Shayne O'Cass's race-by-race tips, analysis for Hawkesbury on Saturday

News.com.au

01-05-2025

Form expert Shayne O'Cass analyses Saturday's 10-race card at Hawkesbury, presenting his race-by-race tips and analysis.
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HERB (12) is a grandson of Snitzel with broodmare sires like Courtza's son O'Reilly, Noble Bijou, Mellay, etc, which probably accounts for his superb and very compelling numbers on Heavy tracks. Rest assured Jason Collett will get the timing just right on this backmarker so long as the track is fair. MISS HADES (5) was a real eye-catcher first-up in the Candlewick midweeker. Has Midway form, likes the trip, and goes well second-up. PIRAEUS (8) is costly but always a chance in these Midways.
Bet: HERB to win
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FEIMAZUO (9) has raced 13 times for two wins, five seconds and two thirds. Some of those placings were by narrow margins and more than some were the result of bad luck. Here is the most crucial bit; Clayton Gallagher has ridden her twice and won both times. STRAIGHT FIRE (8) is by Vancouver out of a More Than Ready mare out of a Zabeel mare. No wonder she is one for one on Heavy. Matthew Dunn is one or two off winning his 40th Highway. MOSCOW CIRCUS (3) profiles a fair bit like a fair few of his previous winners.
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DAMIEN (2) was $2.15 into $1.55 first-up at Newcastle and won accordingly. To win like that must have done his confidence and racecraft the world of good. This is much harder but he is a well-bred colt with plenty of upside (and a pedigree made to swim). AERODROME (1) was a narrow winner on debut but just so impressive. P.S. How good is Ole Kirk going? HEREWARD (4) is one those typical David Payne '3YO prospects' for next season but was forward enough to win a trial at Rosehill.
Bet: DAMIEN to win
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IRON MAN (3) has finished on the podium 13 times in 19 starts; granted only three are wins but all of them were on rain affected tracks. One of them was on Heavy 8 at Kembla the day he won by three lengths. When it is all said and done, one word comes to mind and that is 'reliable'. Warwick Farm resident WORLD ALLIANCE (4) was bred nearby at Hobartville Stud, he's got a good 'local's' record at the track and has won on Heavy. Loved the EPIC PROPORTIONS (8) trials.
Bet: IRON MAN to win, quinella 3, 4
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QUANTUM CAT (4) won three times in England (from her first and only five starts there) and has never seen a Heavy track before Saturday. That's a bit of a worry but she is a Sadler's Well's descendant and has placed three times in five runs on Soft so gets a very cautious tick. Good news is that she has won second-up and was more than passable first-up. PHILLIPSBURG (3) is on a hat-trick here. Tough and genuine, he has a lot of weight this time but he's going so well, in fact, too well to overlook.
Bet: QUANTUM CAT each-way
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There might not be a horse better bred for Heavy tracks racing on the weekend than SNITZANOVA (2) who is by Snitzel out of a Galileo mare. That means she is bred on a 3x3 cross of Snippets and Sadler's Wells. It stands to reason then why she won her only Heavy track run and that was the Sandown Guineas straight after the Spring Stakes win. MODELLA (14) is going to fly at them late here. I just hope the track plays fair. CANDLEWICK (13) is a quality filly. Is barrier 3 good or bad on the day?
Bet: SNITZANOVA to win
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CITY OF LIGHTS (12) is a half-sister to Winx who you may recall was four from four on Heavy tracks for two reasons: One, she was a Champion and two, was the presence of Al Akbar (by Success Express) as the sire of her dam, Vegas Showgirl. That's a good omen for City Of Lights on a Heavy track here. Heavy 10 Golden Slipper winner Sebring is represented by TASHI (10) here. She's a spirited little mare who runs the same honest race no matter the venue or the level of competition.
Bet: CITY OF LIGHTS each-way, box trifecta 2, 6, 10, 12
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Provided the track is fair, the rain has come at the perfect time for FLOATING (11), a true example of the 'greys in the wet' theory. He's won seven races from 33 starts, three from 10 at this trip, four from 11 on Soft while his record on Heavy is one win, two seconds and one third from five goes. He ran a lot better than a 10th of 14 reads first-up. PUNCH LANE (5) is backing up for the third Saturday in-a-row but why not, the way he won last week and the fact he is a big time muddie.
Bet: FLOATING each-way, Daily Double 1st Leg 11, 2nd Leg 2
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ASTERO (7) has won eight races which is no small feat in the Benchmark era. The Matthew Smith-trained son of Zoustar has raced here twice for a win and second The win was on a Heavy 8; the second was on a Heavy 9 behind Norwegian Bliss. His old form includes a second to Big Dance winner Rustic Steel in the Newcastle Provincial Championships Heat. Goes well fresh, trials are very good and Jason Collett is the perfect fit for him. Stacks of other chances; IN FLIGHT (12) for one.
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I may be certifiably insane to tip ROSE BLOOM (2) again. Personally, I prefer 'loyal' myself but for those of us who went down with the ship last start, I can see why you'd be giving her a wide berth. I just see the gear changes as a potential plus and more to the point, she likes it soft underfoot which is a guarantee here. I'm sticking and so is Tyler Schiller. She is $81/$20 so worth a flutter.
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