Weekend NHL rankings: An unpredictable trade deadline shakes up the Top 5

New York Times

10-03-2025

Well, that was something.
The annual trade deadline didn't deliver huge numbers as far as the actual volume of trades, but the ones that did happen were significant, with more big names moving than just about any year in recent memory. A lot has changed since we last did this one week ago, and the rankings will reflect that.
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We'll get to those in a minute. But first, let's close the book on a fascinating week with a few final deadline thoughts.
5. The Eastern bubble may have already popped — Even a few weeks ago, you figured that the Eastern Conference wild-card race would be where the action was, as teams scrambled for any advantage in a jam-packed race. But not only did the bubble teams in both conferences mostly sit out the big moves, almost exclusively letting the actual Cup contenders land the big names, some teams actively waved the white flag.
The Bruins certainly did. The Islanders and Flyers mostly did, too. Meanwhile, the Red Wings basically did nothing, the Habs stood pat and the Rangers are at best trying to straddle the line between contender and seller.
It all adds up to great news for the Senators, who made a fun hockey trade that I think they won before notching a comeback win. They now have what looks like a clear path to their first postseason in years. Same for the Blue Jackets, who did some light adding and then smoked the Rangers.
The West wasn't much better, with the four teams still in the running for one wild-card basically all standing pat (more on that in a bit). At least they didn't sell, but it sure feels like they all realize that whoever gets the spot is going to get swept in the first round anyway.
4. The first-round picks were flying — Prices were high in general in what was clearly a seller's market. But even so, the sheer volume of firsts being moved was surprising. I'd have more to say on that, but James covers it all here.
3. The goalies basically stayed put — With apologies to Petr Mrazek and Vitek Vanecek, who moved in the aftermath of Spencer Knight being involved in the Seth Jones trade, the goalies were basically left out of the impact moves. No John Gibson trade, no Jordan Binnington, and a Karel Vejmelka extension that took him off of a market he may have never been on. None of this is all that surprising; big midseason goalie trades aren't unheard of, but they're relatively rare. But it does leave some teams open to some serious second-guessing, with the Oilers on top of the list.
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2. It was a humbling week for wingers — Hockey fans know wingers are generally the least valuable position, but the point was really driven home by the prices paid last week. The asking price for anyone who could line up down the middle seemed to start with a second-rounder, with gusts up to a first if the guy also knew how to find his own zone. Blueliners were pricey, as always. Meanwhile, future Hall of Famer Brad Marchand couldn't even fetch an unconditional first, while Rickard Rakell and Brock Boeser didn't move at all.
(Side note: I've seen a few takes that were critical of Canucks GM Patrik Allvin for this dismissive soundbite about the quality of offers he received for Boeser. I don't see it that way. To me, that's a GM who knows he's going to be shredded for not moving a guy being honest about the offers just not being there. He's not going out of his way to bury a player, he's just describing reality. You can absolutely rip Allvin for how he handled the deadline, especially if Boeser now walks for nothing. But that quote didn't bother me.)
Even the biggest name to move, winger Mikko Rantanen, did so only after having three teams refuse to meet his reported asking price and in a trade that feels like a short-term loss for the Hurricanes. Might want to learn to take a faceoff, Mikko, because the league's GMs have made it clear where they think the value is.
1. The trend toward term continues — For years, the deadline has been all about rentals, with the top targets almost exclusively pending UFAs on expiring deals. That started to change a few years ago, led by the Lightning paying up for cheaper deals with term on guys like Brandon Hagel, Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman. This year, we saw the Leafs add two veterans with term, the Avs get two playoff runs' worth of Charlie Coyle, and the Oilers add Jake Walman with a full year left. The Panthers weren't scared off by the five years left for Seth Jones. And of course, Rantanen's deal was contingent on a max-length extension. We still saw traditional rentals, like Brock Nelson and Marchand. But that's no longer the only way to do business this time of year.
On to the rankings, where as you'd expect, we're getting a deadline shakeup in the top five …
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
If you missed it, we handed out letter grades to every team for their deadline work.
