How Ukraine's drone strikes shake Putin's war plans

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Ukraine's audacious drone strike targeting Russian airbases, in an operation dubbed Spider Web, has far-reaching implications for the ongoing war. Experts note that even if Kyiv's claims of destroying 41 aircraft aren't completely true, the attack will have a psychological impact on the troops, favouring the Volodymyr Zelenskyy-led nation read more
A burning truck that apparently was used to launch Ukrainian drones deep into the heart of Russia as part of Operation Spider Web. AP
The day of June 1 will be remembered in history; it will be the day that the rules of modern war were rewritten, courtesy of Ukraine. On Sunday, after meticulous planning of 18 months, Kyiv launched Operation Spider Web — a series of coordinated drone strikes, hitting airfields from eastern Siberia to Russia's western border, damaging dozens of planes with Ukraine estimating the cost of damage being $7 billion.
The daring and audacious attack , which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskky said 'had an absolutely brilliant outcome' dubbed 'Russia's Pearl Harbor' demonstrates Ukraine's capability to hit high-value targets anywhere in Russia, dealing a humiliating blow to the Kremlin and inflicting significant losses to Moscow's war machine.
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The question now everyone is asking — how will this affect the ongoing war?
How damaging was Ukraine's Operation Spider Web
On Sunday, Ukraine, a day before it was to sit down for talks with Russia in Turkey, launched a whopping 117 drones, which had been smuggled into Russia, stored in special compartments aboard freight trucks, driven to at least four separate locations, thousands of miles apart, and launched remotely towards nearby airbases.
These drones attacked airfields in five regions stretching across five time zones. According to Ukraine, 41 Russian aircraft were hit at four air bases stretching from the Finnish border to Siberia. One targeted base, in the Irkutsk region, lies more than 2,600 miles from the front lines, making it the farthest target Ukraine has hit during the conflict.
The Zelenskyy-led nation has claimed that the coordinated drone strikes took down 41 aircraft used to 'bomb Ukrainian cities', citing the Tu-95 and Tu-22 strategic bombers and the A-50 radar detection and command aircraft. Ukrainian security services said they destroyed 34 per cent of Russian strategic bombers carrying cruise missiles, claiming to have inflicted damages amounting to $7 billion.
A Ukrainian drone striking Russian planes deep in Russia's territory. AP
As one Ukrainian military blogger Oleksandr Kovalenko noted on his Telegram channel that the 'extent of the damage is such that the Russian military-industrial complex, in its current state, is unlikely to be able to restore them in the near future'. He further added that the loss of the Tu-95, Tu-22, and Tu-160 planes will be keenly felt by Moscow.
While Ukraine has claimed significant damage, the true extent of the operation will only be revealed in the months to come. Opposing claims have already emerged with some Russian military bloggers pegging the damage to be far lesser than what the opposite side claims. For instance, influential Russian military blogger, Rybar, put the number of damaged Russian aircraft at 13, including up to 12 strategic bombers.
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However, even if Kyiv says is partially true, then the economics of the war have shifted.
Ukraine's drone strikes hurt Russia's pride
While Russia and Ukraine may dispute over the extent of the damage, one can't argue that the strikes have hit Moscow psychologically. Many war experts note that the strikes are a significant operational and psychological victory for Ukraine. As Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy head of the Ukrainian military's general staff, told Al Jazeera, 'This is a slap on the face for Russia, for FSB, for Putin.'
Even Sven Biscop, a director at the Egmont Institute, a think tank in Brussels, notes that the drone strikes serves as a humiliation to Putin. 'At a time when Putin seems to think that he is winning on the battlefield, this demonstrates that his forces are in fact very vulnerable,' he told NBC News. 'This may not change the course of the war, but it does mean that every gain Russia makes will be at high cost.'
A satellite image shows damage to aircraft at an airfield in Irkutsk, following Ukrainian drones attack targeting Russian military airfields, in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict, in Stepnoy, Irkutsk region, Russia. Reuters
Others also pointed out that the attack by Ukraine clearly demonstrates just how vulnerable Russia is. The country's economy is largely dependent on a vast network of oil and gas wells pipelines, pumping stations, refineries, storage depots and shipping terminals. And now, Kyiv has shown that they have the weaponry and the know-how on how to destroy all of it.
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Impact of strikes on negotiations
Ukraine is hoping as Zelenskyy mentioned that the drone strikes will expose Russia's vulnerability and 'that is what will push it toward diplomacy.'
Many note that the attack puts Kyiv in a position of power at the negotiating table. In fact, Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Penta think tank, told Al Jazeera, 'Emotionally, psychologically and politically, the operation strengthens the positions of Ukrainian negotiators.'
Fesenko added that Operation Spider Web strongly gives out one message — Ukraine won't give up, won't capitulate.
The strikes are also a clear message to the West, especially the US — Kyiv doesn't trust the US. This was clearly evident when Washington said on Monday that the White House wasn't given any heads-up on the attack.
Servicemen from the mobile air defence unit of the 115th Separate Mechanised Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces check a combat application for presence of Russian drones in Kharkiv. Reuters
George Beebe, a former director of Russia analysis at the CIA, made an interesting observation in an interview with Foreign Policy. He noted that Ukraine was pushing the US to a situation where they are forced to get tougher with Russians. He said, 'In fact, after this operation, Zelenskyy made a public statement saying that it is urgently important that the US toughen sanctions on Russia—that's the only way that Russia will 'come to the negotiating table. So, I think the [Ukrainians'] target audience for this operation was here in Washington, not in Russia.'
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But some analysts believe that though the strikes were significant, they would hardly change Putin's calculation of the war. There is no indication as of now that the attack has changed the Kremlin's belief that it holds an advantage over Ukraine.
It's now a waiting game to see what happens next but most agree that one could expect a great deal of sound and fury from Moscow. In fact, many pro-Russia commentators have already called for Putin to launch nuclear attacks on Ukraine. As one Russian military blogger, Roman Alekhin, said on Telegram, 'We hope that the response will be the same as the US response to the attack on Pearl Harbor, or even tougher.'
With inputs from agencies