Europe must prepare to defend itself as US support for Nato wanes
Encouragingly, and with the full spirit of the entente cordiale speeding them on, the French president and the British prime minister will be delivering much the same message to Donald Trump when he makes time for them at the White House this week.
For all the complexities of the situation, Emmanuel Macron – and, on Thursday, Sir Keir Starmer – will say something very simple and straightforward to the president: Ukraine must have a seat at the negotiating table. The argument, which should be irrefutable, is that there can be no lasting peace in Ukraine without Ukraine.
If the two men are fortunate, the president of the United States will listen to them, offer something in the way of a promise to consult Volodymyr Zelensky – and not lose his temper. If Mr Macron and Sir Keir find their coordinated diplomatic efforts making further, unexpected progress, then they might even get what Sir Keir calls a 'backstop' American security guarantee for Ukraine's new de facto border with Russia, with some restitution of Ukrainian lands.
Somewhere in this mix will fall a minerals deal on American exploitation of Ukraine's natural resources (at least the ones outside Russia's control) – after the deputy Ukrainian prime minister tweeted (and then briefly untweeted) the dramatic news that her country was about to sign a gigantic minerals deal with the Trump administration.
There will also be a form of words on Ukraine's status in relation to Nato and the European Union.
It is obviously worth a try – and however miserable such a denouement would be, it would be preferable to the kind of punishing Carthaginian settlement that President Putin and President Trump appear to be plotting.
However, the signs from the White House are not promising. President Trump has not yet chosen to belittle the British and French leaders with insulting nicknames and open contempt. In fact, he seems to like Sir Keir, at least. But he's not impressed, either, remarking that the pair 'haven't done anything' to end the war in Ukraine. As for President Zelensky having a seat at the table, Mr Trump opines that he has 'no cards' and 'I don't think he's very important to be in meetings'.
Now, though, a new leader has suddenly emerged with a rather more clear-sighted perspective. The likely next chancellor of Germany has recognised what has become all too depressingly apparent in the last week: America has switched sides.
Chancellor-designate Friedrich Merz is perfectly candid about the catastrophe that is befalling the free world. He has 'absolutely no illusions' about Mr Trump, who 'pretty much no longer cares about the fate of Europe …' Instead, he urges 'independence' from the US.
It's such a break with the geopolitics of the past 80 years that many, understandably enough, are unable or unwilling to come to terms with the changed reality. Yet Merz is entirely right. Even if Nato continues in existence, there can be no real certainty that the Americans would automatically and unconditionally honour their obligations under Article 5 of the Atlantic Treaty. That famously declares that 'an attack on one is an attack on all' and was last activated by allies to assist the United States after the 9/11 attacks.
Would that be reciprocated now? Would President Trump threaten his friend Vladimir Putin with nuclear weapons just because Russian troops have made an incursion into Estonia? Would America fight to save Latvia? Bulgaria? Germany? How much would the bill from Washington be?
Things are, after all, transactional these days. The era is over when, as John F Kennedy put it, the United States 'shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty'. These days, it's the victims of aggression who are told to bear such burdens.
Lest anyone were under any such illusions, in his Valentine's Day speech, vice-president JD Vance brutally told Europe that the US does not share its values any longer. The US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, also told European allies that America's priorities lie elsewhere. It is not that Europe has drifted from America, but simply that America now favours Russia and echoes its propaganda. Mr Trump is a Russian ally, if not an asset.
Mr Merz is right to call for a Europe more able to defend itself and to take control of its defences. There is an emerging consensus to that effect. The continent has no choice; the geopolitical decision was made for it when Americans decided to put Mr Trump back in the White House.
Europe is vastly wealthier than Russia, it has the funds and the industrial resources to defend itself – if it wants to. In the short run, it could seize frozen Russian assets of about £300bn to prevent a Ukrainian collapse and to fund its reconstruction.
The French and British possess nuclear weapons. Ukraine could become a member of a new European defence and collective security pact – and a considerable asset. Combined, even the denuded armies, air forces and navies of the European powers would be formidable.
In the longer run, a coordinated defence structure to succeed Nato, with the necessary resources, will mean painful decisions about Europe's welfare states and levels of personal consumption – guns, not butter. It is an unfamiliar situation, not seen since the end of the Cold War.
Europe itself is going to have to pay a price and bear some burdens if it wishes to stay free. Has it the resolve to unite and succeed?
