How Tariffs Could Lead to Summer Travel Deals: 'So Much Uncertainty'

Newsweek

07-05-2025

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As tariff-driven economic uncertainty abounds worldwide, U.S. travelers are increasingly taking a cautious approach heading into the busy season — potentially leading to last-minute deals as demand cools for summer getaways.
Widespread apprehension and confusion created by President Trump's on-again, off-again tariffs is impacting the upcoming peak travel season, with fewer foreign visitors expected to the United States and more Americans scaling back both international and domestic plans as costs will likely trickle down, one analyst told Newsweek.
"The tariffs theoretically are making the cost of goods more expensive, so if an airline is looking to restock its lounges, restock its catering, or a hotel is looking to restock minbars and supplies, that would theoretically lead to higher prices," said Nick Ewen, senior editorial director of The Points Guy, a popular travel website.
But Ewen said overall economic apprehension and recession fears are having a much larger immediate impact on the summer travel season compared to the tariffs themselves, many of which have been paused until early July with the exception of a 10-percent baseline tariff and a 145-percent tariff on many Chinese goods. Beijing has 125-percent retaliatory hikes in place on American-made merchandise.
Added capacity on airlines and softening demand could lead to better deals for consumers, but expect tariffs to have a big impact on summer travel, one expert told Newsweek.
Added capacity on airlines and softening demand could lead to better deals for consumers, but expect tariffs to have a big impact on summer travel, one expert told Newsweek."A lot of consumers are saying we are going to pull back, we just don't know what this is going to look like in a month, three months, six months," Ewen said. "Maybe they're not planning as far ahead as possible. So, the softening demand is actually having a downward pressure on pricing and may continue to do so while we're still in these uncertain times."
As a result, unexpected deals may become available as summer approaches. But airlines are also starting to cut back capacity along some routes, including flights between the United States and Canada, Ewen said.
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"A lot of airlines are in this messy middle, as I call it," he said. "They don't really know what ultimately is going to happen this summer. A lot of them have suspended their guidance financially because they just don't know, there's just so much uncertainty out there."
A lack of near-term clarity about costs coupled with longer-term recession fears leaves many unanswered questions for the summer travel season, Ewen said.
"Even Europeans have cut back," he said. "Some of the numbers have shown a drop in bookings for Europeans coming to the U.S. It hasn't necessarily translated the other way; demand to Europe is still strong from American travelers. But there's been some international demand that is softening given the broader environment that we're seeing here in the U.S."
Still, much like the United States' trading partners, travelers can expect volatility ahead, Ewen said.
"We're in that 90-day pause," he said, referring to the reciprocal tariffs announced on "Liberation Day" that sent markets into a tailspin before they were temporarily halted. "Are there going to be deals struck? Is this going to be a whole lot of nothing at the end of the day? We just don't know."
Fewer Americans are planning getaways this summer, a recent survey found. Just 46 percent said they intend to take trips in the coming months, according to a Bankrate poll conducted in mid-March. That's down from 53 percent in the same period a year ago. Most respondents cited affordability as the key reason why they intend to scale back or hit pause on their travel plans.
Just 46 percent of U.S. adults plan to travel this summer, down from 53 percent in 2024, a recent survey found.
Just 46 percent of U.S. adults plan to travel this summer, down from 53 percent in 2024, a recent survey found.Just 15 percent said they planned to travel internationally, while 24 percent said they're planning to stay put. Another 23 percent said they still aren't sure, reflecting the unease permeating throughout the travel industry as the critical Memorial Day holiday weekend approaches.
While Ewen advised travelers to take a flexible approach as deals may materialize late in the season, other analysts suggest waiting to book that trip could prove costly.
"When planning summer travel, it's generally advised to book sooner rather than later," Bankrate senior industry analyst Ted Rossman said in a statement in late April. "It also pays to zig when others zag. For example, think about visiting a destination during its shoulder season or offseason. Take an early flight or a late flight or a connecting flight. Or fly midweek."
Ewen, meanwhile, said undecided travelers could potentially see last-minute deals, where booking trips as late as two to three weeks out could prove beneficial regarding hotel prices and other related costs.
"There are still signs that the overall demand is going to be lower until we really have more clarity in terms of how the tariffs are going to impact our overall wallet," Ewen told Newsweek.
"Because this goes beyond just the cost of the flight and the cost of the hotels. If you're a family of five and your grocery bill is all of a sudden going to be an extra $50 or $80 every week, that's going to significantly cut into your household budget and that discretionary income to use towards a trip — even if it's just a road trip."
Smaller U.S. cities like Cleveland, above, or Detroit and St. Louis could see an increase in domestic visitors this summer as tariff-related uncertainty unfolds, Ewen said.
Smaller U.S. cities like Cleveland, above, or Detroit and St. Louis could see an increase in domestic visitors this summer as tariff-related uncertainty unfolds, Ewen said.
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Ewen predicts more Americans may take shorter trips closer to home rather than the typical weeklong getaway. Ten percent of respondents said they plan "staycations" this summer, down slightly from 12 percent a year ago, according to Bankrate's annual survey.
"Instead of taking that trip to Florida, we're going to do a short, three-hour drive to Kennywood or Cedar Point," Ewen surmised, referring to popular amusement parks in Pennsylvania and Ohio. "You may see some changes in terms of the travel because they may look at shorter distances, shorter durations, because they just won't have the discretionary funds to spend because of the increased prices. Again though, it's all uncertain because we don't really know what's the going to look like."
Meanwhile, international visits to the United States fell 14 percent in March, compared to the same span in 2024, according to the U.S. Travel Association. Canada and Western Europe represented the steepest declines, while Florida was the preferred destination for the visitors who did come.
If the 14 percent decline held steady throughout 2025, the U.S. could lose $21 billion in tourism revenue, the group said, which would be compounded if the economy goes into recession as some economists are now predicting.
Domestic travel has remained "relatively steady," but is starting to show signs of slowing, including flat economic indicators like hotel occupancy and revenue and consumer spending, according to the U.S. Travel Association.
Ewen said he was bewildered to be discussing the possibility of finding last-minute deals for the normally hectic summer travel season.
"It's kind of wild to me that I'm even talking about summer travel and deals in the same breath because those typically are so few and far between that it's not even worth bringing up," he said.
"But obviously, this is not a normal pre-summer travel conversation."