Best Super Bowl LIX prop bets, predictions by Chris "The Bear" Fallica
This will be our first group of props and bets for Sunday's Super Bowl LIX on FOX, and I figured I would keep the theme.
No, I'm not doing this to be cute. I actually do like these plays.
And who doesn't like instant gratification? Especially on the contrarian side!
Let's dive in.
Patrick Mahomes first rush o4.5 yards: -120 (SuperBook)
After being burned by the Mahomes Over rushing yards prop in the Super Bowl vs. San Francisco a few years ago as a result of kneel-downs, I decided this is the best way to play Mahomes and his scrambling ability.
The Kansas City offensive line hasn't been great lately, and with the strength of the Eagles being up front, pressure will likely result in Mahomes taking off and potentially picking up big yardage on the one type of play Vic Fangio and the Eagles defense can't really scheme for.
If interested, Mahomes first run vs. Buffalo was for four yards and his first vs. Houston went for 15.
Saquon Barkley first rush u4.5 yards: -105 (Circa)
Barkley's 60-yard TD run on the Eagles first play from scrimmage vs. Washington is fresh on everyone's mind, so I think there will be a good bit of recency bias from those who bet this prop, and a majority of the bets will be on the Over.
Yes, he also had a 16 yard gain on his first carry against Green Bay, but I'd expect the Chiefs to load up against the run and force Jalen Hurts to beat them. Barkley has been boom or bust in the postseason, with a single carry or two accounting for a healthy chunk of his yardage total.
Here's hoping he doesn't go boom on carry No. 1. In Spags we trust.
A.J. Brown first reception u11.5 yards: -110 (Circa)
Devonta Smith first reception u9.5 yards: -110 (SuperBook)
If you examine the Eagles pass game vs. Washington, it was essentially throws outside the hashes and numbers all game. There was nothing downfield in the middle. That's partly due to the success they had winning first down and could afford to give their talented WR group an opportunity to make guys miss on the outside, albeit against a poor Washington defense.
However, the Chiefs corners might be a bit tougher to expose and beat on an island.
I'll back the K.C. defense here to not allow a long gain by either guy off the bat.
Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!
recommended
Get more from National Football League Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
USA Today
an hour ago
- USA Today
When will Browns debut new Brook Park dome?
The Cleveland Browns are officially moving to the suburbs. The Ohio lawmakers not only modified the Modell Law to facilitate easy passage, but they also secured $600 million in funds for the Haslam Sports Group and the Browns to secure their new project. Given the steep time, energy, and preparation the team has been putting into making the fanbase aware of their intentions to build a dome in Brook Park, just outside of Cleveland, this move comes as no surprise. We've seen it coming from a mile away. The Haslam Sports Group wants to create a facility that can not only house the Browns but is conducive to hosting events for four seasons of the year instead of two. The hope is that the city can host a Super Bowl, NCAA tournament regional games, larger-scale concerts, and more. But when will the Browns officially move to Brook Park? The Browns have a lease with their current stadium downtown on the Lake Erie waterfront through the 2028 season. This means we will still have four more seasons of the Browns in the poorly constructed Huntington Bank Field off the coast of Lake Erie. This gives the Haslam Sports Group four years to get their dome built and prepared for a Cleveland Browns game day. So, for fans who are upset about the move to a dome and the suburbs, just like the president, you've got four more years.
USA Today
an hour ago
- USA Today
Bo Nix labeled a ‘promising prospect' ahead of 2025 NFL season
Bo Nix was always a pretty good quarterback in college with the Auburn Tigers, but he turned into a superstar when he transferred to the Oregon Ducks. In his final year in Eugene, he threw an unbelievable 45 touchdowns to just three interceptions, which cemented his place as a first-round draft pick. Although Nix was highly successful with the Ducks, his age and lack of elite traits were a deterrent for several teams and most NFL fans. However, the Denver Broncos selected him with the No. 12 pick, and he won over the respect of a lot of people in his rookie season. Despite a frustrating beginning to his career, which saw him throw four interceptions over his first two games, Nix settled in and threw 29 touchdowns to eight interceptions in the final 14 games. His stellar play earned the Broncos their first playoff berth since they won the Super Bowl nearly a decade ago. The former Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year and Heisman finalist now has sky-high expectations for his sophomore season and is viewed in a much brighter light than before. Cody Benjamin of CBS Sports ranked every starting NFL quarterback by tiers ahead of the 2025 season, and Nix was placed under the 'Promising Prospects' tier. "The seasoned Oregon product quietly approached 30 passing scores in Year 1 under Sean Payton, while excelling as a play-extender with his legs," Benjamin wrote. "The question is, can he make a leap with the Denver Broncos' pass weapons, and/or better manage the ball as Payton leans deeper into the ground game and defense?" It's a little too early to consider the second-year man a star, but Benjamin believes he is well on his way. Denver has added more playmakers for Nix to use this season, so all signs point to him building on his rookie year with the Broncos and establishing himself as one of the top passers in a loaded AFC West. Contact/Follow @Ducks_Wire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oregon Ducks news, notes, and opinions.
Fox News
an hour ago
- Fox News
Eagles' AJ Dillon explains why Caitlin Clark's teammate, Sophie Cunningham, is his 'new favorite player'
Like many sports fans these days, A.J. Dillon is locked into the WNBA, but not exactly because of Caitlin Clark. It is actually one of her teammates -- Sophie Cunningham – who has the new Philadelphia Eagles running back glued to the television. In a recent interview with Fox News Digital, Dillon said he was "like all the fans who became fans a week ago" when Cunningham came to the defense of Clark, who was fouled earlier in the game, by committing a flagrant foul of her own, which resulted in a huge scrum on the court and ejections. Dillon said he was discussing the matter on his podcast with his brother-in-law and said after recording that he would buy Cunningham's jersey. Reports surfaced that Cunningham's jersey was out of stock, and while those were never confirmed, Dillon posted his purchase on social media. Dillon said she earned a newfound respect for Cunningham, who he dubbed his "new favorite player," for protecting her team's best player. "Caitlin Clark's obviously the best player on that team, arguably the best player in the WNBA, if not the best. You got your star player, they're drawing a little bit, but think about it like the quarterback. That's our quarterback, we're gonna make sure she's protected. If somebody pushes Jalen Hurts, everybody's gonna be in there. I respected that, being there for the team." Dillon told Fox News Digital. Dillon added that he plans on debuting the jersey on the 4th of July on a boat. "I'm a fan, I like that approach to the game, and just being a tough player for the team, not letting anybody push your teammates around, I like that." The whole ordeal occurred when Connecticut Sun guard Jacy Sheldon poked Clark in the eye last week. She was also pushed to the floor by Marina Mabrey. Cunningham wrapped up Sheldon under the basket on a hard foul in the fourth quarter, and the two were ejected. "During that, it was just part of the game. I think the refs had a lot to do with that. It was a build-up for a couple years now of them just not protecting the star player of the WNBA," Cunningham told reporters days after the team lost to the Golden State Valkyries. "At the end of the day, I'm going to protect my teammates. That's what I do." Follow Fox News Digital's sports coverage on X, and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.
