UAE, Russian Presidents hold phone call discussing ways to contain regional escalation
UAE President His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and His Excellency Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation, held a phone call today to review the strategic partnership between the two countries, as well as the latest developments in the Middle East and the grave implications for regional and global security.
The two leaders discussed efforts being made to contain the situation and put an end to the escalation, stressing the importance of exercising restraint and pursuing dialogue to avoid further threats to security and stability.
They underscored their support for all efforts aimed at achieving a solution through diplomatic means
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The National
30 minutes ago
- The National
Jailed PKK leader Ocalan needs outside contact to dissolve group, pro-Kurdish politicians say
The jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) Abdullah Ocalan needs better communication with the outside world to manage the militant group's proposed disarmament and political transition, pro-Kurdish leaders in Turkey have said. "Mr Ocalan will personally lead this disarmament process," Tulay Hatimogullari, co-chairman of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy (DEM) Party, said in Istanbul on Wednesday. "Therefore, for him to work more comfortably on this matter, he wants to hold meetings with many groups in Turkey, the Middle East, Europe – in short, all over the world." Ocalan, whose group is designated a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the EU and the US, called on PKK members in February to lay down their arms and for the group to be dissolved. His call came after a months-long process initiated by an ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the ultranationalist politician Devlet Bahceli, to offer greater freedom for Ocalan in exchange for the PKK's dissolution. Ocalan intends to transform the PKK into a political party based on 'political internationalism', Ms Hatimogullari said. 'After the weapons are laid down, how will the PKK cadres take on roles and missions in this regard? she said. "To discuss all of this and consult with others, it is necessary for him [Ocalan] to meet with everyone. We can evaluate this as a first step.' Ocalan also wants to meet leaders in Iraq and Syria, both of which have large Kurdish populations with varying degrees of autonomous governance, she said. "He wants to meet both with representatives of the autonomous administration in northern and eastern Syria, and with representatives of the Damascus government. The same goes for Iraq and many other countries." Kurdish politicians, who distinguish themselves from the PKK, are pushing for Turkey's government to move faster in what they describe as a democratisation process aimed at peace. The Turkish government has framed it as an exercise in achieving a 'terror-free Turkey', following more than four decades of conflict with the Kurdish militant group. 'The fact that it is progressing slowly does not mean that it is deadlocked. I think it needs to be accelerated,' Ms Hatimogullari said. Broadly, Kurdish politicians are calling for better prison conditions for Ocalan, who has been incarcerated on a remote island in the Sea of Marmara, south of Istanbul, since 1999. They want the formation of a parliamentary commission to solidify the process in law and to make recommendations for amendments to anti-terrorism legislation. They also want greater rights to use the Kurdish language and an end to curbs on Kurdish political activity. Government officials have said little about how the PKK's dissolution and disarmament will be managed and it is unclear to what extent they are willing to meet the DEM party's expectations. The government seeks co-ordination with other parties for the process to succeed, Mr Erdogan said on Wednesday. 'We need co-operation and the development of the spirit of working together to easily reach the goal of a terror-free Turkey, whose strategic importance is understood,' he told MPs in Ankara. The parliamentary commission needs to be functional, effective and results-driven, DEM co-chairman Tuncer Bakirhan said. The conflict between Iran and Israel adds more urgency, as Turkey needs to maximise its stability in the face of regional hostilities, he added. The commission "must not just engage in debate; it should provide legal proposals to the parliament ... and ensure successful progress on this issue", he said. The DEM is pushing for the commission to start work before the Turkish parliament's summer break, he added. The PKK agreed to heed Ocalan's call and disband last month. Yet the process of laying down weapons and deciding the fate of its fighters is complex. The PKK has conditioned laying down their weapons on 'freedom' for Ocalan and are in contact with the Turkish government over the disarmament process, Ms Hatimogullari said. Whether that means his release or the ability to hold consultations on the process from prison has not yet been established. 'Of course, the warring sides are already in contact with each other – this is happening outside the DEM party, outside of democratic politics,' she said. "Our view is that if steps are taken in this regard, the disarmament process will gain momentum very quickly. But as for how the dialogue between them will evolve in the upcoming period – we cannot predict that.' The government has not confirmed it is in talks with the PKK over the disarmament. Turkish intelligence services would 'closely monitor whether promises are kept' around dissolution, Mr Erdogan said last month. Releasing Ocalan would be politically difficult for the Turkish government: the conflict with the PKK has killed 40,000 people across both sides, and the release of the man heading the group that forms Turkey's number one national security issue would be unpopular. DEM officials, who have been allowed to visit Ocalan several times in recent months, said his overall prison conditions have not changed, but he now spends less time in solitary confinement. He is able to meet up to three other prisoners, chosen by him and his lawyers, to hold 'study groups', said Ms Hatimogullari. "He is in quite good spirits."
