Arab officials say there is a strong likelihood US will 'directly' join Israel in attacking Iran

Middle East Eye

5 hours ago

Three informed Arab officials have told Middle East Eye that there is an increasing likelihood that the United States will "directly" join Israel in attacking Iran, as its widescale bombing campaign enters a fourth day.
The three officials, who spoke to MEE on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the topic, said they were in touch with the White House, and in some cases, mediating between the US and the Islamic Republic to bring about an end to hostilities.
The officials did not point to any specific intelligence that said Washington would soon enter the fray, but said US President Donald Trump appeared to be moving closer to "backing up" Israel.
"Trump is closer every hour to bringing the US in more directly. Not just in terms of supply," one of the Arab officials told MEE.
Since Israel began attacking Iran early on Friday, Trump has issued several, albeit inconsistent, messages regarding the role that Washington has and could play.
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Early on Saturday, Trump said he held an hour-long phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin where they discussed the conflict and how it should come to an end.
However, in a later interview with the Atlantic, Trump appeared to push back against his "America first" supporters who have long argued the Washington shouldn't be funding Israel's wars.
"For those people who say they want peace - you can't have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon," he said, suggesting stopping Iran's nuclear programme was a prerequisite for peace.
"So for all of those wonderful people who don't want to do anything about Iran having a nuclear weapon - that's not peace."
Meanwhile, in an interview with ABS News on Sunday, Trump said it was possible that the US "could get involved" in the hostilities, before adding that Washington was not directly involved "at this moment".
Gulf will be drawn into the conflict
An Emirati analyst in the UAE, who has close ties to his government's decision-making processess, said Gulf rulers "may not support US intervention [in terms of] allowing airspace access or the use of bases, but they can't prevent it."
So far, Israeli jets are believed to have used Syrian and Iraqi airspace when targeting sites across the Islamic Republic. On Friday, Iraq's Foreign Ministry filed a complaint with the UN Security Council over Israeli aircraft violating the country's airspace to launch attacks.
'The Israelis are pushing hard, but Trump is under counter-vailing pressure from the Maga movement to stay out'
- Julien Barnes-Dacey, European Council on Foreign Relations
Iran has repeatedly said that if it is directly attacked by the US it will target American bases in the Gulf. So far, it has refrained from bombing American assets in the region, nor has it targeted any Gulf energy installations.
"If the US enters [the conflict] that means the Gulf is in the conflict," Bader Al-Saif, a professor at Kuwait University, told MEE.
"It will be hard to dissociate the Gulf states no matter how hard we are trying.
"Now that this scenario appears to be arriving, our best bet is to insulate ourselves as much as possible… that means insulating the US bases potentially," he added.
Regional officials say it's possible that Gulf states were not on the same page and that they would likely respond differently depending on how they view the durability of the Iranian government.
The UAE, which enjoys the closest ties to Israel and has been more assertive against Iran, could back intervention, one of the Arab officials told MEE.
Blistering attacks
Since Israel launched its blistering attacks on the heart of Iran's nuclear and military structure, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has held calls with Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Israeli media have alleged that Tehran has also reached out to Oman, which was hosting its nuclear talks with the US, to try to stop the fighting.
It remains unclear whether Trump is fully onboard with the Israeli attacks, but a senior US official told MEE earlier this month that Israel presented the White House with attack plans between April and May.
Since then, Washington has continued to push through a steady supply of armaments to Israel and helped modify Israel's F-35 warplanes to attack Iran without refuelling.
The secret modifications have helped Gulf states that were concerned they could be targeted if Israel used their skies or bases for refuelling.
Israel and US modified F-35s to enable Iran attack without refuelling, sources say Read More »
Whilst Iran has largely responded to Israel's attacks with light drones and ballistic missiles, the Associated Press and Wall Street Journal have reported that the US has played an outsized role, with American air defence systems and a Navy destroyer helping Israel shoot down incoming threats.
Israel says its strikes are aimed at preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, and so far it has killed several nuclear scientists and damaged the Natanz nuclear plant.
The most challenging target for Israel is Fordow nuclear plant. It is the most tightly guarded of all Iran's nuclear facilities and is believed to be based half a kilometre beneath a mountain near the city of Qom.
Iran's semi-official ISNA news agency said on Saturday that Fordow had been attacked, but the damage was limited.
Experts say in order to destroy Fordow through conventional strikes, Israel would need access to US 30,000lb GBU-57 bunker buster bombs and B-2 bombers to carry them.
"The entire operation... really has to be completed with the elimination of Fordow," Israeli Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter told Fox News on Friday.
Julien Barnes-Dacey, the director of the Middle East programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told MEE that "the Israelis are pushing hard, but Trump is under counter-vailing pressure from the Maga movement to stay out."
'There is a reality hanging over the situation that American engagement would make a decisive difference in terms of taking out the nuclear facilities [at Fordow]," he said.