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Rising African star is Kremlin-backed revolutionary capitalising on anti-West sentiment

Rising African star is Kremlin-backed revolutionary capitalising on anti-West sentiment

Telegraph18-05-2025

When Capt Ibrahim Traore met Vladimir Putin across a broad Kremlin table last week, many in Russia or indeed Europe may have been unaware who this charismatic young visitor in a red beret and battle dress was.
In swathes of Africa however, with help from Russia, his face and name have recently been unavoidable, particularly on social media.
The youngest leader on the continent after a 2022 coup brought him to power in Burkina Faso, he is seen by many disillusioned youth as a messianic figure following in a line of African revolutionaries.
His message of self-reliance and independence from the West, particularly from France, the former colonial ruler, has resonated with frustrated young people across Africa looking for political saviours.
At the age of 37, Mr Traore is also a far cry from the continental caricature of a doddering octogenarian ruling over a population where the average age is still in the teens.
Some even see him as a reincarnation of Thomas Sankara, the Burkinabe Marxist and pan-Africanist revolutionary who ruled for four years in the 1980s.
Yet analysts and diplomats say while his burgeoning reputation is rooted in genuine disillusion with Africa's leadership and his desire for more equal relations with the West, it is also allegedly being expertly boosted and burnished by a Russian disinformation campaign.
The barrage of propaganda is aimed at building him up as an anti-Western icon and at distracting attention from Burkina Faso's dire security situation, which neither Mr Traore, nor his Russian backers have been able to fix.
His personality cult has in recent weeks been pushed into overdrive by a deluge of social media propaganda, often misleading, portraying him as a fearless reformer who defied Western powers and reclaimed his country's dignity.
This potent online myth-making has secured his place as a pan-African hero for many who contrast his vigour with the shortcomings of their own leaders.
'The rise of Traore is certainly making a lot of African leaders very uncomfortable,' says Ryan Cummings, a director of Signal Risk.
Mr Traore took power after a 2022 putsch capitalised on popular anger at the failure to deal with a bloody Islamist insurgency.
His junta quickly pivoted to kick out French troops and embrace Russia, alongside Mali and later Niger, creating a belt of pro-Kremlin military governments in the Sahel.
Moscow has agreed to provide mercenaries, arms and expertise, in return for access to the region's natural resources, notably gold.
Among the advantages of being aligned with Russia, is also access to the Kremlin's disinformation expertise, which has seemingly been put at the service of building Mr Traore into an African icon.
Widely shared posts have made misleading claims such as he has paid off the country's sovereign debt, that there are mass marches in the West in support of the Sahelian regimes, that Donald Trump has paid homage to Mr Traore's leadership, or that Burkina Faso has independently developed Africa's first electric cars.
In some of the most audacious propaganda released earlier this month, deepfake AI videos purportedly show stars including Beyonce and Rihanna singing anthems in his honour.
One ballad appears to show the Crazy in Love singer urging God to protect Mr Traore and relating how he 'kicked out the soldiers from the old regime,' and 'told the West we reclaim the dream'.
'The propaganda is utterly overwhelming and, while it's sometimes organic, the vast majority of it is intimately tied to Russia and potentially several of Moscow's Latin American allies,' says Will Brown of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
'The object is pretty clear – it's an anti-Western, anti-democratic agenda which glorifies strong man military leadership among a core base of disaffected youth.
'I think it's also increasingly about spreading anti-Western sentiment and hostile information through African diaspora populations.'
The military ruler has quickly become an icon beyond Burkina Faso's borders, used to chastise other leaders.
Last month, Hilda Dokubo, a Nigerian actress and politician, said: 'Ibrahim Traore is all the proof Nigerians need to know that a country takes the shape of its leadership and that Nigeria is where it is because of the wickedness of her leaders.'
Yet the sheen of Mr Traore's image contrasts with the reality of his junta and the terrible security conditions in the country.
Despite his pledge to tighten security, his forces are estimated to control as little as 35 per cent of the country, with jihadist groups like Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) besieging towns.
Data from the US-based Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project show that while 2,894 people were killed by both government and armed groups during the year before the 2022 coup. That number has reached 7,200 in the last year.
His regime is accused of abuses against civilians and cracking down on the media.
Militants launched a string of attacks on May 11 as Mr Traore made his way back from his meeting with Putin.
JNIM, a West African affiliate of al-Qaeda, said it had overrun an army base in the northern town of Djibo. It was impossible to verify claims that 200 soldiers had been killed, but satellite pictures showed widespread damage.
His military weakness may ultimately make him vulnerable to another coup and may be the reason Russia is making so much effort to build up his image.
Mr Cummings said: 'Traore is being propped up because he is the most vulnerable [of the Sahel junta leaders] to being overthrown.'
For all his anti-colonial rhetoric, he may also have traded one domineering partner for another.
He said: 'Preferential treatment that was being given to France is now just being given to Russia.'

