between the foliage.
A sign, perhaps, the new defences may be needed soon.
Concrete anti-tank 'hedgehogs' now punctuate Poland's border with Kaliningrad. ( ABC News: Riley Stuart )
Credits:
Reporting: Riley Stuart, Elias Clure
Camera operators: Daniel Pannett
Fixer: Tetiana Smyrnova