5. Winnipeg Jets (44-17-4, +76 true goals differential*) — They've held down top spot for the last month, but I came very close to dropping them off the list completely to make room for the Avalanche. That would probably have been an overreaction, but this was certainly not a great deadline for the Jets, who saw the two biggest obstacles on their path out of the Central get significantly better. Meanwhile, Murat pretty much nails the vibe in Winnipeg: a missed opportunity. The priority now is to hold on to first in the Central and hope that means Winnipeg doesn't have to go through both Colorado and Dallas.
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4. Edmonton Oilers (37-22-4, +20) — I'm still higher on them than the Friday boys, but they're not making it easy in a week in which their own coach called them fragile. Seeing them beat Dallas on Saturday certainly helps, and at least they added at the deadline, if only a little. Meanwhile, the Kings didn't seem to realize there was a deadline, while the Golden Knights faked us all out but then stood pat. I'll give the Oilers another week, but I'm getting nervous.
3. Washington Capitals (42-14-8, +67) — They settled for tinkering instead of taking a big swing, which was what most were expecting. The bigger news may be that the Hurricanes got worse, while the Devils lost Jack Hughes for the season. In other words, the Caps didn't improve much, but their odds to emerge from the Metro probably did.
2. Florida Panthers (40-21-3, +37) — They continue their mission to almost single-handedly disprove the whole 'you can't build through trades' trope that timid GMs love so much. Jones was an intriguing add, one with plenty of points in both the risk and reward columns. Marchand? That's just flat-out Team Chaos stuff.
Tkachuk-Marchand-Bennett would be the most scummy dirtbag line of all time, and I mean that as a compliment. https://t.co/Nfeh2McPrW
— Down Goes Brown (@DownGoesBrown) March 7, 2025
As is often the case, there was a little bit of heartlessness involved, as the arrival of Jones seems to all but ensure Aaron Ekblad won't be re-signed. But the Panthers were very close to already being the best in the East, and nobody in the conference came close to improving as much as they did over the last week.
1. Dallas Stars (42-20-2, +55) — No huge surprise here, as a team that was already near the top of most lists landed the biggest impact player to be moved at the deadline in years. There are two question marks here: whether Miro Heiskanen and Tyler Seguin can get back to full health by the playoffs, and whether the Stars can avoid running into the Avalanche in Round 1. But for now, this is the best team in the league.
*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.
Not ranked: Toronto Maple Leafs — They traded away two first-round picks and two of their top prospects and lost ground in the Atlantic.
I'm not sure there's any other way to look at it. Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo are both good players who should fit in nicely, and both are signed for at least one more year on deals that (thanks to retention) will provide strong value. The two firsts should be late, and the two prospects were good but far from blue chips. And of course, people like me would have absolutely ripped Brad Treliving if he'd stood pat. With Auston Matthews basically calling for reinforcements and the possibility of some big names leaving in the summer, they did what they had to do.
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Will it be enough? It sure doesn't feel like it, with the Panthers and Lightning both adding big names, and now the pipeline of future assets is all but drained. Their best (and maybe only) path out of the Atlantic now involves finishing first and letting the two Florida teams tear each other apart in Round 1 while the Leafs lose to Ottawa get an easy wild-card warmup. That's plausible, but far less likely after the last few days, especially with regulation losses in both Vegas and Colorado.
The bigger story in Toronto might be the trade that didn't happen, with reports that Treliving was in on trading for and extending Rantanen before the Hurricanes decided to send him to Dallas instead. That would have been a jaw-dropping move for a team already loaded with top-end forwards, and it makes the pivot to an apparent Plan B of two defense-first options all the more interesting.
If true, you have to wonder what their interest in committing to Rantanen says about the talks with Mitch Marner, who Carolina was apparently asking for in return at one point. While we're at it, does the other big-name winger coming off the UFA market increase Marner's asking price, or does Rantanen settling for a very reasonable $12 million AAV bring it down? History tells us which option Marner's reps will pick; he's certainly used to having all the leverage in Toronto and squeezing for every dollar. So was this week the bump in the road that pushes both sides to get a reasonable deal done, or (finally) the beginning of the end?
