Why the West is bracing for war in the Middle East
The signs could hardly be more ominous.
The United States is withdrawing non-essential diplomats and the families of American servicemen from across the Middle East. Britain has warned commercial vessels in and around the Gulf to exercise caution.
It seems clear that Western officials are bracing for a potentially imminent Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities – and the retaliation Tehran would unleash in response.
The sudden movement of personnel is being interpreted as a signal that Donald Trump has privately told Benjamin Netanyahu he will not stand in the way should the Israeli prime minister decide to act.
Such a message would mark a significant shift from the US president's position just a few weeks ago, when he reportedly stayed the Israeli prime minister's hand.
That does not mean military action is inevitable. Frustrated by the slow pace of nuclear talks, Mr Trump – a dove at heart – may simply be trying to rattle Tehran.
He was deeply riled last month after being branded 'Taco' – an acronym that stands for 'Trump Always Chickens Out'.
Keenly aware that his adversaries may now view his threats as bluster, and assume the safest course is to wait him out, the US president may be trying to persuade the mullahs in Tehran that playing chicken with him is a dangerous miscalculation.
Likewise, even if Washington has given Mr Netanyahu the green light, the Israeli prime minister has backed down at the last minute in the past on the advice of his generals.
Ideally, any serious assault on Iran's nuclear programme would include a commando component to cripple its deeply-buried enrichment facilities. But earlier this year, Israel's generals reportedly told the prime minister that planning for a commando operation would not be completed until the autumn.
Mr Netanyahu may decide to press on regardless. There are certainly increasingly convincing reasons to believe that, after 16 years of threatening military action, Israel may now be preparing to follow that through.
Much has changed since April, when Mr Trump is said to have talked him down, arguing that negotiations remained a better path to prevent Iran from building a bomb.
Israel is believed to have a strike plan in place, with or without commandos, and Mr Netanyahu was ready to implement it last month.
Yet without US backing, he had to back down. No Israeli attack is feasible without American operational support and a commitment to help defend Israel from Iranian retaliation.
That calculus appears to be shifting. This week, Mr Trump acknowledged for the first time that diplomacy may be failing, and that he is no longer sure Tehran can be persuaded to halt nuclear enrichment.
That impression was reinforced on Thursday when the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, formally found Iran in breach of its nuclear obligations for the first time in two decades.
Tehran responded defiantly, announcing plans for a new enrichment facility. In Israel's eyes, that declaration may well amount to a casus belli.
The stakes are high. Less hawkish voices in the Trump administration doubt that Israeli strikes could destroy Iran's nuclear capability and warn that strikes could prompt Tehran to race to build a bomb while triggering a wider regional war.
Aware of these risks, Israel may instead opt for a more limited assault aimed not at eliminating Iran's nuclear programme but at delaying it by a year.
Such an operation, Israeli officials believe, is more likely to succeed now than in the past.
Iran's proxy forces – Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and, to a lesser extent, the Houthis in Yemen – have been weakened by Israeli strikes, diminishing Tehran's capacity for retaliation. Iran's principal deterrent has been blunted.
Moreover, Iran's nuclear facilities are more exposed after Israeli retaliatory strikes last year that destroyed much of its air defence capacity.
Still, the regime's most important nuclear facilities remain deeply buried. In the absence of commandos, the only realistic way to destroy them would be with US B-2 bombers carrying 30,000lb bunker-busting bombs flying in support of an Israeli-led mission. It is unclear whether Mr Trump would have the appetite for such a mission.
Even a limited Israeli strike, however, risks triggering a wider regional conflagration. Iran is expected to retaliate with missile strikes on Israel – although, given the strength of Israeli air defences, the effectiveness of such an attack would be uncertain. Two Iranian missile assaults last year caused only limited damage.
Iranian strikes on US interests in the region or on energy infrastructure in the Gulf would be far more dangerous – steps that could draw Saudi Arabia and its allies into the conflict. Oil prices would soar, exacerbating strains on a global economy reeling from Mr Trump's trade wars.
There is still a chance to avert the worst. US and Iranian negotiators are due to meet in Oman on Sunday. What would once have been a routine round of talks has taken on far greater significance.
If they go ahead at all, they may now mark a moment of reckoning, with the Americans delivering a final ultimatum – get serious, or face the consequences.
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