Melbourne property market divided: Suburbs where sellers win big and buyers bargain hard

News.com.au

16-05-2025

Melbourne homesellers in dozens of suburbs are headed to a winter bonanza as their local area delivers unexpectedly strong sales — but others won't be so lucky.
New analysis from SuburbData has revealed the city's best and worst performing suburbs to sell a home, highlighting the gap between asking prices and final sale figures.
Fraser Rise in Melbourne's outer west delivered the strongest result in the city, and one of the nation's 10 best, with vendors typically selling homes for 18.3 per cent more than they had expected.
At the other end of the list, sellers in Mont Albert, Point Cook, Collingwood, Lilydale and Altona faced some of the biggest reductions – making them among the best places for buyers to target as the weather cools.
In those areas, price cuts pushed close to 19 per cent as weaker demand and oversupply limited buyer urgency.
Other areas where markdowns were more common included parts of the southeast and inner suburbs with older housing listings or higher proportions of investor-owned properties.
Despite the mixed results, agents said overall sentiment had shifted in favour of sellers in many family-oriented growth corridors.
Ray White Taylors Lakes agent Ratip Cileli said Fraser Rise had become one of the city's most active markets in recent months, driven by strong buyer demand and improving local infrastructure.
'There's still a lot of development to come, and that's only going to keep pushing values upward,' Mr Cileli said.
'It's moving in a really positive direction.'
A recent listing for a four-bedroom home in the area attracted more than 30 groups.
'We had buyers trying to negotiate early, but we stuck with the auction because the interest was there,' he said.
'With buyers competing and vendors confident, it's one of the strongest markets we've seen in years.'
Fraser Rise has also drawn increased interest from first-home buyers and upgraders priced out of neighbouring Caroline Springs and Taylors Hill.
Mr Cileli said many of the homes were new builds or recently constructed, reducing the need for renovations and adding to their appeal.
'You can get something modern here without needing to renovate,' he said.
'It's great value for money and buyers are realising that quickly.'
SuburbData analyst Jeremy Sheppard said low markdown levels often signalled a seller's market, where buyers drove up prices and listings were tightly held.
'There is a correlation between higher discounts and softer demand,' Mr Sheppard said.
'Whatever situation the market is in, whether it's oversupply or some other factor, higher discounts reflect that buyers are in control and sellers have to take what is given to them.'
Mr Sheppard said suburbs with tight competition and minimal price reductions were often markets where sellers had the upper hand, and values could rise quickly as a result.
'Properties selling for well above the advertised prices indicates the buyers are often desperate. As a seller, you will hear from new buyers in hours,' he said.
'Agents don't give buyers the time of day in these markets because demand exceeds supply and they know there are plenty of buyers competing on every listing.'
The SuburbData analyst added that while buyer-leaning suburbs might seem appealing for affordability, they lacked the same potential for quick equity growth.
'Buyer's markets are ironically not so good to buy into if you want the value of the property to go up quickly,' Mr Sheppard said.
'It's one of those counterintuitive concepts. We call it a buyer's market because it's easy to buy into, but the best markets for capital growth are very hard to get into.'
'There's a big difference between buying cheap and buying smart,'
'The suburbs with the tightest competition are the ones that tend to grow the fastest.'
Melbourne buyers' advocate Simon Murphy said many of his clients were targeting suburbs like Fraser Rise, Derrimut, Deer Park and Glenroy, where prices were still accessible and capital growth looked promising.
'With the southeast getting more expensive, people are heading west where they can still get something decent 30 minutes from the CBD,' Mr Murphy said.
'Anywhere between $700,000 and $900,000 is still considered affordable, and buyers are definitely active in that bracket.'
Mr Murphy said recent listings were fuelled by first-home buyer schemes and increased market confidence.
'A lot of buyers don't realise they qualify, but if you're under $600,000 and your servicing is strong, you can get in with around $30,000 saved,' he said.
The Melbourne said he had saved clients more than $30,000 each across recent purchases, but warned the opportunity to negotiate would narrow.
'If you're in a position to buy, don't wait, the $600,000 affordable house is going to be a thing of the past very soon – just like we now laugh about $400,000 homes from 2016.'
MELBOURNE SUBURBS BEST TO BUY
Suburb Property type Discount %
MONT ALBERT Units 18.8
POINT COOK Houses 17.7
COLLINGWOOD Units 15.3
LILYDALE Units 14.8
ALTONA Units 13.8
CLAYTON Units 13.7
MORNINGTON Houses 12.4
NEWPORT Houses 12.3
DONCASTER Houses 11.8
PRESTON Houses 11.4
Note: Data excluded homes that went to auction.
MELBOURNE SUBURBS BEST TO SELL
Suburb Property type Discount %
FRASER RISE Houses -18.3
IVANHOE Houses -8.5
BROOKLYN Houses -8.5
FRANKSTON SOUTH Houses -5
FAWKNER Houses -4.9
FITZROY Units -4.2
TOOTGAROOK Houses -3.9
OFFICER Houses -3.8
CROYDON Units -2.1
TEMPLESTOWE LOWER Houses -1.8
Note: Data excluded homes that went to auction.