Pacers on turnover battle in Game 3: Part 2

New York Times

12 hours ago

Oklahoma City rallies to tie the series at 2-2 after trailing for nearly the entire second half Imagn Images Getty Images
I do wonder if Rick Carlisle will continue to look for creative ways to get more safe pairs of hands on the floor. Through 19 games, Carlisle has played Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell together for 80 total minutes. That includes the final three minutes and 26 seconds of the second quarter on Wednesday, which the Pacers won 13-9 while not turning the ball over.
Overall, the Pacers are plus-32 in the 80 minutes the two point guards have shared the floor, with 51 assists to 25 turnovers. Don't read too much into that: The Pacers have shot 50 free throws in their time together, indicating they share the floor a lot in late-game situations where the Pacers need free-throw shooting and ball-handling on the floor.
Moreover, Andrew Nembhard picked up his third foul of Game 3 with more than five minutes remaining in the second quarter, resulting in Carlisle needing to find ways to get to the end of the half. The Pacers would be too defensively compromised to ride with the two guards together for too long.
Still, in a series in which turnovers are so important, I wonder if Carlisle would dare sacrificing some defensive versatility and offensive spacing in order to keep the Thunder from turning them over and running the other way. Getty Images
The Pacers won the turnover battle on Wednesday, a huge reason they won Game 3. The Thunder turned the ball over on just 11.7 percent of possessions during the regular season. Only one other team, the Boston Celtics, was below 13. On average, the Thunder's opponents turned the ball over 17 times per game to their own 11.7. Having five more possessions than your opponent based on that stat alone, as you might have guessed, is very meaningful.
The Pacers are a low-turnover team themselves, but we have seen moments in which the Thunder have turned them into a bunch of bumblers — the 19-turnover first half in Game 1 and the seven-turnover first quarter in Game 3 spring to mind.
In general, Tyrese Haliburton is the ultimate cheat code in this respect, a point guard who fuels a fast offense while not coughing the ball up often. He has help in the starting lineup, with Andrew Nembhard and Pascal Siakam both solid handlers for their position. Getty Images
There was so much talk before Game 3 of the 2025 NBA Finals about how Indiana Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton needed to be more aggressive for the Pacers to win this series against the Oklahoma City Thunder. But solving the stifling Thunder defense needed more than a mindset shift. It's not that simple at this level.
It's the NBA Finals, and these teams are more prepared for these games than any they've ever played in their lives. Basketball players will never get more awareness, resources and focus than they do between games 2 and 3 of the finals. This is the optimal time to show you can solve a puzzle, not just flip a switch.
That's what Haliburton, with the help of Pacers coach Rick Carlisle, did in Wednesday's 116-107 home win to take a 2-1 series lead.
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How Pacers nurtured an aggressive Tyrese Haliburton to seize control of NBA Finals Getty Images
You have to wonder if the Thunder will respond to Tyrese Haliburton's breakout game by changing how they matchup guarding Haliburton's pick-and-roll. The Thunder have been willing to 'next' him when in drop coverage, having the help defender switch onto him when he drives over the screen instead of the big. He is able to beat that coverage by either passing faking the nexter away or just snaking back to go downhill.
The Thunder do this mostly to protect Isaiah Hartenstein when he is in drop coverage, but it still allows Haliburton to get downhill and that's the biggest thing the Thunder defense wants to take away. They can either avoid this by having Hartenstein guard up to the screen level like Chet Holmgren does, having him switch or just limiting his minutes even more.
If they are going to stick with Hartenstein in drop, the Thunder may consider taking Lu Dort off of him more so that he can be in the help position. That means putting one of the guards on Haliburton and telling Dort to aggressively rotate over when they want to 'next' Haliburton.
As important as it is to keep Haliburton away from the ball, which Dort does so well, the Pacers have proven they will find a way to get it to him. So perhaps their best bet is to focus on steering him where they want instead.