The National
30 minutes ago
- The National
Is Israel aiming for regime change in Iran?
As Israeli air strikes hammer targets across Iran, officially aimed at dismantling its nuclear and missile infrastructure, questions are being raised about whether the campaign marks the start of a broader push for regime change in Tehran. The name of Israel's air assault – Operation Rising Lion – is a reference to the big cat on Iran's pre-revolutionary flag, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly suggested Iranian citizens rise up against their government. In an interview with Fox News on Sunday, he was asked whether regime change was a goal of the military operation. 'It could certainly be the result, because Iran is very weak,' Mr Netanyahu said. 'The decision to act, to rise up, at this time is the decision of the Iranian people.' He told Israeli journalists the next day that 'this is a very weak regime that now understands how weak it is. We could see many changes in Iran.' Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's last shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, has been urging Iranians to rise up, following years of anti-government protests that have been repeatedly met with brutal repression. 'The Islamic Republic has come to its end and is collapsing,' he said in video posted on social media. "What has begun is irreversible. The future is bright, and together, we will turn the page of history. Now is the time to stand up, the time to reclaim Iran. May I be with you soon." Mr Pahlavi, who has lived in exile for decades, has long positioned himself as a potential transitional figure for a post-Islamic Republic Iran. But 'Pahlavi is not a politically significant individual', said Ali Alfoneh, author of Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran. 'Because of his close association with Prime Minister Netanyahu, his public standing is in freefall in Iran, especially as we are seeing increased number of civilian casualties of the Israeli bombings.' 'Encouraging foreign powers to bomb Iran will not increase his popularity at home,' Mr Alfoneh added. 'He should be asked, 'do you really want to be the king of a heap of ruins? Is this really what you want to be a king for?'' French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday warned against any move to alter Iran's leadership with force. 'We don't want Iran to get a nuclear weapon,' Mr Macron said. 'But the biggest error would be to use military strikes to change the regime because it would then be chaos.' Mr Alfoneh said Israel's end goal is not only the destruction of Iran's nuclear and missile programme, or regime change, but the 'fragmentation of Iran as a state'. 'We are seeing tendencies towards the beginning of a civil war, with Iran's periphery regions rebelling against the centre,' he said. 'It is also remarkable that Israel has also targeted mechanised and armoured divisions in north-western parts of Iran." This amounted to a clear indication that Israel is trying to weaken the armoured divisions that would face any Kurdish insurgents. 'Therefore, I'm not expecting the Iranian middle-class to fight the regime at a time and circumstances when there is a very real risk of collapse of the central power in Tehran and a civil war breaking,' Mr Alfoneh said. The people of Iran will all unite to preserve the country 'in spite of the hatred for the regime'. Israeli operations are designed to weaken Iran's military capacity and destabilise its leadership, but regime change is not the explicit goal, a US-based Iran analyst told The National. 'The aim is to force a choice: Iran can maintain its regime or its nuclear programme, not both,' said Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran. 'I don't think regime change is an explicit goal of this operation.' Still, he noted, 'depending on how events play out, it can result in regime collapse that could lead to regime change'. A political member of an Iraqi armed faction dismissed the possibility of regime change in Tehran. 'If the Israelis believe they can defeat 100 million Iranians, they're delusional,' the official said. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Iran's regional adversaries had steadily intensified their demands – from restricting its nuclear programme to now targeting its missile capabilities and openly discussing overthrowing its government. 