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
NBC News
6 minutes ago
- NBC News
Prince William says ocean conservation is a challenge like no other ahead of U.N. summit
The third U.N. Ocean Conference opens Monday, with Britain's Prince William among those raising the pressure on nations to turn decades of promises into real protection for the sea. The summit comes as just 2.7% of the ocean is effectively protected from destructive extractive activities, according to the nonprofit Marine Conservation Institute. That is far below the target agreed under the '30x30' pledge to conserve 30% of land and sea by 2030. Atop this year's agenda is ratification of the High Seas Treaty. Adopted in 2023, the treaty would for the first time allow nations to establish marine protected areas in international waters, which cover nearly two-thirds of the ocean and are largely ungoverned. Speaking ahead of the conference, Britain's Prince William said Sunday that rising sea temperatures, plastic pollution and overfishing were putting pressure on fragile ecosystems and the people who depend on them. 'What once seemed an abundant resource is diminishing before our eyes,' William, heir to the British throne, told the Blue Economy and Finance Forum in Monaco. He described the challenge as being 'like none we have faced before'. 'Put simply: the ocean is under enormous threat, but it can revive itself. But, only if together, we act now,' he told the meeting of investors and policymakers. Mauro Randone, regional projects manager at the World Wildlife Fund's Mediterranean Marine Initiative, said that 'it's the Wild West out there with countries just fishing anywhere without any sort of regulation, and that needs to change.' 'The high seas belong to everyone and no one practically at the same time, and countries are finally committing to establish some rules,' he added. The ocean is critical in stabilizing Earth's climate and sustaining life. It generates 50% of the oxygen we breathe, absorbs around 30% of carbon dioxide emissions and captures more than 90% of the excess heat caused by those emissions. Without a healthy ocean, experts warn, climate goals will remain out of reach. The treaty will only come into force once 60 countries ratify it. As of Monday, just 32 countries had. Advocates hope UNOC can build enough momentum to cross the threshold, which would allow for the first official Oceans Conference of Parties. 'Two-thirds of the ocean is areas beyond national jurisdiction — that's half our planet,' said Minna Epps, director of global ocean policy at the International Union for Conservation of Nature. 'We cannot possibly protect 30% of the ocean if it doesn't include the high seas.' South Korea, France and the European Union have championed the treaty, but most large ocean nations have yet to ratify it, including the rest of the G20. Thousands of attendees are expected in Nice, from delegates and heads of state to scientists and industry leaders. The United States has yet to confirm a formal delegation. Beyond new commitments, the conference highlights the growing gap between marine protection declarations and real-world conservation. France, the conference co-host, claims to have surpassed the 30% target for marine protection. But environmental groups say only 3% of French waters are fully protected from harmful activities such as bottom trawling and industrial fishing. 'The government declares these as protected areas, but this is a lie,' said Enric Sala, founder of the National Geographic Pristine Seas marine reserve project. 'Most of it is political box-ticking. It's all paper parks.' That criticism is echoed across the continent. A new World Wildlife Fund report found that although more than 11% of Europe's marine area is designated for protection, just 2% of E.U. waters have management plans in place. Fabien Boileau, director of marine protected areas at France's Office for Biodiversity, acknowledged the presence of bottom trawling in French protected areas, but said it was part of a phased strategy. 'In France, we made the choice to designate large marine protected areas with relatively low levels of regulation at first, betting that stronger protections would be developed over time through local governance,' he said. 'Today, we're gradually increasing the number of zones with stricter protections within those areas.' Advocates say industrial fishing lobbies continue to resist stricter protections, despite evidence that well-managed reserves boost long-term fisheries through the 'spillover effect,' whereby marine life flourishes in nearby waters. 'Protection is not the problem — overfishing is the problem,' Sala said. 'The worst enemy of the fishing industry is themselves.' The conference will feature 10 panels on topics such as blue finance, sustainable fisheries and plastic pollution. Deep sea mining is expected to feature in broader discussions, while small island states are likely to use the platform to advocate for increased climate adaptation funding. The outcome of these discussions will form the basis of the Nice Ocean Action Plan, a declaration of voluntary commitments to be adopted by consensus and presented at the United Nations in New York this July. 'There cannot be a healthy planet without a healthy ocean,' said Peter Thomson, U.N. special envoy for the ocean. 'It's urgent business for us all.'
Reuters
9 minutes ago
- Reuters
Kremlin says NATO air defence plan is confrontational and will cost European taxpayers
MOSCOW, June 9 (Reuters) - The Kremlin said on Monday that NATO's plan for a huge boost to its air and missile defence capabilities was confrontational and would come at the expense of European taxpayers who were being asked to pay to defuse a threat that did not exist. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who is pushing for members to boost defence spending to 3.5% of GDP and commit a further 1.5% to broader security-related spending, was due to use a speech in London on Monday to say that the alliance needed a 400% increase in air and missile defence. Asked about Rutte's planned remarks on air and missile defence, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: "(NATO) is not an instrument for maintaining stability and security on the continent. It is an instrument created for confrontation and has so far kept its true nature disguised. Now it is showing its real nature." Peskov said European taxpayers were the ones who would suffer. "European taxpayers will spend their money to defuse some threat that they say comes from our country, but it is nothing but an ephemeral threat," said Peskov.
The Independent
10 minutes ago
- The Independent
Robert De Niro attacks Donald Trump in Tony Awards speech
Robert De Niro used his Tony Awards speech to take aim at US President Donald Trump. The Hollywood star took centre stage at the prestigious ceremony on Sunday (8 June) and it didn't take him long to launch a scathing attack on Trump. 'I am going to say one thing... F*** Trump,' the 81-year-old said. His speech was met by applause from the audience. De Niro added: 'It's no longer down with Trump, it's f*** Trump.' This is not the first time the actor has hit out at the US president. He also used his speech at the Cannes Film Festival to take aim at him, stating the US's re-elected president posed a global threat.
