Sudden swing riding

Winnipeg Free Press

24-04-2025

In a snap election, with a handful of weeks for candidates to convince constituents, the tides can turn quickly, and what was once a safe riding can suddenly find itself back in play.
A month ago, Kildonan-St. Paul may have seemed a safe bet for Conservative blue — incumbent Raquel Dancho, a career politician with name and face recognition after two terms in the riding, against accountant and political rookie Liberal Thomas Naaykens. Today, data suggests the riding may be a tossup.
Probe Research partner Mary Agnes Welch described Kildonan-St. Paul as a possible 'sleeper' riding in a survey released earlier this week — that despite its history of voting in largely Conservative candidates.
Alex Lambert / Free Press
Kildonan-St. Paul Liberal candidate Thomas Naaykens (left) hands a campaign leaflet to voters Al Dennis (middle) and Wayne Dennis in the River East neighbourhood Wednesday.
Dancho, who is running for a third time, isn't fazed. The 35 year old said her constituents are worried about issues deeper than the polls — most prominently, the rising cost of living — and want an experienced representative.
'My experience has served the community very well, and certainly, during this unsettling time, I get the feedback that people are looking for an experienced voice in Ottawa,' she told the Free Press.
The Liberals clearly believe they have a chance. Less than a week before election day, Naaykens was joined on the campaign trail by federal Justice Minister Gary Anandasangaree.
'I believe that this riding is ready for change,' Anandasangaree said after giving a speech and taking photos with volunteers at Naaykens' campaign office on McLeod Avenue.
Naaykens said the issue he's heard about most while door knocking is concern over which party leader is best suited to handle any coming threats from U.S. President Donald Trump amid the trade war coming from south of the border.
He concedes he may not have Dancho's political experience — he worked as a financial analyst in the agriculture sector and was an officer in the Canadian Armed Forces before getting into politics — but suggested it could be a benefit in a riding looking for answers to those worries.
'(Dancho) doesn't have that real-world experience, she never really had the private sector jobs where you gain that … she's had the opportunity to run in a couple campaigns where, for me, this is fresh,' Naaykens 36, said.
'But we do have a strong team that has kind of already been in place because they're very, very dedicated Liberals.'
The riding was formed in 2004 from pieces of three surrounding areas, and was represented by Conservative Joy Smith from its inception until 2015. She was largely a single-issue MP, spending much of her time in Parliament fighting against sex trafficking.
Liberal MaryAnn Mihychuk represented the area for one term during former prime minister Justin Trudeau's red wave in 2015, serving as the minister of employment, workforce development and labour for two years. Dancho has been the MP since 2019.
The riding has gained constituents since the last federal election: a chunk of the Rural Municipality of Springfield, including Oakbank, is now part of Kildonan-St. Paul. The Conservative-leaning additions to the riding could enforce its status as a 'bedroom community' or a residential suburb without much by way of commercial or industrial spaces, said Kelly Saunders, an associate professor in political science at Brandon University.
'It is a suburban type of bedroom community riding. It has an urban, suburban feel, which is the type of area where Liberals have strength, but it has rural as well, which is why Tories have won there,' she said.
'It all depends on if the NDP vote continues to collapse. If the NDP had about 25 per cent like last time, it would be different, but if the NDP vote goes to the Liberals, it will really be in play.'
NDP candidate Emily Clark ran for the first time in 2021 and received 23.5 per cent of the vote, six per cent less, or about 2,600 votes fewer than the second-place Liberal candidate at the time, Mary-Jane Bennett. Dancho took more than 40 per cent of votes cast in 2019 and 2021.
Clark, an account management director for a medical education technology company, said progressive voters are worried about splitting the vote and opening the door for the Conservatives.
She called it a 'frustrating' aspect of meeting voters at the doors, especially considering the Liberal party promised to abolish Canada's first-past-the post voting system in 2015. That promise was broken.
Adrian Wyld / The Canadian Press files
Conservative Raquel Dancho has been Kildonan-St. Paul MP since 2019.
'I'm hearing that a lot and, in fact, even sometimes in a sort of an apologetic kind of way, (voters are saying) 'I want to vote for you, I'm so worried about splitting the vote, but please put a sign on my lawn, I'll make a donation, but I might not be able to vote for you this time around,'' Clark, 37, said.
'It's difficult, and it's certainly frustrating.'
Like Dancho, Clark said affordability concerns were what she was hearing most in the riding.
Residents in the Seven Oaks neighbourhood told the Free Press they feel the same way. Mary Singh said she was undecided voter, but was leaning toward voting Conservative, in part because her concerns about the number of immigrants coming to Canada and the possible impact on the cost of living.
'I feel like (Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is) able to do a lot better than (Justin) Trudeau (did), according to what his plan is,' Singh, a 32-year-old donor technician, said. 'The housing crisis is higher now, compared to before, and it's also because a lot of people near me have a lot of demands on the housing and food and groceries.'
Another undecided voter, 41-year-old software developer Matthew Klassen, said he will vote for either the Liberals or the NDP. He said the fact that he still hadn't seen the Conservative plan on Wednesday as well as the way Poilievre carries himself have made it impossible for him to vote Conservative.
'I don't like Pierre (Poilievre's) stance on a lot of things,' said Klassen. 'The way he's been talking, it's a lot of Trump-isms.'
He said he's leaning more toward voting for the Liberals instead of the NDP, to avoid vote-splitting.
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Some had already gotten out and voted in advanced polls.
Diane Cameron, a retired teacher in her 70s, said she voted for the Liberals because she, too, believes Poilievre is too closely aligned to Trump.
'Poilievre is a Trump ass-kisser,' she said.
— with files from Kevin Rollason
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Malak AbasReporter
Malak Abas is a city reporter at the Free Press. Born and raised in Winnipeg's North End, she led the campus paper at the University of Manitoba before joining the Free Press in 2020. Read more about Malak.
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