'We've definitely noticed the escalation in the rhetoric of aggression towards Iran – from preventing it from obtaining nuclear weapons, to banning enrichment on Iranian soil, then banning enrichment altogether, then dismantling the entire nuclear programme, and now to denying Iran the right to missile capabilities and production – all the way to both veiled and open Israeli threats of regime change in Iran,' the official said. Meanwhile, a political figure close to Iran-backed Hezbollah said Israel's military actions against Iran could redefine regional conflict dynamics. 'The developments in the Israeli aggression against Iran may reveal the potential for a change in the rules of the game and how deeply any foreign actor becomes involved in the war, especially given the Israeli narrative of 'regime change',' the source told The National on condition of anonymity. 'That could shift the entire equation.' They denied Iran had sought military help from Hezbollah or allied groups, despite escalating hostilities. 'It's a given that Hezbollah supports Iran politically, in the media and through public solidarity,' they said. 'Tehran neither needs nor has asked for any military assistance from Hezbollah or any other resistance factions. It's inflicting pain on Israel on its own, without any help.'
The National
31 minutes ago
- The National
US politicians predict Iran will run out of missiles ‘a lot sooner' than Israel
Iran is expected to exhaust its missile supply much sooner than Israel, members of the US Congress told The National on Wednesday, as the Middle East air war entered its sixth day. A long-running shadow war between Israel and Iran erupted into open conflict last week when Israel launched a large‑scale air and covert strike campaign – including Mossad-backed drone operations – against military and nuclear sites in Iran. The attacks killed senior commanders in the country's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and nuclear scientists, and damaged nuclear sites such as Natanz and Isfahan. Israel said its sweeping assault was necessary to prevent Tehran from moving closer to acquiring a nuclear weapon. An Iranian human rights group in Washington said at least 585 people, including 239 civilians, have been killed and more than 1,300 wounded. Iran has fired some 400 missiles and hundreds of drones in retaliatory strikes that have killed at least 24 people in Israel and wounded hundreds. Some have hit apartment buildings in central Israel, causing heavy damage, and air raid sirens have repeatedly forced Israelis to run for shelter. 'It's sort of a war of attrition with missiles for Iran and defence systems for Israel,' said Representative Jimmy Panetta, a Democrat. 'The Iranians are eating up their national resources on impotent responses. Their allies are turning away from them. Russia is not nearly as engaged as it's been in the past. They're alienating individuals in the region who should be their partners and their domestic situation gets worse every day that they drag this out.' 'I don't believe they have the capabilities to continue producing them [missiles] as quickly as they'll need to if they're going to stay in this conflict,' said Mr Panetta. His comments came during a conversation with The National in Abu Dhabi alongside fellow congressmen Brad Schneider, a Democrat, and Republican members Don Bacon and Zach Nunn. All have a military or national security background, with Mr Panetta, Mr Nunn and Mr Bacon having served in the armed forces. 'We saw larger salvos earlier. Now there are only smaller ones, which indicates they're having a hard time getting missiles to the launchers,' said Mr Bacon. 'Some speculate they're also running low, because they're firing far fewer now.' Iran's stockpile of ballistic missiles capable of hitting Israel was estimated to be around 2,000 before Israel launched Operation Rising Lion last Friday, according to Israeli intelligence. US commander General Kenneth McKenzie said in 2022 that Iran had more than 3,000 missiles capable of various ranges. The lawmakers stressed continued US support for Israel's defence and said Iran finds itself today in a "much weaker' position. Potential US involvement Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday that his country 'will not surrender', in response to remarks made by US President Donald Trump. He also warned that any direct American involvement in Israel's war would lead to 'irreparable' consequences for the US. 