NASCAR Cup Series at Nashville odds, predictions: Ross Chastain's rise, ‘Double' controversy and more

New York Times

2 days ago

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to 'Music City' for the Cracker Barrel 400 at Nashville Superspeedway on Sunday night. As always, we're interviewing our motorsports experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, about some of the biggest controversies after Memorial Day weekend's events, and what to expect from this week's race.
Take it away, guys!
You wrote about NASCAR's 'Double' problem: Because of a rule tweak that means a driver can't miss the start of a race without forfeiting playoff points (unless for injury), completing both the Indy 500 and the Coca-Cola 600 is too logistically complicated. It reminds me of horse racing's Triple Crown problem, that the Preakness is too soon after the Kentucky Derby for some horses to run both, and yet officials don't seem willing to budge on the calendar. Is there an argument here, like with the Triple Crown, that it should be this difficult? That that's the whole point?
Jeff: NASCAR doesn't want to take a backseat to any other event or racing series, which is why this is happening. Officials feel full-time NASCAR drivers should prioritize their events, even if it's the Indy 500. I personally believe that is short-sighted and missing the big picture. IndyCar is zero threat to NASCAR right now (even the Truck Series beats some IndyCar races in viewership), and the Indy 500 is a singular, standalone event that doesn't even run head-to-head with a NASCAR race. Why not capitalize on the large audience of casual Indy 500 viewers (more than 7 million people tuned in) and get a free advertisement for your NASCAR race later that night? If the driver doing the Double is late, that's their fault because they miss the chance of getting playoff points or a win. But to strip all of their playoff points for the entire season essentially makes it so that no contending NASCAR driver will even try the Double anytime soon, so it's a self-defeating decision that actually makes the 600 less relevant than if it were connected to a lead-in from Indy.
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Jordan: While Jeff's argument makes sense to a point, how much fanfare NASCAR can gain from running the Double is unquantified. The reality is that the uptick is likely not significant enough for the league to be OK with a superstar driver missing one of its races, especially a crown jewel. Allowing a driver to skip a NASCAR race to compete elsewhere is a slippery slope that potentially creates a bigger issue down the road, and it is also a disservice to your loyal fan base, who paid good money to watch the driver compete at the NASCAR event that week. You open the door to allow drivers to miss a race(s), and you're not too far away from being professional golf or tennis, where the star players only turn out a handful of times each year, not every week.
Last week, Ross Chastain's win marked the first of the season for a car not affiliated with the 'Big Three' (Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske). How many more wins like that do you think we'll see? What drivers outside of the Big Three have the best shot at the playoffs?
Jeff: I can talk myself into believing there could be all sorts of different organizations in victory lane. We're certainly due a win from Tyler Reddick at some point, so there's one from 23XI Racing. It feels like Spire Motorsports is getting closer to breaking through soon, too. And that's not to mention the possibility of RFK Racing or Richard Childress Racing putting a great day together. Oh, and don't forget that Shane van Gisbergen (Trackhouse) or AJ Allmendinger (Kaulig) could win on a road course (with several approaching soon). In about six weeks from now, we'll have a much better sense of who can make the playoffs based on points and who needs a win, but it's still too soon to tell.
Jordan: There are a good number of teams beyond the 'Big Three' that could win any given week. This is especially true as NASCAR heads into a seven-race stretch that includes an assortment of wild-card tracks with three races on road courses and a drafting oval. And then there is 23XI Racing, where both Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace have been very good at times, but are still not yet to the level you expect out of 23XI, and each feels like they're due to break out.
We're about halfway through the regular season (crazy!?). Who is trending up and who is trending down?
Jeff: Chastain has certainly been impressive, moving from 14th to eighth in points (and winning the 600) during the last seven races — a period in which he has not finished outside the top 20. It also seems like Chase Briscoe is trending in the right direction with three top-fives in the last five races. As for the downward trend, Bubba Wallace has now crashed out of three straight races and has only one top-15 finish in the last six races. Wallace has tumbled from seventh in points to 12th during that time.
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Jordan: When looking at who is trending upwards, Chastain is the name that immediately pops up. Even though Trackhouse does not consistently have the same level of speed in its cars as the 'Big Three,' Chastain is still producing impressive results. He is effectively putting that team on his shoulders and making them better. And when you look at how the schedule sets up over the next few weeks, his winning again feels like a distinct possibility. On the other end of the spectrum is Alex Bowman, whose season has been a bit of a roller coaster and as of late, the results have been hard to come by. In the past seven races, Bowman has five finishes of 27th or worse.
Who is your favorite to win at Nashville?
Jeff: I'm going to go with Chastain to stay on a roll. He finished second at Texas and then won Charlotte. Nashville, while concrete, isn't too dissimilar to what creates speed there. Chastain already knows how to get around Nashville quite well — he finished second, fifth and first there before crashing out last year (in overtime after leading 45 laps, by the way). Also, there's value there because Chastain only has the eighth-best odds (he's +1200).
Jordan: William Byron is overdue in a big way to get his second win of the season. And the intermediate Nashville track is a great place for him to do just that, as this style track is the strong suit for the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports team. Expect Byron to again lead a lot of laps, just like last week at Charlotte, but this time he closes it out to add another win to his resume.
Who is a long shot you like?
Jeff: Sometimes weird narratives happen in NASCAR, and there could be a fittingly strange one this week. Austin Cindric is +5000 at Nashville, where his spin with two laps to go last year changed the course of an entire season. If you recall, that Cindric spin is what allowed teammate Joey Logano to survive a five-overtime race and win his way into the playoffs; without that victory, he would have missed the playoffs and not won the championship. Cindric is obviously going through a tough time after seeing his dad fired from Team Penske, so I can see all of these storylines coming together in a weird NASCAR way. (But mostly, I just think it's absurd to have a Penske car at +5000, so that's really why I picked him here.)
Jordan: Why not Carson Hocevar? The second-year driver has had plenty of speed this year, but various factors have prevented him from getting the corresponding finish to match that speed. Last week, an engine failure sidelined him as he was running third. If Spire Motorsports can again bring a fast car and Hocevar and the team can put together a complete race, there is no reason why Nashville couldn't be the site of his first career win.
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(Photo of Ross Chastain: Logan Riely / Getty Images)