GO DEEPER
Brad Treliving addresses Mitch Marner trade reports: 'We want Mitch here for a long time'
For now, the Leafs find themselves in familiar territory: A very good team that's all but locked into a playoff spot but facing the prospect of heading into the postseason as slight underdogs with a ton of pressure and a summer of turmoil on deck.
The five teams headed toward dead last and the best lottery odds for a top pick that could be James Hagens, Matthew Schaefer or someone else.
Marc-Andre Fleury faced the Penguins for the final time yesterday, and the final goal he allowed came from a fitting source.
5. Seattle Kraken (27-34-4, -18) — Credit to Ron Francis for knowing when to throw in the towel, I guess. But where do they go from here? Even with Shane Wright starting to live up to the hype, it's getting hard to find a path back to relevance for this team.
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4. Nashville Predators (24-32-7, -43) — Not moving Ryan O'Reilly in this market for centers, especially when he didn't have any formal NTC protection, will either look smart in a year or two when he's part of the turnaround or … not that.
Anyway, Steven Stamkos is still cool.
3. Buffalo Sabres (24-32-6, -23) — I don't hate the Josh Norris deal, even though I think the Senators got the better end of it. It's certainly a fun one as a neutral fan, a true hockey trade that will take years to truly get a verdict on. What would frustrate me as a Sabres fan is that, for now, this feels like a lateral move at best, as opposed to using Dylan Cozens and his potential to land a bigger piece who could help right now. Maybe Norris can get there, assuming he can finally stay healthy. But for the league's most worn-down fan base, even the blockbusters feel like more wheel-spinning.
2. Chicago Blackhawks (20-35-9, -45) — They didn't do much after the Jones blockbuster, nor did anyone really expect them to, although seeing likely UFA target Rantanen come off the board stings a little. Still, they provided an underrated fun moment by trading for Shea Weber's contract, which is somehow still moving around the league four years after he played his last game.
In other news, the Artyom Levshunov era has arrived.
1. San Jose Sharks (17-39-9, -71) — To summarize, Mike Grier got a second from Detroit for taking Jake Walman, then got a first from Edmonton for trading him. That's a nice bit of work (and also a disaster for the Red Wings, but their fans already know that).
Not ranked: Utah Hockey Club — Remember when they were going to come storming into the league, acquire every big-name player and spend all of Ryan Smith's money? It didn't really happen, and once the novelty of a new team wore off, they kind of faded from the headlines. But now we're heading down the home stretch, and they're right there in the Western wild-card race. If you squint just right, they might even be the favorite.
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They've got three teams to pass, but each looks beatable. The Canucks are a team in disarray. The Flames seem to be just happy to be there. And the Blues are all over the map, heating up over the last month enough that they chose to stand pat at a deadline in which they could have been popular sellers. In fact, you could argue that none of the four Western bubble teams got any better, with the Flames not spending any of their significant cap room and the Canucks getting snubbed by the market.
That could have been a chance for Utah to zoom past its stagnant competition, but if that opportunity was out there, Bill Armstrong chose not to take it. Instead, the focus was on keeping his group together, with extensions for Vejmelka, Alex Kerfoot and Ian Cole coming hours apart. That might end up feeling like a mistake — this is where I'll insert the cliché about how many chances you get to make a first impression. But you can see the plan in place in Utah, and at the very least, they certainly didn't lose any ground.
They've got the Leafs at home tonight, then a stretch of very winnable games that culminates with the Canucks on Sunday. That's one of just three games they have left against the trio of bubble teams they're in the mix with; they also get the Flames to kick off April, and then the Blues in the season's final game. There are some tough matchups sprinkled in between, including the Oilers, Jets, Panthers and a pair against the Lightning, so nothing will come easy. But the West's last spot is there for the taking, even if none of the teams involved seem to actually want it that much.
(And of course, best wishes to Connor Ingram.)
One last quick bit of housekeeping: I'll be away on vacation for the next week, so there will be no rankings next Monday, which is too bad because your favorite team was going to be ranked first. We'll be back on March 24 to set up the stretch run.
(Photo of Mikko Rantanen: Bob Frid / Imagn Images)