So if that's their play, now the question is how Andrew Nembhard gets more involved as the primary initiator again. Haliburton took so much off of his plate in Game 3 because it was so easy for him to get downhill. If the Thunder are able to get Haliburton in motion and then take away his downhill turn, then that's going to mean Nembhard is running second side action plenty more in Game 4. Getty Images
By Shakeia Taylor and James Jackson
Could Friday the 13th spell out luck for this year's NBA champion? There have been only three NBA Finals matchups on Friday the 13th, but two of the last such winners (2003 Spurs, 1997 Bulls) were crowned champions.
Another reason tonight is crucial for the Thunder? Avoiding a 3-1 hole. Teams to take a 3-1 lead in the finals have taken the title 97.4 percent of the time. We all remember that one exception to the rule. Getty Images
With each thrilling win, and with each step they take closer to achieving the first NBA title in franchise history, the Indiana Pacers are slowly testing our ability to consume and analyze the game of basketball.
For so long, we've been conditioned to look at champions and great teams a certain way, with a certain formula and infrastructure. There has to be at least one superstar. There has to be a second star, capable of reaching All-NBA levels. There has to be a supporting cast around two or three players capable of making big plays and big shots at the same time. Even the 2011 Dallas Mavericks, for all of their talk about equal opportunity glory, featured Dirk Nowitzki, and his 2011 playoff performance qualified as one of the best individual runs in the history of the league.
Should the Pacers turn their current 2-1 NBA Finals lead over the Oklahoma City Thunder into a championship, they could be the most unique champion since the 2004 Detroit Pistons.
Read more on Indiana below.
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In the end, the box score only shows 10 points for T.J. McConnell, but he put together a huge performance in Game 3. The Pacers were +12 in his 15 minutes.
But he wasn't alone in making a big impact off the bench. Bennedict Mathurin scores 27 points in 22 minutes, and the Pacers outscored the Thunder by 16 points with him on the floor tonight.
Obi Toppin played 28 minutes off the bench and the Pacers were plus-18 in those minutes as well.
Massive performance from the Pacers bench. Getty Images
After winning Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead the Pacers aren't celebrating or looking ahead. Their goal is to remain focused from game to game.
'That's the challenge before us right now, is to maintain,' coach Rick Carlisle said. 'It's got to be a killer edge to beat these guys. We're going to be an underdog in every game in this series. It was 10 and a half in the first two games, five and a half last night, then tomorrow. It's a daunting challenge. Anything less than a total grit mindset, we just don't have a chance.'
And to Pascal Siakam, who's been in the Finals before, each game has the same level of significance.
'To me, they all feel the same in a way like how important it is and the intensity that you feel when you're on the court, no matter what the score is, whatever happens,' Siakam said. 'It's physical. It's tough, gritty. It's really, really hard. You feel every single possession out there when you're on the floor.' Getty Images
Tk K.: And this is why I knew that Game 1 loss would hurt more than just the single loss. Again, we're in a stressful position of having to win or face an uphill battle of coming back from down 3-1. Considering less than 20 teams have done that, it's not a position you want to put yourself in.
Anthony A.: Indiana is not 2025 Denver. OKC continues to brag about winning a zillion games by double digits, but you know what? It means they're not used to playing a full 48 minutes of pressurized basketball against an equally physical opponent. They don't have the stamina and it's showing in the 4th quarters as Indiana has outscored them by 27 points so far.\
Nathan P.: May have to wait a bit longer for the OKC 'dynasty' we were hearing was all but inevitable a couple weeks ago.
Greg S.: Now we get to see just how good (or not good) the Thunder coaching staff really is. Pressure is on. How does OKC adjust to a team that is beating them at their own game? Will be an intriguing Game 4. Getty Images
It is difficult to call someone like Chet Holmgren, who is so central to what the Oklahoma City Thunder do, an X-factor. But, for the rest of the series, this fits. When Holmgren plays well, as he will need to in tonight's Game 4, the Thunder usually win. When Holmgren struggles, as he did down the stretch of Game 3, the door is ajar for the Thunder to lose. He's their true litmus test. Because OKC generally knows what it will get from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, a good Holmgren game truly makes the Thunder difficult to beat. You saw both sides of that in Game 3. When Holmgren dominated the first quarter, OKC flirted with a double-digit lead. When Holmgren couldn't get it done on either end of the floor in the fourth quarter, the Indiana Pacers took the game over.