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Global aid cuts are a massive wake-up call. It's time to give Africa a bigger voice
Global aid cuts are a massive wake-up call. It's time to give Africa a bigger voice

The Independent

time3 hours ago

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Global aid cuts are a massive wake-up call. It's time to give Africa a bigger voice

In less than a month, Seville will host the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development in a climate of uncertainty following the abrupt decision by the US to dismantle its aid programmes. But Washington is not alone in this posture. The European Union agreed to reallocate €2 billion (£1.7bn) reallocation from development budgets in February 2024 —and many individual European countries have made cuts to their aid budget. It is a clear signal that the landscape of Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) is shifting. For Africa, this isn't just a reshuffle, it is a wake-up call for deep reflection and action: will we adapt, or will aid simply become a relic of the past? The timing is bad, the rationale questionable, and the ripple effects threaten to impact the lives and health of millions depending on aid programmes. Let's be honest: aid has had a mixed impact. The spectrum of aid's legacy in Africa, including my country, Guinea, runs from positive to disastrous. On the positive side, aid has contributed to infrastructure development – I'm thinking for instance about a project in northwest Guinea to replace an old ferry with a new road and bridge. During a visit, a cunning minister of public works convinced a skeptical partner to go on a very 'special' field trip via the old route, one that left a senior official so sore and tired that all doubters saw the project's true necessity. Once it was completed, traffic soared, proof that aid can work when it's aligned with real needs. But aid can fall flat. When I was serving as minister of finance, I led efforts to curb directly awarded contracts and boost transparency following an audit of public procurement procedures. The goal was to improve the quality and cost-effectiveness of public spending. But some donors were not willing to support this effort. I deplored one particular partner's failure to listen and, above all, a stubborn insistence on taking us backwards by ignoring our analysis. I said no to the help on offer. It was hard but necessary. Aid must serve the real priorities, not satisfy bureaucratic checkboxes. In a recent discussion with the director of an incubator to help small and medium-sized businesses grow – funded by a government donor – I was struck by the emergence of shortcomings I thought belonged to the past. These included a laziness to question one's own model for delivering results, despite warnings about the risks of inefficiency. We also see a narrow focus on so-called "easily accessible" geographic areas, such as capitals, and on disbursements. Aid, in many cases, has helped sustain corrupt elites or fostered unhealthy alliances with public administrations – perpetuating dependency rather than solving problems. When I look back on my own experience in development – a journey close to an out-of-body experience for an African – I realise we are at a critical juncture. It's the moment to question the very foundations of aid institutions inherited from the post-colonial era. Despite some positive reforms, such as untying aid, the core premise remains unequal. It is predominantly driven by the donors, with African countries still being passive recipients rather than active partners. How can this be changed? Change starts with listening. The 'receiving hand' is not dumb and has ideas. It knows its needs. Recipient countries, especially in Africa, must be at the centre of the discussions. Conversations largely driven by donors are a recipe for failure. Furthermore, African organisations and think-tanks must be active players. Decolonising aid must be more than just a buzzword. We are making progress, but it must be accelerated. We continue to see consultancies denied opportunities due to insufficient financial strength – despite their thorough knowledge of the field. It also means better coordination between donors. You would think this is obvious, and yet despite witnessing many innovative and pragmatic approaches, I still see some partners continue to burden governments' limited capacities by each imposing their own distinct systems and reporting requirements. This ends up being a distraction. Recipient governments are key and are the only ones who should replace any donor. I believe the cuts could be an opportunity to make fiscal compromises that (finally) prioritise the necessary and the productive over the superfluous and the personal gain of some actors. Aid must be used strategically and selectively. It should foster technical cooperation for Africa's economic transformation, its integration higher in global value chains. Aid should be a catalyst to reform the global financial architecture by leveraging innovation and the capital needed to finance our massive infrastructure programmes. It must be an instrument for the Africa Union's theme of the year: "Justice for Africans and People of African Descent Through Reparations'. It's time to make sure those people are at the table, and their voices are listened to.

