Israel's mission hinges on destroying Iran's hardest nuclear target
One factor that could determine whether Israel's audacious attack on Iran proves a daring success or a dangerous mistake is the fate of Iran's Fordow uranium enrichment site.
The big picture: Israel will require unforeseen tactical ingenuity or U.S. assistance to destroy Fordow, which is built into a mountain and deep underground. But if the facility remains intact and accessible, a nuclear program Israel is determined to "eliminate" could actually accelerate.
"The entire operation... really has to be completed with the elimination of Fordow," Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter told Fox News on Friday.
That's why the Israeli government hopes the Trump administration ultimately decides to join Israel's operation.
Breaking it down: Israel lacks the huge bunker busters needed to destroy this facility and the strategic bombers to carry them. The U.S. has both within flying distance of Iran.
An Israeli official claimed to Axios that the U.S. could still join the operation, and that President Trump even suggested he'd do so if necessary in a conversation with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the days leading up to launch.
But a White House official denied that, telling Axios Trump said exactly the opposite. The U.S. currently has no intention of intention of getting directly involved, the official said.
Yes, but: Some experts think Israel could try to replicate the effect of a massive bunker buster by repeatedly bombing the same location.
A much riskier approach would be sending special forces to raid the facility.
Israeli special forces conducted such a raid last September, albeit on a smaller scale, when they destroyed an underground missile factory in Syria by planting and detonating explosives. The entire operation took two hours.
Driving the news: Netanyahu argued Israel was compelled to act because of Iran's growing stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and because intelligence suggested Iran was resuming R&D on nuclear weaponization.
Israel targeted nuclear enrichment facilities, centrifuge production lines and nuclear scientists in hopes of decimating the program.
Iran has long denied any intention of building a bomb, but has enriched uranium far beyond what is required for civilian use.
State of play: International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Grossi told the UN Security Council on Friday that Iran's above-ground enrichment facility in Natanz had been destroyed by Israeli strikes.
Iran has other uranium enrichment facilities, but that's a big setback to the program.
The underground portion of the Natanz facility had not been hit by a physical attack, but the loss of power to the compound as a result of the strikes could have damaged the centrifuges, Grossi said.
Israel destroyed other nuclear sites on Friday in Esfahan.
Zoom in: Grossi also said the Iranian government informed him that Israel had attacked Fordow, though he couldn't personally confirm that.
The IDF has not announced strikes on Fordow, and there are no indications thus far that it has sustained any significant damage.
What to watch: While the U.S. side continues to say that Israel is acting alone, Netanyahu has left open the possibility that could change.
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