Pakistan's India war

The Hindu

a day ago

As India reflects on the outcome of the brief military conflict with Pakistan in early May, it may be worthwhile to ponder over the current reality that even as India's cultural diversity and sweep of history may be unparalleled in a civilisational context, it remains prone to attacks from countries in its vicinity and beyond. An incorrigible Pakistan is continually finding ways and means every few years to provoke a conflict, and despite being worsted in every one of these conflicts and wars, remains undeterred, seeking to 'bleed India by a thousand cuts'.
The very existence of a secular democratic India appears to be anathema to Pakistan. As India progresses towards becoming a global power (it is already the fourth largest economy in the world), Pakistan is descending into near anarchy. Yet this neighbour of ours, dominated by a military mindset, is contriving to find ways and means of undermining India's progress. Peace for India, hence, depends on who rules Pakistan, which almost invariably is the military. There are no easy solutions to this problem, and India needs to prepare for war at all times.
The Pakistan of today
Today, it is fashionable to talk of the disintegration of the world order. The deafening silence of the world to the 'genocide' taking place in Gaza, with innocent civilians being killed at an alarming rate, contrasts with the din and noise — and the numerous efforts at peace — being made to end the Ukraine conflict. This dichotomy of approach stems from a grim truth or reality, viz., that the world has different standards when it comes to the killing of Asians and Europeans. If there is any further evidence needed to demonstrate that the international order is crumbling and that 'might is again becoming right', one has only to look at the recent conflict provoked by Pakistan, which the West scrambled to end once they found Pakistan was the loser.
A crucial 'sub-text' to how bigger nations intervene to end a conflict between smaller entities is also now becoming available. For instance, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has bartered his critical mineral resources to gain U.S. support in the war against Russia. In the Pakistan context, it is now being surmised that U.S. interest in claiming to having brought peace between Pakistan and India (notwithstanding denial by the latter) stems from U.S. interest in Pakistan's store of critical minerals, such as lithium, copper and rare earths. Also, intrinsic to this is the fact that the military in Pakistan, which is and has been, the critical player in the regional sweepstakes, is unlikely to forget the U.S. President's 'gesture' even if there is little substance to his claims.
Peace in the subcontinent is the major casualty today, and not solely because of the short (recent) India-Pakistan conflict. India, and the region itself today, confronts a military Pakistan which has shed the cloak of democracy and is today a virtual military dictatorship. It has a titular civilian Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, who is standing in for his brother (Nawaz Sheriff), who is legally constrained from holding an electoral office.
More important, the government is 'in hock' to the army, and the latter after having denied Imran Khan an opportunity to contest elections, is now showing its true colours. A few weeks ago, Pakistan's current Chief of Army Staff, Gen., now Field Marshal, Asim Munir proclaimed that Pakistan is not a democracy, but a religious entity. He went on to say that in the history of humanity, there had been only two states based on the 'Kalima'. The first was the Riyasat-e-medina. The second, 1,300 years later, was Pakistan. He added that 'Pakistan is different from Hindus in every possible aspect of life — religion, custom, tradition, thoughts and ambitions' and that 'Kashmir was the jugular vein'. The rest is history — a future in which further conflicts should be anticipated.
What to expect next
It might, hence, be useful to surmise what one might expect from the recent India-Pakistan conflict. It is certain that there will be a recrudescence of religious nationalism, not only in Pakistan, but across parts of South and West Asia. Next, is the impact of the technological revolution — limited though the conflict might have been. The conflict has demonstrated the criticality of ensuring 'escalation dominance' in the shortest possible time. Furthermore, one should view the recent conflict as a kind of 'proxy conflict' between hi-tech military suppliers on either side. Each has been more anxious than the other to know how their equipment performed — the Rafale versus China's J-10C, for instance — hoping to find better answers to their respective electronic signatures during future operations.
Also, India and Pakistan have demonstrated their ability to flood the heavens with inexpensive expendable reconnaissance and strike vehicles. Above all, there is a realisation that there is more to drones' warfare than was known till date.
Reams have been written about Pakistan's use of Turkish Songer drones and China's J-10C during the recent conflict. India is said to have responded by using Kamikaze drones and the like. What is evident from all this is that air defence today involves several multi-layered air defence systems. Unproven, however, is whether Pakistan could integrate a Pakistani ground radar illuminating an Indian target enabling a Chinese J-10C fighter to launch its missile to hit its target as both China and Pakistan propaganda make out. The latter is solely in the realm of speculation — essentially by Pakistan and China — though what comes out loud and clear is the versatility of airborne early warning systems and the kind of system integration in place. All this has brought a new dimension to airborne warfare. Today's 'noise' is, hence, all about air-to-air engagement, with speculation being rife as to whether Chinese-origin weapon and air defence mechanisms have the measure of India's Rafale fighters and Western equipment. To equipment manufacturers, it is the effectiveness of the 'kill chain' that matters, or is more important, than the capabilities of specific fighters.
What is, however, proven is that the Aakash Quick Reaction Surface-to-Air Missile alongside Russia's S-400 and the Barak (jointly developed with Israel) provided India with more than adequate cover. India possibly did not need to employ or demonstrate its ultimate weapon, the Brahmos (jointly developed with Russia). Pakistan clearly has no answer to it. Both sides did, however, show an improved capability for electronic counter-counter measures to penetrate enemy jamming and evasion tactics.
Technological warfare of the future
The conflict, however, demonstrated in no uncertain terms that future wars will essentially be technological in nature. Technological dominance and the speed with which escalation takes place will dictate the course of future wars. Currently, India has an edge over Pakistan as far as escalation dominance is concerned, but this need not always be the case. It is also important to remember that in a fragmented, multipolar, geopolitical environment, there will be little scope or time for imposing restraint on a party, once a major conflict begins. Arms control agreements also may have little relevance in future wars. Worse, it is already the best known secret that new nuclear warheads and cruise missiles are being designed and kept in readiness for use. The realisation needs to dawn that the nuclear threshold is narrowing rapidly.
It is germane to mention here that while India's position on land, sea, and air is more than adequate to deal with a Pakistan, the situation could alter in the event of a two-front war involving both China and Pakistan. In such a situation, India will need to balance the combined capabilities of Pakistan and China and this will throw up some neglected aspects such as India's lack of a dedicated satellite system and satellite-based surveillance network. It bears repetition that modern warfare increasingly depends on space-based assets to act as an early warning system and for a variety of tasks, apart from tracking and communication. This lacuna will need to be overcome in real time before the next outbreak of a major conflict, whether with Pakistan, China, or any other country, occurs. To reiterate, India cannot afford to overlook its inadequacies as far as space-based capabilities are concerned. Space is the new domain of warfare, and India must be fully prepared for this eventuality.
M.K. Narayanan, former Director, Intelligence Bureau; former National Security Adviser; and former Governor of West Bengal