Death, violence and endless delay: Inside Africa's most troubled energy project
Death, violence and endless delay: Inside Africa's most troubled energy project

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Death, violence and endless delay: Inside Africa's most troubled energy project

Campaigners have demanded the UK government pull its funding for a natural gas mega project in Mozambique – alleging that it breaches Britain's human rights and environmental obligations. The project in question is a $20 billion (£15bn) liquified natural gas (LNG) development located in the Cabo Delgado region of Mozambique. The project, called Mozambique LNG, has been halted since 2021 after violence from an Isis-backed group led to 183 contractors being trapped in a hotel for two days, with 10 people killed when apparently trying to escape, including British national Philip Mawer. In all, the ongoing insurgency in the area has resulted in an estimated 6,000 deaths since the conflict began in 2017, with some 600,000 people displaced. In a letter seen by The Independent, campaign group Oil Change International (OCI) argues that the violence and other issues over the protection of the project makes a potential $1.15bn investment by UK Export Finance, a department of the UK government untenable. Continuing to finance the project is also not compatible with environmental commitments made in 2021 to no longer finance fossil fuels abroad, OCI argues. A tale of violence, delay and legal action was never meant to be the story of Mozambique's foray into natural gas, after some 180 trillion cubic feet of gas was discovered off the country's coast in 2010. In 2016, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected 34 per cent GDP growth for Mozambique by 2021. However, actual economic growth was around 2.5 per cent. TotalEnergies, the French energy firm, is currently in the process of trying to re-start the project by the middle of this year. 'The security situation has improved," CEO Patrick Pouyanne told Reuters on the sidelines of the World Gas conference earlier this month. Pouyanne's ambitions received a big boost in March when the US Export-Import Bank re-approved financial support worth $4.7bn for the project, boosting TotalEnergies' hopes of restarting the project. But the future of Mozambique LNG remains up in the air, with the British export credit agency still considering whether to recommit to its $1.15bn pledge – having joining with 33 countries, including the US, to sign a pledge to end public finance for fossil fuel projects abroad while hosting the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow in 2021. According to OCI campaigner Adam McGibbon, if the UK pulls out of the deal then the entire financial arrangement is expected to collapse. 'We know of at least one major bank involved in the deal that has said they will also pull out if the UK does,' he says. The legal letter sent by OCI argues that the funding of the LNG project in Mozambique goes against the UK's obligations under international law to promote human rights in business both domestically and abroad. The letter highlights the UN's Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights, which state that companies and nations must ensure that human rights are respected in relation to business operations. A UK Export Finance spokesperson said: 'UK Export Finance is currently in talks with project sponsors and other lenders regarding the latest status of the LNG production project in Mozambique. 'We take reports of alleged human rights infringement extremely seriously and are looking further into the matters.' 'The Qatar of Africa' Observers at the time the gas was discovered off the coast of Mozambique suggested that the country – one of the world's poorest – could transform into the 'Qatar of Africa'. A number of massive projects aiming to ship the gas around the world in the form of LNG were soon proposed. TotalEnergies' Mozambique LNG project stands out for its sheer size, with the $20bn in financing a figure roughly the same size as Mozambique's entire GDP. The 65 trillion cubic feet of gas it was expected to deliver is the equivalent of six years of current EU gas demand. But in March 2021, the 'force majeure' declaration was made, which enables parties to renege on an agreement due to unforeseen external circumstances. It came after Islamist insurgents captured swathes of territory in the Cabo Delgado region, and at least 1,400 people were left killed or missing presumed dead. Earlier this year French authorities began investigating TotalEnergies over potential corporate manslaughter, after survivors and relatives of victims of the event accused the energy giant of failing to protect its workers. In a statement shared with The Independent, a spokesperson for TotalEnergies said that they will ' cooperate with this investigation', but that 'the company categorically rejects' the accusations. 'Mozambique LNG's teams provided emergency assistance and mobilised their resources to evacuate more than 2,500 people (civilians, employees, contractors, and subcontractors) from the site where the Mozambique LNG project is located at the time of the attacks,' the spokesperson said. But some say the need to resettle people so that the land can used for the project has aided recruitment for the insurgents. 