It will be all smiles at the swearing in, but there's blood on the floor
This is a sideways appointment for Plibersek and places her in a large portfolio that matters to millions of Australians. It undoes the problem of installing her in environment three years ago, but it is too late to reverse the great loss of not making her minister for women – a mission she was passionate about.
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Murray Watt is a wise choice as minister for environment and water because he will be able to negotiate with the Greens on potential reform from a position of strength. Unlike Plibersek, he will have the emphatic election victory behind him when he negotiates. As a Queenslander and a senator, he has helped orchestrate the Labor victories over the Greens in his home state.
Anne Aly is a good appointment in multicultural affairs – the first Muslim woman in cabinet – and Tim Ayres is a smart appointment in the industry portfolio. Jess Walsh, from the Victorian Left, will bring an economic focus to the early childhood portfolio.
Anika Wells achieved big reforms to aged care and will have to bring that skill to communications and sport, a portfolio with intense lobbying from the media and the big sporting bodies.
Watch for the rise of Daniel Mulino, from the Victorian Right, a sharp economist and a good choice for assistant treasurer. A rising member of the NSW Right, Andrew Charlton, is only an assistant minister but has a pivotal position as cabinet secretary, bringing him in on major decisions.
Nobody is under any illusion about the rise of Sam Rae, the factional operator from the Victorian Right, who becomes minister for aged care despite having very little experience. But he reports to the cabinet minister in his portfolio, Mark Butler, one of the prime minister's most trusted allies. Albanese is keeping Rae in a job where he can be watched closely.
The ministers who do not move from key posts – Chris Bowen in climate, Jason Clare in education, Catherine King in infrastructure, Madeleine King in resources, Clare O'Neil in housing – are all in areas where Labor got the better of the Coalition at the election.
Most importantly, Albanese has broadened the responsibilities for a handful of cabinet ministers who will rise in power in this term. This is all about solid management – and learning from the rough ride of the first term.
Butler adds the National Disability Insurance Scheme to his portfolios of health and aged care at cabinet level. He becomes an increasingly important cabinet minister given that health was key to the election victory. He will negotiate with the states on the NDIS, just as he does on hospitals. The Minister for the NDIS, Jenny McAllister, was a strong minister for emergency management; the response to Cyclone Alfred was part of Labor's political recovery this year.
Another minister also increases his sway. Tony Burke moved from workplace relations to home affairs when Labor was reeling from the High Court decision on indefinite detention. He brought that mess under control and now gains greater power with responsibility for ASIO and the Australian Federal Police. Labor has learned that it needs to be vigilant on domestic security and immigration.
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The core leadership team remains solid: Richard Marles as deputy prime minister and defence minister, Penny Wong in foreign affairs, Jim Chalmers in treasury, Katy Gallagher in finance and Don Farrell in trade.
Governments tend to centralise as they grow older, so there will be friction about this inner sanctum. Marles has made enemies, especially in the NSW Right, from the removal of Dreyfus and Husic. This means the dynamics of the cabinet will change. It will be chillier rather than cheerier.
There will be smiles for the cameras when the ministers are sworn into office at Government House on Tuesday, but everyone will remember the blood on the floor of the caucus room. This new ministry has been an unsentimental exercise in factional power. At the top, this Labor cabinet is all about a handful of power players and the patronage they wield in their factions and their states. More so than in the last term, they will be a team of rivals. The mystery is how often they will cooperate and how often they will compete.
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