'The US President threatens us. With his absurd rhetoric, he demands that the Iranian people surrender to him. They should make threats against those who are afraid of being threatened,' he said in a televised speech. Mr Trump had earlier cautioned Iran that any attacks on US interest in the region would be met with 'the full strength and might' of the American military. 'We've made it clear: if there are attacks on American assets – especially the 40,000 troops we have in the region – we will respond in any way necessary to defend ourselves and our men and women in uniform,' said Mr Panetta. Trump limits Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia, a member of the Senate armed services and foreign relations committees, introduced on Monday a bill that would block Mr Trump from using the American military in a conflict against Iran without explicit authorisation from Congress. Mr Nunn has reservations about restricting presidential powers. 'I don't want to put handcuffs on the President when he is trying to be in the best possible position to defend US interests,' he said. 'We're working together with 47 other members on a compendium of maximum pressure sanctions against Iran that the President can leverage immediately with Congress's backing, not only to push Iran to de-escalate but also to apply pressure where necessary.' The members of Congress said diplomacy remains a preferred option, emphasising that there is still a window for a nuclear deal. Since April, the US and Iran have held five rounds of negotiations in Rome and Muscat. The talks aimed to contain Iran's nuclear advances and prevent a regional confrontation, with both sides signalling cautious optimism. A sixth round was scheduled to take place last Sunday. However, two days earlier, Israel launched what it called 'pre-emptive' strikes against Tehran. Mr Trump had given Iran a 60-day deadline to reach a deal or face severe repercussions. Israel's operation began at dawn on day 61. Asked about whether the war amounts to an attempt to force regime change in Tehran, the politicians responded, 'That's going to be up to the people of Iran.' Degraded proxies Although the Iranians are at their weakest point in decades, their nuclear programme is at its strongest in decades, the congressmen said. 'According to the people we've been listening to, they know Khamenei made a decision to develop a nuclear weapon. So the Israelis said, 'We can't wait any longer,'' said Mr Schneider. Last week, the UN nuclear watchdog 's 35-nation board of governors declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in almost 20 years. A central issue was Iran's failure to provide the International Atomic Energy Agency with credible explanations of how uranium traces detected at undeclared sites in Iran came to be there despite the agency having investigated the issue for years. Iran insists its programme is for civilian purposes and that it does not seek a nuclear bomb. Politicians believe that with many of its proxy groups degraded, Iran now sees nuclear weapons as its last reliable deterrent. Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza have both suffered severe losses in wars with Israel. The Houthis in Yemen have also faced setbacks: US-led strikes have halved their offensive capabilities. The regime of former Syrian president Bashar Al Assad – once a critical partner in Iran's regional axis – was toppled last year. 'Their only deterrent now would be their nukes,' said Mr Panetta. The House members said that Iran's proxies are incapable of offering meaningful defence. 'Whether or not they choose to act is going to be at their own risk – with consequences,' added Mr Panetta. Abraham Accords Mr Schneider said that the 'path to a more secure, prosperous and peaceful Middle East is through the Abraham Accords', referring to a series of normalisation agreements signed in 2020 between Israel and several Arab countries. Before the Gaza war erupted in October 2023, Saudi Arabia was in advanced talks to join the Abraham Accords and normalise relations with Israel, in a deal mediated by the US. However, the war and Israel's military campaign in Gaza halted the momentum, with Riyadh publicly emphasising the need for a credible path towards a Palestinian state before moving forward. 'We're not going to have a decision tomorrow on what happens in Israel, Gaza and the West Bank,' said Mr Nunn. 'But what we do know is there was great economic opportunity and greater security through peaceful relations. There's a mutual threat coming from Iran. And every time Iran fires off a weapon, it goes over Iraq, Jordan, Syria and others, posing a mutual risk.'