'The local population is being deprived of jobs, in a scenario where pressure on land is increasing, where people are losing access to land, losing access to natural resources,' wrote local analyst Joao Feijo earlier this year. 'The discontent that is created here is very great and this kind of discontent is capitalised on by these violent groups. Many individuals joined this group because they had no other alternative,' he added. Signs of discontent can be found in villagers claiming that they have not been sufficiently compensated for giving up land that most rely on for subsistence farming, according to evidence collected by local NGO Justica Ambiental, after Mozambique LNG was given rights to 6,625 hectares of land to build its liquefaction terminal. 'We agreed that the company would take our areas, but when they took our areas – the forests and fields – and they didn't want to pay us, they denied it,' said Neto Agostino Paulo resident of Macala Village, in footage captured by Justica Ambiental in summer 2024. Fellow Macala villager Adija Momade Sumail Nkabwi said: 'The company came here to lie to us that they were going to compensate us for our property that they had occupied, leaving us with false expectations'. The spokesperson for TotalEnergies told The Independent that prior to the force majeure announcement, 89 per cent of compensation payments had been paid within six months of the signing of compensation agreements, and 66 per cent were paid within 90 days. 'The Force Majeure situation has prevented the full implementation of the relocation and compensation process and has slowed down the exercise,' they said. 'Drill baby, drill' For OCI's Adam McGibbon, the violence and displacement witnessed in Cabo Delgado is a 'classic example of the resource curse': The phenomenon where resource-rich countries with abundant natural resources ironically end up with a multitude of problems. Nigeria and Angola – both oil-rich countries plagued by corruption and inequality – are oft-cited examples of countries to have suffered this fate in Africa. At the same time, it has also been said that given the low living standards of countries like Mozambique, any opportunity to bring in billions of dollars of foreign investment is a good thing. Some, like former Irish President Mary Robinson, have argued that African nations should be allowed to extract natural gas to develop. But there are growing concerns that the economic benefits originally conceived in Mozambique LNG might not ever materialise, even if the project goes ahead as planned. For all the talk of ' Drill baby, drill ' coming from Donald Trump in the White House right now, the prospects of a major new LNG production terminal are much weaker than in 2020. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and subsequently shut off pipeline gas flows to Europe, planned new LNG facilities in the US and Qatar have driven up projections of global LNG capacity. An increase of nearly 50 per cent is currently on the horizon, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This ' LNG glut ', as the IEA describes it, is exacerbated by renewables continually beating targets in Europe and Asia, as well as a global push for 'energy security' that did not exist in 2020, and which is making governments less inclined to rely on expensive liquefied gas imports for energy. 'If and when TotalEnergies' Mozambique LNG project gets off the ground, it will be adding further supply into a market characterised by oversupply and lacklustre demand,' says Simon Nicholas, from IEEFA, a think tank. 'This can hardly be a surprise: There is a long history in Sub-Saharan Africa of fossil fuel projects doing nothing to boost development in the host country.' If global gas markets are oversupplied, there is a risk that Mozambique LNG will become a 'stranded asset', which will plummet in value – or even become a liability for Mozambique. Even a 'moderate-paced transition' away from fossil fuels globally would lead to Mozambique seeing gas revenues of just 20 per cent of what they would be in a slow-paced transition, a report from the think tank Carbon Tracker has found. The authors described countries looking to exploit oil and gas assets for the first time as making a 'significant gamble'. 'Huge economic costs' TotalEnergies has also structured its LNG deals in a way that activists have warned is disadvantageous to Mozambique, with revenues Mozambique set to come in the mid-2030s and 2040s, think tank IISD has said. This means that if the project does not see out its lifespan, TotalEnergies and other partners will have seen an outsize share of profits so far, with Mozambique losing out. Mozambique also faces 'substantial economic risks' related to investor-state dispute settlements (ISDS), a separate report from Columbia University found last year. ISDS are lawsuits where foreign investors sue countries where they have invested if they believe the government has violated the terms of the agreement. Mozambique's international investment agreements allow foreign investors to bypass the national judicial system in such disputes, the report found, while 'stabilisation clauses' protect investments from unexpected regulatory changes or new fiscal rules, potentially preventing Mozambique enacting new legislation to transition away from fossil fuels. 