Himalayan river basins face escalating landslide threats, Jhelum most vulnerable, warns study

Time of India

20-05-2025

Dehradun: A comprehensive new study, led by researchers from Aligarh Muslim University (AMU), Jamia Millia Islamia, and King Saud University, reveals that vast areas of the
Himalayan river basins
are under serious threat from landslides, posing grave risks to both lives and livelihoods.
The study identified the
Jhelum river basin
as the most vulnerable, with nearly 900,000 hectares of agricultural land and over 37,000 hectares of built-up areas at risk. The Kali and Ganga river basins were also found to be high-risk zones, with more than 287,000 hectares and 140,000 hectares of agricultural land exposed to potential landslides respectively.
Published in the journal 'All Earth', the research was conducted using advanced machine learning techniques combined with geospatial data to map highly vulnerable zones across the region.
Researchers used Support Vector Machine (SVM) models to predict landslide susceptibility based on a range of natural variables, including terrain, rainfall, vegetation cover, and forest fire activity.
Led by AMU's Zainab Khan, the team also factored in population density, land use, and terrain features for a comprehensive risk assessment. "Policymakers now have a map of risk. What they need next is a roadmap of response," said Khan.
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"This study not only identifies where the risks are greatest, but also why. That makes it a vital tool for proactive governance." In the Jhelum basin alone, over 2.3 million people are living in areas classified as "high" or "very high" risk.
Similar patterns were observed across the Indus, Yamuna, and Ganga basins, highlighting the widespread nature of the threat, as per the study.
Using a method called SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), the study identified runoff, forest fires, the number of nearby streams, and stream power index, which is a measure of the erosive power of flowing water, as the biggest contributors to landslide risk.
These were followed by factors like steep slopes, how wet the ground tends to stay, and vegetation health and density.
While factors like elevation and geology played a relatively minor role, the study emphasised the significant impact of forest fires on slope stability. Fires not only destroy the vegetation that binds the soil but also create a water-repellent layer that increases runoff, accelerating erosion and slope failure.
The impact of landslides on infrastructure and agriculture are catastrophic as it can block roads, damage crops, and bury homes, hampering both local economies and emergency response efforts. In densely populated valleys and foothill zones, even moderate-risk areas can suffer devastating losses due to the concentration of people and assets. For instance, the Yamuna river basin has over 100,000 hectares of vulnerable agricultural land and more than 10,000 hectares of urban settlements at risk.
The Sutlej and Giri basins also face high landslide risk, with thousands of hectares of land and tens of thousands of residents exposed to potential danger.
The researchers recommend targeted mitigation measures, including afforestation, slope stabilisation, and restrictions on construction in high-risk areas. They stress that the integration of early warning systems and community-based disaster preparedness is critical to reducing the toll of landslides in the future.