Threat of Russia looms over Poland's presidential election
Security concerns dominate Poland's presidential election amidst war in Ukraine and regional instability. With the US's commitment to European security in question, the next Polish president faces the crucial task of maintaining strong transatlantic ties.
Poles head to the polls Sunday to choose a successor to Andrzej Duda, whose second term concludes in August.
The crowded field of 13 candidates makes a first-round victory unlikely. Some contenders hold extreme views, including pro-Putin and antisemitic sentiments, highlighting concerns about the strength of Polish democracy. A recent four-hour televised debate dragged on for nearly 4 hours.
This means a 1 June runoff is the most likely scenario, with polls suggesting a contest between Warsaw's liberal mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, and conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, backed by the Law and Justice party.
The election's outcome will significantly impact Poland's future, particularly its relationship with the US, considered vital for the nation's security in a turbulent region.
Poland's geography gives the election added importance. Bordering Russia's Kaliningrad exclave, Belarus and war-torn Ukraine — as well as several Western allies — Poland occupies a critical position along NATO's eastern flank and serves as a key logistics hub for military aid to Ukraine.
Fears are rising that if Russia prevails in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it could target other countries that freed themselves from Moscow's control some 35 years ago. Against that backdrop, the election will shape Warsaw's foreign policy at a moment of mounting strain on trans-Atlantic unity and European defense.
Both leading candidates support continued U.S. military engagement in Europe. Trzaskowski puts greater emphasis on deepening ties with the European Union, while Nawrocki is more skeptical of Brussels and promotes a nationalist agenda.
When Law and Justice held power, it repeatedly clashed with EU institutions over judicial independence, media freedom and migration.
While Poland is a parliamentary democracy, the presidency wields significant influence. The president serves as commander-in-chief, holds veto power, shapes foreign policy and plays a symbolic role in national discourse.
Under Duda, the office largely advanced the conservative agenda of Law and Justice. Since Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centrist coalition came to power in late 2023, Duda has blocked key reforms aimed at restoring judicial independence and repairing relations with the EU.
"The stakes are enormous for the ruling coalition and for those concerned with the future of Polish democracy," said Jacek Kucharczyk, president of the Institute of Public Affairs, a Warsaw think tank. "This is about democratic reform and restoring the rule of law — and that can only happen with cooperation from the next president."
The election is also pivotal for Law and Justice, Kucharczyk noted: "Its future as a dominant political force may hinge on the outcome."
Both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki have pledged to support Ukraine and maintain strong defense ties, but their visions for Poland diverge sharply on the role of the EU and domestic social policy.
Trzaskowski, 52, is a former presidential contender and a senior figure in Civic Platform, the centrist party led by Tusk. He is running on a pro-European platform and has pledged to defend judicial independence and rebuild democratic institutions.
Supporters describe him as a modernizer who represents a cosmopolitan, outward-facing Poland. He speaks foreign languages, has marched in LGBTQ+ parades and appeals to younger, urban voters. Trzaskowski's progressive views highlight an evolution of the once more conservative Civic Platform.
Nawrocki, 42, represents how the party backing him, Law and Justice, is turning further to the right as support for the hard right surges.
Nawrocki, who is not a Law and Justice party member, heads the state-backed Institute of National Remembrance, which investigates Nazi and communist-era crimes. He has drawn praise from conservatives for dismantling Soviet monuments and promoting patriotic education, but he faces criticism for inexperience and playing on anti-German and other resentments. He has also been embroiled in some scandals.
Earlier this month, Nawrocki met with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House — a symbolic moment welcomed by Law and Justice-friendly media as proof that he would be the best man for keeping the relationship with the United States strong. Critics viewed it as interference by Trump's administration.
This week Nawrocki was joined on the campaign trail by Romanian nationalist George Simion, who faces a runoff vote for the presidency on Sunday. Simion is viewed by critics as pro-Russian, leading Tusk to tweet: "Russia is pleased. Nawrocki and his pro-Russian Romanian counterpart George Simion on the same stage five days before the presidential elections in Poland and Romania. Everything is clear."
