Britain should not join America's foolhardy war against the Houthis
British RAF fighters have joined the American campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, striking targets which, the Ministry of Defence and the Defence Secretary are eager to tell us, were picked through an extensive intelligence effort; they were struck at night and with every intention to minimise civilian harm. What is less clear at this stage is why, and what the desired result of military action in Yemen is.
The Houthis are a menace. They are pirates, attacking targets willy-nilly in the Red Sea. They have cost the world many hundreds of billions in additional barriers to shipping and trade. They field child soldiers who are stolen from their parents by conscription. Their ideology is that of international terrorism. They are an outgrowth of the sectarian project of the Iranian Islamic Revolution, committed to the destruction of the revolution's enemies – and that includes Britain.
The United States has launched an extensive campaign against the Houthis since Donald Trump took office. Operation Rough Rider more than picked up where a series of strikes carried out by America and Britain against Houthi targets under Joe Biden left off.
So, Britain has engaged the Houthis before, and the wheels did not come off. But why, then, do I believe it's a mistake to strike these targets? Recent history is my guide.
Other people have fought in Yemen over the last sixty years and they did not tend to win. Egypt fought a war in Yemen with a strong air force component and it turned into their Vietnam. Saudi Arabia attempted to support the UN-recognised government in Yemen against the Houthis and it resulted in a humanitarian catastrophe. The Saudi oil economy has been deluged by Iranian and Houthi missiles and drones ever since.
But we and the Americans are not Saudi Arabia. We are not Egypt. Might we be able to beat the Houthis in a way which is real and sustainable? In theory, maybe. But not in practice. Think, if you will, about the recent conflicts to which Britain and the United States have been party.
We fight a lot of air wars because it is what we are good at. But do those air wars result in permanent victories? The American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were largely air wars after 2014. In Iraq, an air war halted the advance of the Islamic State. But it did not defeat it. Sectarian fighters working on America's behalf did that.
And does the modern Middle East seem stable and at peace as a result of that decision? In Afghanistan, Trump's taking office in his first term resulted in a great expansion of the air war against the Taliban and the Islamic State. One of his local commanders even licensed the use of the MOAB (Mother of All Bombs) against ISIS targets.
But Trump got frustrated eventually and cut a deal which permitted the Taliban to win the war. Now Afghanistan is a Taliban emirate, with a large and growing ISIS insurgency, which carries out spectacular attacks in Russia and Iran – and will target Europe, too.
Lobbing a few missiles is easy, almost cathartic. But what long-term plan lies behind it? America gets bored and loses all of these wars eventually. Why must Britain consent to being taken along for another ride?
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