The Oklahoma City Thunder need good Chet in Game 4. It may be their easiest path to victory. Getty Images
When the Thunder announced a lineup change prior to Game 1, there were initial questions raised about the timing and reasoning, especially after the SGA/JDub/Dort/Chet/Hartenstein pairing had been so successful during the regular season and playoffs.
This isn't to say Cason Wallace is the reason why Oklahoma City has lost two of the three games he's been a starter. But major decisions like this have trickle-down effects — substitution patterns, matchup choices and overall rhythm and flow.
In Games 1 and 3, Daigneault's second-most used lineups outside his new starting group are a -31.3 and a -30.3, respectively. We're talking about a team that won 68 games during the regular season facing a fourth seed. That's simply not going to cut it at this stage, especially as Indiana has reveled in their depth and fluidity.
When you hear Daigneault speak about Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle, there's a certain level of reverence and respect — and understandably so. But at times, it almost feels like he's questioning his own abilities when juxtaposed next to his opponent.
Making further changes at this juncture, for example, putting swapping Wallace and Hartenstein, could be risky in itself. But if the Thunder have any hope of evening the series and potentially saving their season, they'll need to rediscover their identity — on their own terms. Getty Images
When the Oklahoma City Thunder left the court at Gainbridge Fieldhouse Wednesday night, as an arena erupted in celebratory glee behind them, they walked into a 2-1 deficit in the NBA Finals. What was supposed to be a coronation for the team that has dominated this season, with 68 wins and its Most Valuable Player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, may end up crowning the Indiana Pacers instead.
The Thunder now find themselves at an inflection point in this series, and in their arc. It is one that emerging perennial contenders have found themselves in before. It can be a bump on the way to glory or a sign it might be delayed.
Read more below.
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Thunder face moment of truth entering Game 4: 'You got to go in and play for your life'
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams combined for 50 points on 18-for-38 shooting in Game 3, but their 10 turnovers helped lead to Oklahoma City's loss.
One key adjustment might be a simple one: screen better. Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith and Indiana's other stoppers often made themselves unscreenable in Game 3. Their ability to stay attached to the Thunder guards disrupted Oklahoma City's normal offensive flow.
When the Pacers pick up full-court, as they usually do, the Thunder need to do a much better job of alleviating that pressure early. That's one reason why it could help them to play Isaiah Hartenstein more in Game 4. He's their best screener and could free up the guards to have cleaner performances. Maddie Meyer / Getty Images
I already mentioned the Thunder's struggles with 2-point shooting in today's story, but let me throw one other funky NBA Finals stat at you:
The Thunder have won all three first quarters, by a total of 23 points over the first three games ... and have lost all three fourth quarters, by a total of 27 points over the first three games.
That helps explain why the Pacers have a 2-1 series lead despite being only ahead for nanoseconds in the individual games.
It also shines a favorable light on another controversial decision: Changing the starting lineup before Game 1. The beginning of games hasn't been Oklahoma City's problem.; it's everything after that. In fact, the five-man unit now starting games — with Cason Wallace in Isaiah Hartenstein's place — has a whopping +27.6 Net Rating in the postseason. The former starting group's is just at +4.7.
How do the Oklahoma City Thunder surprisingly find themselves down 2-1 to the Indiana Pacers in the NBA Finals? I can give you two versions of the story, both of which are equally valid.
On one hand, there is the sheer fact of a more energetic Indiana side repeatedly outhustling, outscrapping, outrunning and ultimately outlasting Oklahoma City in Game 3. Call it 'energy' or 'playing with force' or whatever euphemism you want to use, but the tape doesn't lie. Rewatching the game on Thursday, the Thunder looked like a team on the last game of a four-games-in-five-nights trip. They played with little pace, were beaten to nearly every loose ball and completely ran out of gas at the end.
