Could Deni Avdija be the key to a Pistons-like turnaround for the Blazers next season?
Could Deni Avdija be the key to a Pistons-like turnaround for the Blazers next season?
The Detroit Pistons made the biggest turnaround of any team this season and illustrated how quickly things can change.
While that's tougher to do in the Western Conference, the Portland Trail Blazers might be a candidate to mimic Detroit next season.
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For a few months now, the Blazers have looked more spry and confident. This is a direct result of several players flowing into their roles and getting the opportunity to explore their own game within those roles.
The best example of that? Deni Avdija.
A 6-foot-9 Israeli forward who came over from Washington last summer, Avdija has come on as of late after a slow to the season, when he averaged 11.4 points and was a sub-40% shooter from the field in his first 20 games.
In fact, Avdija didn't crack the 20-point barrier over his first 19 games.
Now, in April, Avdija is averaging 31.7 points, 13.7 rebounds and 7 assists.
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Granted, he's only played three games this month, but the point is he is flashing what he's capable of doing.
With Scoot Henderson, the third overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, not yet living up to expected franchise player status, Avdija has perhaps taken the mantle until further notice.
Since the turn of the calendar year, the 24-year-old is putting up 19.8 points, 8.4 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game, becoming one of the team's leading playmakers and shot-takers.
Avdija is playing with a far greater sense of freedom, probing defenses, snaking pick-and-rolls, displaying patience in the post and overall looking Luka Dončić-esque.
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Most will rightfully wonder if Avdija's play is sustainable, and that's indeed the biggest question for Portland going into this summer.
Deni Avdija of the Portland Trail Blazers goes to the hole against Jamal Shead of the Toronto Raptors at the Scotiabank Arena on April 3, 2025, in Toronto. (Mert Alper Dervis/Anadolu via Getty Images)
(Anadolu via Getty Images)
Because in Avdija, the Blazers have a cheat code in the form of his contract.
When the Wizards extended him after his third season to $55 million over four years, no one realized just how big of a bargain that deal would be.
Not only is Avdija's annual compensation level low — but it even declines in value as the contract ages.
His last salaried year will sit at just $11.8 million, or an estimated 6.3% of the salary cap, and falls under $15 million next season, which brings Portland enormous levels of salary-cap flexibility, especially if the forward is trending toward stardom.
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If Avdija's play has indeed leveled up and he's perhaps looking at an All-Star-caliber campaign next season, it's crucial for Portland to optimize its own salary sheet and benefit from the forward's modest compensation.
That means, in particular, finding new homes to Deandre Ayton and Jerami Grant. Both are solid players, but they don't seem to fit the blueprint of the roster moving forward, and their combined salaries will take up more than $67.5 million next year.
Moving off both players will be difficult, as virtually no team is projected to have any type of meaningful cap space this summer — outside of Brooklyn — and why would teams be interested in taking on players who don't fit their rebuilding timelines?
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This is where Portland could hope to identify teams with significant depth that wish to consolidate contracts.
Essentially, the Blazers could break Ayton and Grant into smaller pieces, contractually speaking, assuming they find teams that actively wish to get more top heavy.
But make no mistake. That's easier said than done.
By and large, however, the Blazers shouldn't be looking to tear much down. A lot of what they have is working for them. The aforementioned Henderson is improving, as is his backcourt partner, Shaedon Sharpe, and the franchise appears committed to last year's lottery pick, Donovan Clingan, as its center moving forward.
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Toumani Camara, Portland's two-way defensive ace, has started for the Blazers all season and is expected to continue to play a huge role.
Anfernee Simons remains a major zone buster who can play off the attention given to others, meaning he's a weapon next to Henderson and Avdija, especially if both level up next season. That could mean a lot of open 3s for the 6-3 Simons.
It's also worth noting the Blazers are expected to land in roughly the same spot in the lottery as last year, likely selecting within the top 10.
Overall, the Blazers have a recipe for success. Now it comes down to figuring out if the ingredients are of high enough quality to push them into the playoffs next season.
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We can assume they aren't much interested in making the postseason this year, as they sat Avdija for the final three minutes in Friday's loss to the Chicago Bulls, with the Blazers down five points.
He had 37 points, 11 rebounds and five assists by that point and was slicing up Chicago's defense. Yet, instead of going for a potential win, the Blazers seemingly opted for more lottery balls.
That might not be kosher for the NBA, and understandably so, but it does make sense for Portland to look at the Western Conference picture and decide to prolong its playoff push to next year.
But regardless of how they finish out their last week of the season, the Blazers have become a team to watch next season.
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