'What they have basically done is said Mozambique cannot invest in climate action without paying huge economic costs,' says Daniel Ribeiro, a Mozambican activist with Justica Ambiental. Such an arrangement is likely to 'only amplify social tensions in Cabo Delgado,' if little money is seen to reach local people while a Western company makes large profits, warns Ribeiro. Given the insurgency, delays, and economic concerns, it might seem the simplest thing for Mozambique to do would be to try and pull out of the deal. However, the country has racked up government debts since gas was discovered, using expected future gas revenues as collateral for borrowing. But expectations have not matched reality. The year 2016 also saw a corruption scandal rock the country after it was found that members of the Mozambican Government had secretly taken out loans for themselves from London-based banks, using assurances of future LNG gas revenues to do so. A 2023 report from Debt Justice found that the Mozambican government has been paying back some of those loans. Mozambique's external national debt more than doubled between 2010 and 2018, according to CEICC data, while Friends of the Earth has warned that potential corruption arising from the 'mere promises of LNG development' may have already cost the country more than any actual profit the project could generate for the country over its lifetime. For Ribeiro, who lives in the Mozambican capital of Maputo, the priority for the country should be investing in renewables and climate change adaptation. 'My main message is that the cost of climate change is going to be far greater than any profits from Mozambique LNG, and that should be the priority,' he says. The country is considered one of the most climate-vulnerable on the continent, exposed to extreme weather concerns including cyclones, droughts and floods. Cyclone Kenneth, which hit Cabo Delgado in 2019, caused damage estimated at $300m. But the Trump administration has a different idea about what is good for the country. Weeks before confirming its $4.7bn loan for Mozambique LNG, the US government shut down the USAID-backed Power Africa programme's operations in the country – with an emphasis on renewable energy – which has been leading efforts to boost energy access, in a country where only 40 per cent of the country's population has access to electricity. 'Cycle of death' The push to resume the Mozambique LNG project also comes despite the fact that the Islamist insurgency very much remains a threat. While insurgents no longer control full towns and villages, they have become more agile, and have stepped up the number of road blocks in recent weeks, according to local media. 'There are still believed to be several insurgency units of hundred or so people, and they still have the ability to make attacks and destabilise the area,' says Ribeiro. 'And every time they suffer losses, they continue to be able to recruit. Why? Because we are still not dealing with the economic and social drivers of the problem,' he adds. The EU is currently funding Rwandan troops to help protect the region - but this arrangement is also under threat due to accusations Rwanda has been supporting rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo, as well as allegations that the Mozambican government is using units trained by the EU for protest suppression. For Marisa Lourenço, an independent risk analyst in Southern Africa, the threat of violence is 'definitely still there' in Cabo Delgado. She believes that while TotalEnergies will be able to securely lock down its site on the coast, it remains unclear if doing so is worth the money. 'TotalEnergies can secure the site. But is the infrastructure cost worth it? Will it recoup its sunken costs? Probably not. TotalEnergies rushed into taking on this project, and I think it regrets it,' she believe. For Mozambique, meanwhile, it remains clear for Ribeiro that the best option is for the country to pull out of the project. 'Pulling out will cause a whole host of problems in the short term, but it will help us emerge from this cycle of death,' he says. So long as the project continues, the Western world can turn a blind eye to what is happening in Mozambique, by imagining that it is financially supporting the country, believes Ribeiro. But if the project fails, then the country can focus on other development pathways that actually benefit the people. 'It's like a chronic condition that keeps flaring up, for which there is no cure' he says. 'Sometimes you just need to take the bullet.'

Why the Kerch bridge must fall
Why the Kerch bridge must fall

Spectator

time4 hours ago

  • Spectator

Why the Kerch bridge must fall

Vladimir Putin has hit back against Ukraine's 'Spiderweb' operation, which recently destroyed or damaged at least two dozen Russian bombers. Overnight, Russia fired 45 missiles and more than 400 drones at Ukrainian cities and apartment blocks. At least six people were killed, including three rescuers searching for survivors in Kyiv. More than a hundred civilians were injured across the country. Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, claimed the mass attack on 'military targets' was a response to the 'terrorist acts of the Kyiv regime'. But Ukraine is far from done; the Kerch bridge, which links the occupied Crimea to the Russian mainland, is high on the hit list. This week, the Ukrainian secret service, the SBU, once again targeted the Kerch bridge.

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