The Israel-Iran conflict is splitting Trump's MAGA movement in two

The Journal

3 hours ago

Ted Cruz on Iran. Full interview tomorrow.
pic.twitter.com/hJNwAHAnxZ
— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson)
June 18, 2025
AS WAR CLOUDS gather over the Middle East and Donald Trump edges closer to authorising military strikes, an objector has emerged from inside his own ranks.
Meet the lead dissenting voice: Tucker Carlson.
You may have come across footage of a tense exchange this week between two of Trump's most loyal allies – Republican Senator Ted Cruz and right-wing broadcaster Tucker Carlson – clashing over the situation in Israel and Iran.
In a fiery interview, Carlson grilled Cruz on why the United States, and Trump in particular, are flirting with the idea of striking Iran in support of Israel.
Cruz defended the president, citing biblical obligation and national security threats.
Iran, he argued, is 'trying to murder Donald Trump'.
Carlson, on the other hand, rejected both the religious framing and the geopolitical justification, labelling the strikes a mistake and warning that Trump's foreign policy credibility hangs in the balance.
The exchange revealed a widening schism within the MAGA movement — between those who support Trump's 'America First' pledge to end 'forever wars', and those who see Iran as a pressing threat to US and Israeli security that must be addressed militarily.
MAGA civil war?
Trump's supporters are no longer unified on foreign policy.
At its core, the MAGA divide is over what 'America First' actually means. For some, it's about rejecting foreign entanglements and endless wars.
For others, it includes projecting strength abroad and standing by allies like Israel, especially against common enemies like Iran.
Trump, who once decried the invasion of Iraq as 'the worst decision ever made,' now
flirts with another conflict in the region
.
'I may do it, I may not do it,' he said cryptically when asked whether the US would join Israeli efforts to hit Iranian nuclear sites.
A destroyed building in Tehran, Iran.
Alamy Stock Photo
Alamy Stock Photo
Trump's comments shook his base, exposing a growing divide.
On one side are traditional conservatives like Senators Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell, who believe the US must act to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.
'President Trump understands the threat the ayatollah presents to us, not just Israel,' Graham said, voicing confidence that Trump would ultimately side with Israeli forces.
On the other side are populist nationalists like Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, and Marjorie Taylor Greene, who see any military action as a betrayal of Trump's promise to avoid foreign wars.
'Anyone slobbering for the US to become fully involved in the Israel-Iran war is not America First/MAGA,' Greene wrote on X.
'We are sick and tired of foreign wars.'
Even Trump's own vice-president, JD Vance, long sceptical of foreign intervention, has attempted to bridge the gap, insisting that Trump 'is only interested in using the American military to accomplish the American people's goals.'
But the balancing act is proving more difficult as rhetoric escalates and the conflict enters its second week.
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Online MAGA resistance
The Trump backlash hasn't been limited to Capitol Hill. Trump's broad online coalition is now fractured, with many influencers who strongly supported the president taking sharply different stances.
Tucker Carlson's public opposition drew a rebuke from Trump, who called him 'kooky'.
That, in turn, sparked defence from various pro-Trump voices.
Right wing content creator Candace Owens called the moment 'unbelievable', arguing that Trump had 'completely fractured his base.'
Conspiracy theorist Alex Jones warned that backing war against Iran was 'the stuff nightmares are made of.'
Still, some in the MAGA media ecosystem have remained firmly pro-Trump.
Far-right influencer Charlie Kirk declared his 'full and complete trust' in Trump's judgement, while activist Laura Loomer reminded followers that 'America First is whatever President Trump says it is.'
Others, like Jack Posobiec, have tried to hold the movement together, warning that 'regime change war would break up the MAGA coalition', which he suggested the neoconservatives are counting on.
Voters say no to foreign wars
US polling reflects the internal disunity.
A YouGov/Economist survey found 60% of Americans (including a majority of Trump supporters) oppose US military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict.
In an Echelon Insights poll, 45% of voters said they supported Israel's strikes on Iran, while 35%were opposed.
Asked what role the US should play, only 8% said that they would favour joining Israel in military attacks, while 41% said they want America to stay completely out.
The message is clear: Trump's voters are worried about another foreign war.
Even Trump's own intelligence chief, Tulsi Gabbard, has voiced caution. In recent congressional testimony, she acknowledged that Iran's uranium enrichment was at a record high, but said there was no evidence they were building a nuclear weapon.
She later warned that the 'political elite' was 'carelessly fomenting fear' that risked global catastrophe, a stance which reportedly infuriated Trump.
Some Republicans such as Congressman Thomas Massie have even joined with Democrats to try to block any unauthorised military action.
'This is not our war,' Massie posted. 'Congress must decide such matters.'
What happens next?
For now, the future of US involvement remains uncertain.
Trump has insisted that Iran 'cannot have a nuclear weapon,' while hinting at further escalation, posting ominously that the US knows 'exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding.'
Whether Trump ultimately strikes or holds back, the political damage may already be done.
The Iran-Israel conflict has laid bare ideological tensions in the MAGA movement that have simmered beneath the surface for years.
In the words of Carlson: 'What happens next will define Donald Trump's presidency.'
Perhaps it will reshape his movement altogether.
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