Ukraine Wears Down Russian Artillery, But Drone Threat Is Growing

Forbes

3 days ago

A destroyed Russian self-propelled gun
Headlines early on in the invasion warned about the sheer power of Russian artillery, with advances following massive 'fire curtain' barrages. Russian artillery was estimated outgun Ukrainian by a factor of ten, and President Zelensky repeatedly appealed to allies for more shells. The situation has changed, but as 'Michael,' Commander of the Typhoon drone unit of the National Guard of Ukraine, told me, the artillery has not gone away -- and drones are a growing threat.
Ukraine has been highly successful at countering Russian artillery. Any gun firing can be spotted by counter-artillery radar, like the U.S. -made AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder, which tracks shells in flight and calculates their source. New Ukrainian-made acoustic detectors which recently went into mass production are likely to figure increasingly.
U.S. delivering two AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder radar units to Ukraine in 2015
'The radar is typically the first step. It can detect the approximate area of a firing position, but it's not precise,' says Michael. 'Depending on distance and terrain, it may narrow the location down to a 200-by-200-meter area, which is too broad for a direct strike.'
Pinpointing the exact firing location is a job for the drones.
'Drones are essential for confirming the exact location of artillery,' says Michael. 'We use fixed-wing drones, some with real-time video, others capturing high-resolution photos, for wide-area reconnaissance. These platforms allow us to assess whether the artillery is still in position and provide up-to-date imagery.'
Visual observation using the drone's powerful zoom cameras is usually the best way to find artillery.
'Artillery is easiest to spot when it's firing -- muzzle flashes, smoke, or movement of the crew make it visible,' says Michael. 'Also, we can identify the artillery by its silhouette, even if it's partially hidden somewhere in the trees or buildings. In covered areas, we look for signs like tracks, disturbed ground, or heat if thermal optics are available.'
When a drone operator positively confirms the exact location of a Russian artillery piece, it needs to be struck rapidly before it can move. In the past this would have been a matter of counter battery fire, using artillery to destroy artillery. Now there are other options.
Michael says that counter-battery fire is still used, with a drone operator giving the co-ordinates of the target to the gun crew and calling out adjustments needed to put shells on target. But much of the counter-battery work ss carried out by drones.
'FPV drones, both quadcopters and fixed-wing types, have become more effective than traditional artillery in terms of precision engagement,' says Michael. 'A high-quality FPV drone for now is the most effective way to destroy the artillery system.'
Ukrainian volunteers with DARTS fixed-wing FPV
Several different types are used depending on the range, with fixed-wing FPVs typically having longer reach.
Surprisingly, drones are preferred because they are faster. It is highly counter-intuitive that 100 mph drone will reach a target quicker than a 700-mph artillery shell, but what counts is how long it takes to hit the target.
'With FPV drones, even though the flight time can be minutes depending on the distance, the first strike often hits,' Michael explains. 'With artillery it often takes several rounds to hit the target, especially in dynamic conditions.'
Dynamic conditions may mean a situation where a self-propelled gun fires off a few rounds and speeds away down a track. An artillery shell arriving after thirty seconds will miss by hundreds of meters. A drone which arrives later can spot the vehicle, follow it, and carry out a precision strike.
Towed guns are less likely to get away. But they are harder targets because they are not packed with fuel and ammunition like self-propelled guns.
A follow-up FPV from Bords of Magyar inspects damage to a Russian howitzer, confirming the barrel ... More has been perforated making the weapon useless
'To effectively disable them, you have to hit specific parts—like the breech, recoil system, or the towing vehicle,' says Michael.
The preferred technique has been previously seen in videos from the Birds of Magyar unit, with FPV drones hovering a few inches away from a gun barrel before detonating. Scoring a hit requires a high level of operator skill as well as a robust technical setup.
'Maintaining a reliable video signal is critical.' says Michael. 'Without a stable connection between the drone and ground operator, it's hard to carry out the kind of pinpoint strike needed for such a small target,'
Fiber drones, which provide a high-resolution image and are not affected by interference or terrain, and which Ukraine is starting to deploy at scale, may help with this.
Afterwards reconnaissance drones can confirm whether a kill has been scored or whether further action is required.
But while Ukraine claims to have destroyed a large number of Russian artillery pieces, a claim supported by the rate at which the stockpiles in Russia are being depleted, the Russians are still able to maintain a significant artillery forced at the front. Some 2024 estimates suggested that Russia might start running low this year, it has not happened yet.
Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi says Russia's long-range striking power has been halved, but on the front line there are still plenty of shells coming down.
'Their artillery remains a serious and ongoing threat,' says Michael.
And while Ukrainian interceptors have brought down thousands of the Russian reconnaissance drones that find targets for their artillery, these are still also very much present.
'As for Russian recon drones, there's no sign of a shortage,' says Michael. 'Recon drones are constantly present in the air.'
Meanwhile another sort of drone is giving more concern.
The Russian group Sudoplatov produces large numbers of FPVs
'What has changed is the rise in the use of FPV drones,' says Michael. 'Currently, we're observing several hundred FPV strikes per day. These drones are increasingly taking over roles that would have traditionally involved artillery fire, especially for high-precision or time-sensitive targets.' [My emphasis]
What is interesting here is that many commentators have argued that Ukraine only uses drones because it lacks artillery. Now it seems that Russia, which still seems to have abundant artillery, is also leaning increasingly into drones for long-range strikes.
Like Ukraine, Russia has been ramping up FPV production at pace, and plans to build 2 million in 2025, compared to 3 million artillery shells. At this rate, both countries will soon be fielding more FPVs than artillery shells.
Russia's artillery is rapidly being eroded as the thousands of guns in storage are put into service and destroyed. When it is gone, the days of massed firepower will have passed. But the era of massed precision drone strikes will just be beginning.