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The Hill
an hour ago
- The Hill
Poland holds a pivotal presidential runoff influenced by Trump, the far right and the war in Ukraine
WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Poland is set to hold a presidential runoff election on Sunday between two candidates offering starkly different visions for the country's future. The winner will succeed President Andrzej Duda, a conservative who is finishing his second and final term. The outcome will determine whether Poland embraces a nationalist populist trajectory or pivots more fully toward liberal, pro-European policies. An exit poll by Ipsos will be released when polls close on Sunday at 9 p.m. local time, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Final results are expected Monday. Whoever wins can be expected to either help or hinder the agenda of the centrist government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk thanks to the presidential power to veto laws. The vote comes amid heightened regional tensions driven by Russia's war in neighboring Ukraine, security concerns across Europe and internal debates about the rule of law. It follows a first round on May 18, in which Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski won more than 31% of the vote and Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian, earned nearly 30%. Eleven other candidates were eliminated. Opinion polls show the two men running neck and neck. Other factors add to the unpredictability. Nawrocki did much better in the first round than surveys had predicted, indicating that his strength was underestimated. On the other hand, large numbers of Poles abroad have registered to vote in the second round, which could help Trzaskowski. Nawrocki is a 42-year-old historian who was tapped as by the national conservative Law and Justice party despite a lack of political experience or party membership. But this is seen as acting in his favor, as the party, which governed for 2015-2023, seeks to refresh its image before a parliamentary election in 2027. Nawrocki's supporters describe him as the embodiment of traditional, patriotic Polish values. They believe U.S. President Donald Trump's support for him will strengthen Poland's ties with the United States and make the country safer. Trzaskowski, 53, is Warsaw's mayor and a close ally of Tusk. A deputy leader of Civic Platform, a pro-European Union party, he has been prominent in national politics for years. This is his second presidential bid after narrowly losing to Duda in 2020. Supporters credit him with modernizing Warsaw through infrastructure, public transit expansion and cultural investments. He is widely seen as pragmatic and focused on strengthening ties with other European nations. Nawrocki recently received a boost from Trump and other U.S. conservatives, who see the Polish election as part of a global battle between liberal and populist right-wing forces. His campaign has echoed themes popular on the American right, including skepticism toward EU bureaucracy and emphasis on Christian identity. His supporters feel that Trzaskowski, with his pro-EU views, would hand over control of key Polish issues to Paris and Berlin. Nawrocki also has been endorsed by the Trump administration and conservative Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Many European centrists are rooting for Trzaskowski, seeing in him someone who would defend democracy as it faces pressure from authoritarian forces across the globe. He has received the support of new centrist Romanian President Nicusor Dan — who recently defeated a far-right nationalist. Nawrocki has faced a number of scandals over the past months, but it's not clear that they are hurting him. In fact, they might have the opposite effect. Many right-wing voters don't believe the allegations and accuse the media of using its power to hurt him, creating what appears to be a rallying effect around him. Nawrocki himself has acknowledged that he took part in an organized brawl including football hooligans in 2009. A former boxer, he said he has taken part in various forms of 'noble male battle' in his life. Polish media have also reported on his connections to gangsters and the world of prostitution. Tusk accused Law and Justice party leader Jarosław Kaczynski of tapping Nawrocki despite questions about his past. 'You knew about everything, Jarosław. About the connections with the gangsters, about 'fixing girls,'' Tusk wrote on X. 'The entire responsibility for this catastrophe falls on you!' 1. Security and war in Ukraine: With Russia's war in Ukraine in its fourth year, Polish voters are acutely attuned to issues of regional security. Both candidates support continued backing for Ukraine, but to different degrees. Nawrocki believes that Ukraine should never join NATO, while Trzaskowski believes Ukraine should be allowed to join one day when the current war is over. 2. Rule of law and democracy: Trzaskowski has pledged to support the restoration of judicial independence and repair relations with the EU, which viewed changes by Law and Justice as anti-democratic. Tusk has tried to change some legislation, but has faced resistance from the the outgoing president, Duda. Nawrocki, while less outspoken than his party patrons, is seen as likely to preserve Law and Justice's changes that politicized the courts. 3. Women's rights: Abortion remains a divisive issue in Poland, especially after a near-total ban was imposed under Law and Justice. Trzaskowski supports loosening restrictions and has backed proposals to legalize abortion up to 12 weeks. Nawrocki opposes any liberalization and has campaigned as a defender of traditional conservative values.
Washington Post
an hour ago
- Washington Post
Poland holds a pivotal presidential runoff influenced by Trump, the far right and the war in Ukraine
WARSAW, Poland — Poland is set to hold a presidential runoff election on Sunday between two candidates offering starkly different visions for the country's future. The winner will succeed President Andrzej Duda, a conservative who is finishing his second and final term. The outcome will determine whether Poland embraces a nationalist populist trajectory or pivots more fully toward liberal, pro-European policies. An exit poll by Ipsos will be released when polls close on Sunday at 9 p.m. local time, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Final results are expected Monday.