Of particular note was that the Thunder's best player was guilty on many of these fronts. Perhaps it's not surprising that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was worn out by the end after a 42-minute stint where he was repeatedly attacked on defense while the Pacers picked him up full court on offense. What's a bit more shocking is how out of sorts the MVP looked even at the beginning. Eight seconds into the game, he picked up a frustration foul shoving away Andrew Nembhard. Minutes later, he already seemed exhausted.
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Thunder struck with a midrange shooting slump at the wrong time in NBA Finals Getty Images
The Pacers are not the team to go super large against. They play too fast, run too much, to justify a couple of 7-footers sharing the floor. Clearly, the Thunder have noticed that — but it's surprised me how far they are taking the strategy.
Oklahoma City was hyper successful with Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren sharing the court up until the Finals. But Cason Wallace entered the starting lineup for Hartenstein to begin the series. In three games against the Pacers, the duo has played only 10 minutes together.
The irony, of course, is that the Knicks' most significant lineup adjustment during the Eastern Conference Finals, which they lost to Indiana in six games, was a change to their starting lineup that swapped a center, Mitchell Robinson, in for a wing, Josh Hart. The Knicks went double-big from Game 3 on, in part to add rim protection to a lineup that was lacking it. At times, they destroyed on the boards. In other moments, Robinson especially appeared exhausted, trekking back and forth against possibly the fastest team in the league.
The Thunder don't need the extra rim protection. Both Holmgren and Hartenstein can anchor a defense. But it's still a surprise how little those two have played together in this series. They didn't run alongside each other for a second of Game 1.
During the regular season, lineups with those two feasted on the offensive boards, where the Pacers struggle. They outscored opponents by 13.5 points per 100 possessions.
Even if it means Hartenstein defending Siakam, which could make the Thunder more prone to fast-break buckets, I wonder if we see more of the Thunder's double-big lineups — if only because it's led to so much success before. Getty Images
Here were the final Shai Gilgeous-Alexander fourth quarter numbers on Wednesday night: three points, 1-3 shooting, one assist and one turnover.
It wasn't a spectacularly bad 10 minutes from him. It was just quiet, relatively unaggressive and the Thunder lost that subsection of the game by 11 points, losing control of the series in the process.
The question posed to him during Thursday's media session: Was he worn down?
"I'm not too sure," he said. "I don't think so. It's a physical game. We've had plenty of physical games. We've had games like that where I've been great late, games where I've stunk late. I don't think it was anything out the blue, anything I hadn't seen before."
One of the emerging theories within this series has been about Indiana's breakneck pace and ability to fatigue its opponents. The Thunder blew a large fourth quarter lead in Game 1 and faded down the stretch of Game 3, losing the fourth quarter 32-18.
Nobody within the Thunder admitted to a level of fatigue, but it's clear they felt an extra level of physicality and sustained aggression from the Pacers once the series shifted to Indianapolis, including the Pacers' pick-up point on Gilgeous-Alexander.
"They were higher in the pick-and-rolls," Gilgeous-Alexander said. "They were above the screen. When you come off it, you got to go backwards. It goes back to (the) little bit more force (they had). If we're more aggressive in the pick-and-roll and setting it up, then we get a better angle. Things like that usually comes down to who throws the first punch. I think that's what that was."
Jerry West has four Game 4 Finals games where he scored 35 or more points: 45 in 1966, 38 in '68, 40 in '69 and 37 in '70. Steph Curry is third with three games of 35-plus points (38, 37, 43) and Shaquille O'Neal had two, scoring 36 each time. Michael Jordan has the most points in a Game 4, 55, against the Suns in 1993. Kobe Bryant never surpassed the 35-point mark in a Game 4 in his career. Though, he did have one very special Game 4, as told by David Aldridge and Marcus Thompson.
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Kobe Bryant's coming-out party in Indiana dashed the Pacers' title hopes 25 years ago Getty Images
A key role in Oklahoma City's late-game woes? Experience. This postseason, the Thunder already have half as many clutch-time losses (four) as they did during the regular season, during which they ranked last in clutch-time minutes (66). If the Thunder win the title, they'd become only the fourth team since 1997 to rank last in clutch-time minutes en route to a championship (2014 Spurs, 2015 Warriors, 2017 Warriors).