UK's threats from four counties amid fears of nuclear and biological warfare

Daily Mirror

5 days ago

The UK faces multiple threats as the world becomes increasingly unstable with Prime Minister Keir Starmer ordering a review to enhance the country's defence capabilities, setting it on the path of war readiness
The UK faces increased threats as the world enters a new era of "greater instability" forcing Prime Minister Keir Starmer to unveil a new defence review to prepare for war.
The Armed Forces overhaul is aimed at defending against an increasingly aggressive Russia whilst long-term China wants to double its nuclear warhead silos to 1,000 by 2030. Further threats, it warns, are emerging from Iran and North Korea and all four are growing closer ties as the world becomes increasingly hostile. As well conventional missiles, among the growing threats from hostile states are 'pathogen' spreading biological weapons which need defending against,
‌
‌
In the SDR it calls out all four hostile states Russia, Iran, China and North Korea, declaring that Putin's Moscow can rebuild its shattered military even if the Ukraine war ends. It says that when the three reviewers who compiled the SDR were asked to launch it nearly a year ago…'the world was already in turmoil."
The SDR warns the UKs secret Porton Down biological and chemical centre must be maintained as 'essential and urgent activity.' It says bio-war is 'redefining warfare' and warns hostile states 'engineering biology that could potentially cause 'enormous harm in the shape of new pathogens and other weapons of mass destruction.'
The UK itself faces threat if NATO went to war and come under attack from waves of 'missile attack from long-range drones, cruise and ballistic missiles targeting military infrastructure and critical national infrastructure.' All four hostile states represent a soaring threat and increasingly they are joining hands. The SDR warns: 'China and Russia have deepened their relationship and there will continue to be grounds for both strategic and opportunistic alignment with Iran and the DPRK - North Korea.'
One source close to the review told the Daily Mirror: 'Nobody wants to go to war with China of course. But we are very aware of China's emerging place in the world and you can safely make assumptions about how China's military technology will change in the future.'
The source stressed that any threat of war Britain will face in the future is likely beyond the control of the UK, adding: "You also have to remember that the benchmark for clock, what will happen in the future and controlling that timing is owned by other people and not us.'
These are the countries that threaten the UK and global stability...
‌
Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made no secret that he wants to restore the old borders of Moscow-led empires, no matter the cost. Europe was thrown into its first major conflict since the end of WW2 when Putin ordered his troops to invade neighbouring Ukraine, a resource rich nation many times smaller than Russia.
The SDR says when the three reviewers who compiled the report were asked to launch it almost a year ago, the worl was "already in turmoil" - partly as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It stated: 'Russia, a nuclear-armed state had invaded and brutally occupied part of a neighbouring sovereign state.
‌
'And in doing this it was supported by China, supplied with equipment from Iran and by troops from North Korea, deployed in Europe for the first time ever. The sheer unpredictability of these and other global events, combined with the velocity of change in every area, has created alarming new threats and vulnerabilities for our country- and dangerous complexity in the world.'
Should a peace deal be secured, it is likely Russia will retain control of occupied eastern Ukraine, emboldening the Kremlin to regroup and advance on former members of the Soviet Union. Numerous military analysts believe the Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia are most at risk - all are small countries and would give Russia greater access to the sea, posing a threat to the Nordic countries, Poland and Germany.
But the UK remains a threat to Russia's ambitions as a member of the NATO defensive alliance. The Kremlin obviously views the UK as a threat, having ordered its mouthpieces to threaten nuclear annihilation on public TV and carrying out assassinations and attempted killings in the country.
‌
As well as Russia's trench warfare in Ukraine the report even delivers a stark warning of China fast developing space warfare technology that can threaten UK satellite systems. In a chilling warning it says: 'Russia's war economy if sustained will enable it to rebuild its land capabilities more quickly in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine makes unequivocally clear its willingness to use force to achieve its goals."
Russia's military in numbers: Estimated 1.32 million active military personnel, increased to 3.57 million when including reserve forces and an estimated 5,459 nuclear warheads.
China
‌
While Western leaders have been occupied with the ongoing war in Ukraine, Communist leaders in Beijing have been biding their time to launch an invasion of Taiwan. US Defense Secretary Hegseth warned last week of an "imminent" threat to Taiwan during a high-level Asia defence summit. The warning rattled the international community as the last time US officials warned of an "imminent" threat, Russia invaded Ukraine.
The SDR added: "'China is increasingly leveraging its economic , technological and military capabilities.. This includes: a vast increase in advanced platforms and weapons systems such as space warfare capabilities, an unprecedented diversification and growth of its conventional and nuclear missile forces with missiles that can reach the UK and Europe.'
China's leader Xi Jinping has eyed forcibly incorporating Taiwan into the country, viewing the independent state as a breakaway territory lost during what Beijing views as its "Century of Humiliation," where former imperial territory was lost or ceded away. Beyond a territorial expansion, China would benefit from securing the world-leading Taiwanese microchip manufacturing, an integral part of data storage in numerous technologies, such as AI, 5G connectivity and routers to name a few.
‌
Securing microchips could cost Brits much more should China limit access to the resource, setting back UK defence and civilian projects or by increasing the cost substantially. A Chinese victory in Taiwan would also put South East Asia on high alert, potentially pivoting them toward Beijing's sphere of influence at the detriment of any blossoming deals that the UK can secure post Brexit.