San Francisco Chronicle
an hour ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
Poland holds a pivotal presidential runoff influenced by Trump, the far right and the war in Ukraine
WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Poland is set to hold a presidential runoff election on Sunday between two candidates offering starkly different visions for the country's future. The winner will succeed President Andrzej Duda, a conservative who is finishing his second and final term. The outcome will determine whether Poland embraces a nationalist populist trajectory or pivots more fully toward liberal, pro-European policies. An exit poll by Ipsos will be released when polls close on Sunday at 9 p.m. local time, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Final results are expected Monday. Whoever wins can be expected to either help or hinder the agenda of the centrist government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk thanks to the presidential power to veto laws. An unpredictable vote at a time of tensions The vote comes amid heightened regional tensions driven by Russia's war in neighboring Ukraine, security concerns across Europe and internal debates about the rule of law. It follows a first round on May 18, in which Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski won more than 31% of the vote and Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian, earned nearly 30%. Eleven other candidates were eliminated. Opinion polls show the two men running neck and neck. Other factors add to the unpredictability. Nawrocki did much better in the first round than surveys had predicted, indicating that his strength was underestimated. On the other hand, large numbers of Poles abroad have registered to vote in the second round, which could help Trzaskowski. The candidates Nawrocki is a 42-year-old historian who was tapped as by the national conservative Law and Justice party despite a lack of political experience or party membership. But this is seen as acting in his favor, as the party, which governed for 2015-2023, seeks to refresh its image before a parliamentary election in 2027. Nawrocki's supporters describe him as the embodiment of traditional, patriotic Polish values. They believe U.S. President Donald Trump's support for him will strengthen Poland's ties with the United States and make the country safer. Trzaskowski, 53, is Warsaw's mayor and a close ally of Tusk. A deputy leader of Civic Platform, a pro-European Union party, he has been prominent in national politics for years. This is his second presidential bid after narrowly losing to Duda in 2020. Supporters credit him with modernizing Warsaw through infrastructure, public transit expansion and cultural investments. He is widely seen as pragmatic and focused on strengthening ties with other European nations. A global ideological war Nawrocki recently received a boost from Trump and other U.S. conservatives, who see the Polish election as part of a global battle between liberal and populist right-wing forces. His campaign has echoed themes popular on the American right, including skepticism toward EU bureaucracy and emphasis on Christian identity. His supporters feel that Trzaskowski, with his pro-EU views, would hand over control of key Polish issues to Paris and Berlin. Nawrocki also has been endorsed by the Trump administration and conservative Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Many European centrists are rooting for Trzaskowski, seeing in him someone who would defend democracy as it faces pressure from authoritarian forces across the globe. He has received the support of new centrist Romanian President Nicusor Dan — who recently defeated a far-right nationalist. Nawrocki's scandals Nawrocki has faced a number of scandals over the past months, but it's not clear that they are hurting him. In fact, they might have the opposite effect. Many right-wing voters don't believe the allegations and accuse the media of using its power to hurt him, creating what appears to be a rallying effect around him. Nawrocki himself has acknowledged that he took part in an organized brawl including football hooligans in 2009. A former boxer, he said he has taken part in various forms of 'noble male battle' in his life. Polish media have also reported on his connections to gangsters and the world of prostitution. Tusk accused Law and Justice party leader Jarosław Kaczynski of tapping Nawrocki despite questions about his past. 'You knew about everything, Jarosław. About the connections with the gangsters, about 'fixing girls,'" Tusk wrote on X. "The entire responsibility for this catastrophe falls on you!' The key issues at stake 1. Security and war in Ukraine: With Russia's war in Ukraine in its fourth year, Polish voters are acutely attuned to issues of regional security. Both candidates support continued backing for Ukraine, but to different degrees. Nawrocki believes that Ukraine should never join NATO, while Trzaskowski believes Ukraine should be allowed to join one day when the current war is over. 2. Rule of law and democracy: Trzaskowski has pledged to support the restoration of judicial independence and repair relations with the EU, which viewed changes by Law and Justice as anti-democratic. Tusk has tried to change some legislation, but has faced resistance from the the outgoing president, Duda. Nawrocki, while less outspoken than his party patrons, is seen as likely to preserve Law and Justice's changes that politicized the courts. 3. Women's rights: Abortion remains a divisive issue in Poland, especially after a near-total ban was imposed under Law and Justice. Trzaskowski supports loosening restrictions and has backed proposals to legalize abortion up to 12 weeks. Nawrocki opposes any liberalization and has campaigned as a defender of traditional conservative values.
