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Zawya
13 hours ago
- Zawya
Niger's Economy Rebounds in 2024 Thanks to Large-Scale Oil Exports and a Good Agricultural Season
Niger's economy recorded robust growth in 2024, driven by large-scale oil exports. However, short-term sources of growth remain limited and exposed to downside risks, according to the World Bank's latest economic update for Niger, published today. The report analyzes the country's economic, and poverty trends and provides a three-year outlook. A special chapter is dedicated to analyzing Niger's agri-food system, offering recommendations for its effective transformation. According to the report, Niger's economy grew by 8.4% in 2024, up from 2% in 2023. This acceleration was primarily fueled by the start of large-scale oil exports and strong agricultural production, supported by favorable weather conditions. Despite high inflation, including rising food prices, sustained growth contributed to a reduction of extreme poverty. Government revenues fell in 2024 due to a decrease in tax revenues – particularly trade-related taxes – leading to a reduction in investment spending. The resulting deficit, combined with a rapid accumulation of debt, led the IMF and World Bank to jointly downgrade Niger's debt sustainability risk rating from moderate to high. ' Economic growth is expected to remain relatively high in the short-term, but Niger's sources of growth – oil and rain-fed agriculture – are limited and vulnerable to shocks and volatility,' said Han Fraeters, World Bank Country Manager for Niger. ' Investing in an efficient and resilient agri-food system is crucial if Niger is to achieve long-term, sustainable, and inclusive growth.' Economic growth is projected to slow down in 2025, due to a high base effect from 2024 but is expected to remain above 6%, supported by the continued expansion of the oil sector. Inflation is expected to ease, thanks to the strong 2024 harvest. The extreme poverty rate is project to decline in 2025-2027 if agricultural output remains robust. However, food insecurity will remain a challenge. ' If security risks are contained and efforts to expand irrigation are successful, growth could be higher,' said Danon Gnezale, Economist at the World Bank and co-author of the report. ' Several options exist to strengthen the agri-food system, including strengthening value chains and producer organizations, investing in climate-smart agriculture technologies, adopting better regulations, and improving infrastructure.' Distributed by APO Group on behalf of The World Bank Group.
Zawya
a day ago
- Zawya
Oman: IMF hails CBO's transparency, offers roadmap for enhancements
MUSCAT: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has commended the Central Bank of Oman (CBO) for its proactive steps in enhancing transparency, governance, and monetary policy communication, as highlighted in a landmark Central Bank Transparency (CBT) Review—the first of its kind in the GCC region. Conducted under the IMF's CBT Code, the review — completed in April 2025 and released by the IMF this June — underscores the CBO's alignment with Oman Vision 2040 and its efforts to uphold international best practices. The IMF described the CBO as a trusted and credible public institution with a legal framework firmly underpinning its transparency policies. At the core of the CBO's operational mandate is the maintenance of a fixed peg of the Omani Rial to the US Dollar—a policy sustained through active liquidity management and strong foreign exchange reserves. The IMF praised the central bank for its disclosure of monetary policy objectives, operational frameworks, and the role of liquidity management in supporting the peg. However, the Fund suggested that further transparency gains could be achieved by detailing the decision-making process behind these policies and disseminating key data in formats more accessible to external users. Enhanced publication of frameworks related to counterparties, collateral, and reserve requirements were also recommended. GOVERNANCE AND ACCOUNTABILITY The IMF acknowledged the CBO's well-established internal governance transparency framework, including disclosures on its board structure, decision-making process, and leadership. To raise standards even further, the IMF advised the CBO to place greater emphasis on internal independence, accountability, and risk management. The addition of an explicit access-to-information policy and the publication of existing internal risk and oversight arrangements were highlighted as "quick wins" for improving governance transparency, as many of these structures are already in place but not fully disclosed. With its expanding mandate in financial stability, the CBO now legally holds responsibilities for Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) and macroprudential policy. The IMF noted that while the CBO has made significant efforts to clarify its role, greater transparency