And worryingly on the China threat the SDR warns of: 'More types and greater numbers of nuclear weapons than ever before with its arsenal expected to double to 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.'
China's military in numbers: Estimated 2 million active military personnel, increased to 2.51 million when including reserves and 600 nuclear weapons.
‌
Threat of Iran-Israel Conflict
The aftermath of the October 7 terror attack in Israel has exposed the UK and other Western leaders to the possibility of yet another conflict in the Middle East. Following the Hamas-led mass murder of Israelis, the country's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched a major offensive against Gaza, rendering the Palestinian territory to rubble.
Netanyahu also seized on his military advantage to dismantle Hamas and Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist organisation Hezbollah. Denied of Hezbollah's backing, Syrian militants dethroned the Assad regime that had destroyed the country in a vicious civil war and, in effect, toppling on of Iran's major allies in the region.
‌
Feeling emboldened by his military victories, Netanyahu has stepped up bombing campaigns in Gaza, leading to international condemnation and controversial calls of "genocide" from its detractors, while also setting his sights on Iran. Mr Netanyahu has claimed, over the decades, that Iran poses an existential threat to Israel and has called on international allies to help the country take part in military operations against Tehran. Any attack on Iran could cause major instability in the region, potentially fuelling a mass migration crisis, similar to that seen during the Syrian Civil War of the mid-2010s.
On Iran the report says: 'Iran will continue to conduct destabilising activities across the region, including sponsoring proxies such as Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iranian aligned Iraqi militias. Its escalating nuclear programme presents a risk to international security…" It adds that both Iran and North Korea "are developing missile programmes with growing reach and they continue to pose a direct threat to the UK in cyberspace.'
Israel's military in numbers: Estimated 169,500 active personnel, this is boosted by 465,00 reservists and estimated between 90 to 300 nuclear weapons.
‌
Iran's military in numbers: Estimated 610,000 active troops, 350,000 reserve fighters and 220,000 paramilitary personnel.
North Korea
North Korea has proved itself to be a major destabilising force from launching numerous cyber attacks to sending its special forces to fight on European soil on behalf of one of the UK's enemies. Cyber hackers, sponsored by the North Korean dictatorship, are believed to be behind attempts to steal UK nuclear secrets, according to the National Cyber Security Centre's (NCSC) major warning about the state last year.
‌
Paul Chichester, NCSC director or operations, previously said: "The global cyber espionage operation that we have exposed today shows the lengths that DPRK state-sponsored actors are willing to go to pursue their military and nuclear programmes. It should remind critical infrastructure operators of the importance of protecting the sensitive information and intellectual property they hold on their systems to prevent theft and misuse.
"The NCSC, alongside our US and Korean partners, strongly encourage network defenders to follow the guidance set out in this advisory to ensure they have strong protections in place to prevent this malicious activity."
North Korea's military in numbers: Estimated 1,3 active personnel, up to 600,000 reservists and an estimated 90 nuclear warheads.
‌
Analysis by Mirror Defence and Security Editor Chris Hughes
This has been called the biggest change to UK defence in around 150 years - and on the face of it that could well be the case. That is if any of the much-vaunted changes actually come about and within the time it is being suggested they need to happen. Take the army numbers for instance. Many hoped these would be boosted from less than 73,000 as they currently stand.
This is by no means intentional even though numbers were brutally cut over years of Tory rule. It is a result of poor recruitment and retention. There is only the possibility of a 'small uplift.'
It says: 'Overall we envisage an increase in the total of Regular personnel when finding allows. This includes a small uplift in Army Regulars as a priority.' But there is mention of 'increasing the number of Active Reserves by 20% - when funding allows - most likely in the 2030s…'
‌
There is no promise to increase troop numbers and it merely means they might be increased if we can afford it if and when the need arises. The SDR - the most important one in decades - comes at a time of soaring hostility with Russia, whilst China, Iran and North Korea are also threats of varying degrees.
And it promises a great deal whilst the big question is whether it will deliver too. One of the biggest problems for the UK in time of war would be air defences, how to shoot down incoming missiles.
Currently, if it were large and fast incoming missiles this might be undertaken by one the UK's Type 45 destroyers, as a sea to air defence or F35B or Typhoon fighter jets as in air-to-air. Or the Army may use Sky Sabre, a lorry mounted air defence system which replaced Rapier. That system fires anti-air missiles.
‌
In his introduction Mr Healey clearly says: 'We will protect the UK homeland with up to £1bn new funding invested in homeland air and missile defence and creating a new CyberEM Command to defend Britain from daily attacks in the grey zone.'
But it turns out this is not a shiny new air defence system such as Israel had, like the Iron Dome or David's Sling. It is merely a continuation of the Type 45 - fighter jet defences, just with better communication and integration. Like many reviews, the lack of granularity could make you suspect there's not much in it.
The emphasis on AI, the risk of space wars, combating the threat from cyber assaults is all there and alarming and reassuring at the same time. It is reassuring the weapons production is being stepped up with six new missiles factories being created, boosting jobs and UK defences.
But we don't know what they are, if they are new or what will fire them. The very fact this review happened is good and shows the government is getting things done on defence. But there will be huge trade-offs, perhaps with manning moving aside for new high-tech weaponry. Cost is going to be a huge issue and it remains to be seen if all of this can be afforded.