Welsh Labour falls to third in poll as voters say 'they haven't got a clue'
Welsh Labour falls to third in poll as voters say 'they haven't got a clue'
A new major poll suggests that Labour is heading towards its poorest performance in the history of devolution, potentially dropping to third place behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in the next Welsh Parliament elections. Wales Online readers have been debating the issue in our comments section.
Released on the eve of the Senedd election anniversary, which will occur on 7 May 2026, the Barn Cymru poll by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University indicates a grim forecast for Labour, with their predicted share at just 18%, trailing behind Plaid Cymru's 30% and Reform UK's 25%.
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Should these figures translate into actual votes, Plaid Cymru would emerge as the largest party with an estimated 35 seats, while Reform UK could secure around 30 seats. Labour would be left with 19 seats, and the Conservatives, who are currently the second-largest party, would fall to fourth place with nine seats. The Lib Dems are expected to gain three seats.
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The data reflects a shift in support away from Labour towards Reform UK and other left-wing parties, highlighting a general dissatisfaction with both the UK and Welsh governments. It also reveals that traditional Labour voters may opt for Plaid Cymru during Senedd elections.
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Reacting to the poll results, First Minister Eluned Morgan described them as a "serious wake up call" for her party. She emphasised the gravity of the situation, saying, "That is a wake up call if ever we've seen one. It is a serious challenge for us. It's a serious challenge for UK Labour and I think it means that we all need to think very seriously about delivery on the things that matter to the people of Wales."
Dr Larner of Cardiff University's Welsh Governance Centre described recent polling as a "substantial shift" from what has been seen previously. He noted that while polls are only snapshots, they do indicate a trend across the UK.
Commenter Felix core says: 'We do not need an English nationalist party, Reform, in charge of the WELSH Senedd.'
Busa1 thinks: 'The Welsh Labour Party has virtually destroyed Wales during the years since being put in power, all they seem to care about is getting rid of all industry, planting trees and wasting our money on the huge white elephant of Cardiff airport.'
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Dm68 agrees: 'Labour 'have to deliver on the things that matter to the people of Wales'. Trouble is, it is blindingly obvious to everyone that they haven't got a clue what the people of Wales want!'
EUandMe thinks: 'I'll vote for any party that allows me to choose a candidate rather than a party. And if the party also promises to abolish the extra waste in the Senedd then that would be a bonus.'
Deankb states: 'I fully expect Labour to have a terrible election in Wales. For far too long, they've taken the electorate for granted. Their decision to cease all road building comes from a party that obviously doesn't commute to work very often. Having said that, I would never, ever vote for Farage. Brexit has been a disaster for the UK, despite Nige telling us we'll be free of the EU & will be drowning in all the extra cash coming our way. He has no plan for the NHS, or education, or anything.'
Dm68 pleads: 'For goodness sake don't vote for Plaid. They are Labour in disguise and have shored them up on numerous occasions including the disastrous 20mph.'
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Jeff2509 replies: '20mph is working to save lives and money. How is that disastrous?'
Alex Peters asks: 'If Labour cared about saving lives, why did they take the Winter Fuel Allowance off pensioners?'
Gar880 retorts: 'They made it means tested rather than universal. Is there a conversation to be had about the threshold to qualify? I believe so. Also that wasn't Welsh Labour that brought in that specific policy. You don't even know what you're raging against.'
1anj thinks: 'Change is great news. Just what the country needs.'
Ironside states: 'I'll be staying home come the next WAE. None of them are worth voting for. None of them will do anything to improve Wales. They will all say they'll do this and that just to get your vote but will never deliver. I've been around long enough to realise what they say and what they are two different things.'
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Ethel the Frog writes: 'We need a serious look at independence.'
PJ372 disagrees: 'Independence would absolutely ruin us, we have no currency of our own, no industry, no army or defence, the list goes on.'
Diane1711 points out: 'Don't forget, we had over a decade of Tory ruling and all the money has gone to those who didn't need any more in the first place! They made a mess of all of it, including the NHS and, unfortunately, it's going to take Labour a long time to put things right.'
How do you think Wales will vote at the next elections? What do you see as the future for Wales? Have your say in our comments section.
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