is needed regarding the scope of its financial stability mandate, available tools, and coordination mechanisms with other financial agencies. As these shared responsibilities grow, delineating roles and publishing relevant legal and operational frameworks will enhance public and institutional understanding of the CBO's oversight role. AML/CFT SUPERVISION As the designated Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) supervisory authority for financial institutions under its jurisdiction, the CBO has actively disclosed its legal powers, policies, and supervisory practices. However, the IMF sees room for improvement, especially in public communication of implementation outcomes. The upcoming release of a mutual evaluation report presents an opportunity for the CBO to strengthen communication on its AML/CFT achievements through its website and other outreach platforms. Public appetite for more accessible engagement with the central bank is growing. The IMF urged the CBO to consider simplifying its disclosures for wider public understanding and to expand educational and outreach efforts. This could involve deeper use of social media and communication tools to reinforce transparency and maintain institutional trust. ROADMAP FOR REFORM To help operationalise the findings, the IMF shared a draft Implementation Roadmap, outlining actionable recommendations. The Fund also reiterated its readiness to support Omani authorities in the implementation phase. Overall, the CBT review signals a strong performance by the CBO in aligning with global central banking standards, while identifying opportunities for reform that will solidify Oman's financial credibility and public trust in its monetary authority. 2022 © All right reserved for Oman Establishment for Press, Publication and Advertising (OEPPA) Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
Zawya
2 days ago
- Zawya
Pakistan's plan to sharply increase growth faces headwinds, analysts say
Pakistan is aiming to sharply increase economic growth under its annual federal budget unveiled on Tuesday, but analysts are sceptical about the country's ability to meet its ambitious goals. The budget targets higher revenues and a steep fiscal deficit cut under International Monetary Fund (IMF) backed reforms. Yet, defence spending was hiked 20%, excluding military pensions, after last month's conflict with India. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said in a post-budget press conference on Wednesday that customs duties have been cut or removed on thousands of raw materials and intermediate goods. 'Industry here has to be competitive, competitive enough to export,' he said. But growth drivers remain unclear. The government is targeting 4.2% GDP growth in fiscal 2026, up from 2.7% this year, which was revised down from an initial 3.6% as agriculture and large-scale manufacturing underperformed. 'Pakistan's GDP growth projection of 4.2% appears ambitious given recent performance, and overly optimistic assumptions may place tax targets out of reach,' said Callee Davis, senior economist at Oxford Economics. Pakistan's past growth spurts were consumption-led, triggering balance-of-payments crises and IMF bailouts. The government says it now wants higher-quality, investment-driven growth. Aurangzeb said structural reforms are underway, pointing to East Asia-style pro-market transitions. 'This is an East Asia moment for Pakistan,' he said. The 17.57 trillion rupee ($62.24 billion) budget comes as Pakistan remains under a $7 billion IMF programme. Revenues are projected to rise over 14%, driven by new taxes and broadening the tax base. The fiscal deficit is targeted at 3.9% of GDP, down from this year's 5.9%. Key reforms include taxing agriculture, real estate, and retail, and reviving stalled privatisations. But revenue shortfalls this year have raised doubts, with both agriculture income tax and retail collections missing targets. Only 1.3% of the population paid income tax in 2024, government data shows. 'Pakistan's budget keeps the IMF and investors happy, even if it comes at a near-term cost to growth,' said Hasnain Malik, head of equity strategy at Tellimer. 'The political setup, with the military firmly in charge, also lowers the risk of protests.' While overall spending will fall 7%, defence will rise after the worst fighting between the nuclear-armed neighbours in decades. Including pensions, defence spending will total $12 billion, 19% of the federal budget or 2.5% of GDP, matching India's share, per World Bank data. The hike was enabled by a sharp drop in interest payments, as the central bank cut policy rates from 22% to 11% over the past year, easing domestic debt servicing costs. Aurangzeb said cuts in subsidies also helped create fiscal space. ($1 = 282.3000 Pakistani rupees) (Reporting by Ariba Shahid in Islamabad; additional reporting by Karin Strohecker in London; Writing by Ariba Shahid and Saeed Shah; Editing by Kim Coghill)
