Five-yearly Census to be scrapped from 2030, replaced with administrative data, annual surveys
The Census has been taken in the same format for more than 70 years, but those days are over.
Photo:
RNZ
New Zealanders have filled out their last traditional Census form, with the five-yearly count scrapped from 2030.
Statistics Minister Shane Reti announced today that the Census - which has existed in a similar format for more than 70 years - will be replaced with a combination of administrative data from other government agencies and smaller annual surveys that a sample of the population will complete.
There will be no 2028 Census.
The announcement was made just as England and Wales looks set to abandon a similar approach for their 2031 Census, with the
UK Statistical Agency recommending that a traditional Census go ahead instead
.
Reti said he was confident the approach would work in New Zealand.
"Amongst other things, we've got a smaller population so it's a smaller problem to grapple with," he said.
Stats NZ, which governs the Census, said there would be a lot of work over the next five years to ensure the administrative data it will rely on is up to scratch.
Acting chief statistician Mary Craig said the agency was already working with other government departments.
"Some of the Census data is almost at the level we will need it, and others not so much," she said.
"There's a level of data from everybody, but does it actually have all the attributes that we would need for this type of exercise? No."
The change follows
a major review carried out last year
, after the 2023 Census.
Reti said the traditional Census was "no longer financially viable".
"Despite the unsustainable and escalating costs, successive censuses have been beset with issues or failed to meet expectations," he said.
An attempt to shift the Census online in 2018 was a failure, with
much lower than normal completion rates that affected Māori particularly badly
.
The fallout prompted the chief statistician to resign, and the 2023 Census was shifted back to a paper form.
However, completion rates were still lower than previous years, with only 88 percent of the population filling out and returning the 2023 form.
The Census does more than just provide
interesting insights
into how New Zealand is changing - it serves some crucial democratic functions.
It helps to determine how and where government funding is spent for basic services and infrastructure like hospitals and schools, now and in the future .
The population count also determines how many electorates there are, and where their boundaries should be drawn.
The Census is also the only nation-wide survey of housing conditions - collecting information on the size of each dwelling, the number of people living there, and which basic services like internet are available.
Reti said not only would the new approach save time and money, it would also provide "more timely insights" into New Zealand's population.
The most recent Census cost $325 million, and the data analysis involved meant the first results were not released until mid-2024.
"By leveraging data already collected by government agencies, we can produce key census statistics every year, better informing decisions that affect people's lives," Reti said.
A Census has been held in New Zealand every five years since 1851, with only a few exceptions - most recently following the 2011 Christchurch earthquake.
This will be the biggest change to how the Census is conducted since 1951, when the same Census form was filled out by Māori and European New Zealanders for the first time.
Administrative data would form the "backbone" of the new system, with surveys
- which will begin in 2027 -
helping to fill in data gaps, especially for smaller populations.
The administrative data used would include information from tax records, education enrolments, health data, student loans and allowances and ACC injury claims.
Some statisticians and demographers have warned that any move away from a traditional Census that attempts to count and survey the entire population will need to be done carefully and transparently.
Last year, a group of senior researchers at the Public Health Communications Centre - many of whom rely on Census data for their work - said there was a role for administrative data.
However, it had been shown to "not be up to the task in many areas, such as understanding households or people's health and well-being, compared with survey data",
they wrote
.
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