First election test for Trump's term surprisingly close in FL, GOP looks to increase razor-thin House majority
Voters in two congressional districts in Florida head to the polls on Tuesday, as Republicans aim to keep control of both solidly red seats and give themselves slightly more breathing room in the House, where they hold a razor-thin majority.
However, the Democratic Party candidates in the two special elections have vastly outraised the Republican nominees - thanks to an energized base eager to resist President Donald Trump and his sweeping and controversial agenda.
The races, in Florida's 1st and 6th Congressional Districts, which Trump carried by 37 and 30 points in last year's presidential election, are being viewed as early referendums on the opening couple of months of Trump's second tour of duty in the White House.
While the GOP was expected to sweep both races, some public and private polling suggests the 6th District showdown is now a margin-of-error race.
Additionally, Trump, pointing to the Democratic candidates' massive fundraising advantage, voiced growing concerns by Republicans as he told reporters on Friday that "you never know what happens in a case like that."
Jimmy Patronis, the Florida chief financial officer, is favored over Democrat Gay Valimont in a multi-candidate field in the race to fill the vacant seat in the 1st CD, which is located in the far northwestern corner of Florida in the Panhandle region.
However, Valimont topped Patronis in fundraising by roughly a five-to-one margin.
Republican Matt Gaetz, who won re-election in the district in last November's elections, resigned from office weeks later after Trump selected him to be his nominee for attorney general in his second administration. Gaetz later withdrew himself from Cabinet consideration amid controversy.
However, it is the race in the 6th CD, which is located on Florida's Atlantic coast from Daytona Beach to just south of Saint Augustine and inland to the outskirts of Ocala, that is really raising concerns among some in the GOP.
The race is to succeed Republican Michael Waltz, who stepped down from the seat on Jan. 20 after Trump named him his national security adviser.
Republican state Sen. Randy Fine is facing off against teacher Josh Weil, a Democrat, in a multi-candidate field.
Weil grabbed plenty of national attention in recent weeks by topping Fine in the campaign cash battle by roughly a 10-to-1 margin.
The cash discrepancy in the 6th CD race spurred GOP-aligned outside groups to make last-minute contributions in support of Fine, with conservative super PACs dishing out big bucks to launch ads spotlighting Trump's support of Fine and to take aim at Weil.
"Liberal Josh Weil wants to roadblock the Trump agenda," the announcer in a spot from the Conservative Fighter PAC charges.
America PAC - which is bankrolled by billionaire Elon Musk, Trump's top donor last year - made infusions as well during the closing days ahead of the election.
"I would have preferred if our candidate had raised money at a faster rate and gotten on TV quicker," Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina, the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), told reporters last week. However, Hudson added that Fine is "doing what he needs to do. He's on TV now," and he emphasized, "We're going to win the seat. I'm not concerned at all."
Neither the NRCC nor the Congressional Leadership Fund, the top super PAC backing House Republicans, put any resources into the race.
However, Trump headlined tele-town halls for both Fine and Patronis late last week, and he also took to social media on Saturday to praise both candidates, in efforts to turn out Republican voters.
"Randy has been a tremendous Voice for MAGA," Trump wrote about Fine. "In Congress, Randy will be an incredible fighter."
While Trump was optimistic about sweeping both Florida elections - saying "they seem to be good" - concerns about holding the seat in Florida's 6th CD may have contributed to the president's pulling last week of his nomination for GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik to serve as United Nations ambassador.
Stefanik represents New York's 21st Congressional District, a large, mostly rural district in the northernmost reaches of the state that includes most of the Adirondack Mountains and the Thousand Islands region. She cruised to re-election last November by 24 points.
"We don't want to take any chances. We don't want to experiment," Trump said as he pointed to what would have been a special election later this year to fill Stefanik's seat if she had resigned if confirmed as U.N. ambassador.
"She's very popular. She's going to win. And somebody else will probably win, too, because we did very well there. I did very well there. But the word 'probably' is no good," the president added as he once again emphasized he did not "want to take any chances."
Trump was not the only Republican expressing some concerns about the race in Florida's 6th District.
Former top Trump political adviser and conservative host Steve Bannon warned last week that Fine "isn't winning." Additionally, two-term Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis told reporters last week that the GOP would underperform in the special election, arguing that "it's a reflection of the candidate running in that race."
However, it is worth pointing out the contentious history between DeSantis and Fine, who was the first Florida Republican to flip his endorsement from DeSantis to Trump during the 2024 Republican presidential nomination battle.
On the eve of the election, a Florida Republican official told Fox News the party is not panicked about the race, but rather "concerned." However, the official, who asked to remain anonymous to speak more freely, said a win is still likely by about 7-10 points.
The GOP currently holds a 218-213 majority in the House - with the two vacant seats in Florida and two where Democratic lawmakers died in March.
Republican Rep. Byron Donalds, in a Fox News Digital interview on Friday as he kicked off his 2026 campaign for Florida governor, predicted "it would be difficult" for the GOP House majority if the party lost one of Tuesday's elections.
However, he added, "I'm not looking forward to that. I think we're going to win both those seats on Tuesday. I think Republican voters in those districts are going to turn out because, at the end of the day, the choice is clear."
House Majority Whip Rep. Tom Emmer told Fox News Digital that "Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine are exactly who House Republicans need to join our team."
Emmer, the number three Republican in the House, emphasized that "their votes and leadership will be key as we work to advance President Trump's agenda in Congress and Make America Great Again."
While the races in the two Republican-dominated districts are far from ideal for the Democrats to try and flip, the elections are the first opportunity for voters and donors to try and make a difference in federal contests since Trump's return to power in the White House.
Democrats say the surge in fundraising for their candidates is a sign their party is motivated amid voters' frustrations with the sweeping and controversial moves made by Trump in his opening weeks back in office.
They also point to last week's state senate election in battleground Pennsylvania, where the Democrats flipped a seat from red to blue that Trump easily carried in November's presidential election.
"The American people are not buying what the Republicans are selling," House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries told reporters.
Jeffries and other Democrats are not predicting victory, and the House Democrats' campaign arm - the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee - has not invested resources in either race.
However, Jeffries, the top Democrat in the House, highlighted that "these districts are so Republican there would ordinarily be no reason to believe that the races will be close, but what I can say almost guaranteed is that the Democratic candidate in both of these Florida special elections will significantly overperform."
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