US Trade Team to Visit India Next Week, Official Says
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A team of US officials will visit New Delhi next week as the two nations work to hammer out an interim trade agreement before July 9, an Indian official said on Thursday.
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Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
America's biggest lender is closing its wallet — and investors and home buyers will feel it. Here's what to watch.
Over the past 40 years, Japan has helped bankroll Americans' lifestyle while its own economy sank into decades of stagnation. Now the tab's due, and it might cost the U.S. a fortune. The Japanese have been floating America's boat since the mid-1980s. Not out of kindness. Not out of stupidity. But because of a deal so sweet that nobody wanted to talk about it. 'He failed in his fiduciary duty': My brother liquidated our mother's 401(k) for her nursing home. He claimed the rest. I help my elderly mother every day and drive her to appointments. Can I recoup my costs from her estate? 'The situation is extreme': I'm 65 and leaving my estate to only one grandchild. Can the others contest my will? My new husband gave me a contract and told me to 'sign here' — but I refused. It was the best decision of my life. My daughter's boyfriend, a guest in my home, offered to powerwash part of my house — then demanded money Now the deal's going bad. Japan's drowning in debt, its politics are in chaos and it needs its money back. And when your biggest lender starts heading for the exits, it's time to pay attention. Japan holds $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds. It's got more U.S. paper than any other country. But unlike China — the second-largest Treasury holders — Japan has never complained about it. Japan just kept buying, kept lending, kept quiet. But here's the thing about quiet money — when it stops being quiet, you've got problems. Look at Japan today: government debt at 235% of GDP — that's like owing your annual salary times 2.3 to Visa. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba hanging on to power like a cat on a screen door, with 21% approval after a series of fundraising scandals and economic missteps. You know what happens when your biggest lender is both broke and paralyzed? America's reliable ATM is about to display 'INSUFFICIENT FUNDS.' Picture this: 1945. World War II is over. America's got the guns, Japan's got the ruins. The U.S. cut a deal — military protection for economic cooperation. But the real magic trick came later. For the next 40 years, Japan rebuilt itself, accumulating dollars and using them for its own development. Japan went from making tin toys to Toyotas JP:7203 TM, from cheap radios to world-class electronics. By 1985, they'd completed their first miracle. Then came the second act. The Plaza Accord of 1985 — five finance ministers in a New York hotel room deciding to dismantle Japan's export machine. Japan signed on too, thinking they could manage it. They couldn't. The yen USDJPY shot up 50% against the U.S. dollar DXY in two years. Japan faced a choice: Watch its economic miracle turn into a pumpkin, or get creative. They got creative. Instead of converting their mountain of trade-surplus dollars to yen (which would have pushed the yen even higher), the Japanese did something beautiful. They started buying U.S. Treasury bonds. Mountains of them. It was perfect. The U.S. got to keep borrowing. Japan got to keep exporting. Nobody had to mention that the whole thing was a shell game. As economists have long warned, this recycling machine couldn't last forever. But that's a problem for the next guy. For the next 40 years — from 1985 to now — this recycling machine has been running nonstop. Japan made our Walkmans (Google it, kids), Americans would buy them with dollars, and then — here's the beautiful part — Japan would loan those dollars back to the U.S. by purchasing Treasury bonds. It's like paying your bartender with an IOU, then having him loan you money to keep drinking. Genius! Three major shifts are killing this arrangement, and they're all happening at once. First, demographics. Japan's aging population needs those savings for retirement, not for subsidizing American consumption. Turns out, elderly Japanese people prefer eating actual food to dining on Treasury bonds. Read: Why America's aging population will be a problem for stocks — and your retirement Second, debt. At 235% of GDP, Japan's government debt makes America's national debt look positively prudent, like comparing a shopaholic to someone who merely forgot to cancel their gym membership. As Japan's bond rates rise, the math becomes more impossible than explaining cryptocurrency to your grandmother. Third, politics. Prime Minister Ishiba's government hangs by a thread, with 21% approval after a series of fundraising scandals and economic missteps. You can't run a corner store with 21% approval, let alone a country. Adding to the pressure, there's declining demand for Japanese government bonds domestically. This forces Japan to raise interest rates, which in turn makes holding U.S. Treasurys even less attractive. When your own bonds can't find buyers, it's hard to justify buying someone else's. Enter Masayoshi Son, the SoftBank JP:9984 SFTBY billionaire who's become President Donald Trump's favorite Japanese dealmaker. He pledged $100 billion in U.S. investments in December, but that was just the warm-up act. Son doesn't look like a financial revolutionary. He looks more like your accountant's fun uncle. But this billionaire who makes Elon Musk look risk-averse has reportedly floated an idea more radical than Trump's Gaza resort plan: transform Japan's passive Treasury holdings into active investments in American companies through a joint sovereign wealth fund. According to financial press reports, this would mean converting government bonds into equity stakes in U.S. technology, infrastructure and energy projects. Picture this: Instead of Japan parking $1 trillion in government bonds yielding less than a savings account at the Bank of Mattress, this money would flow into U.S. technology, infrastructure and energy projects. Both nations would share the profits. Americans might even be able to buy shares, receiving dividends from Japanese investment in the U.S. economy. Of course, converting $1 trillion in bonds to equity investments would be fraught with risks — currency fluctuations, market volatility and political backlash on both sides of the Pacific. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent would face a delicate task in making this transition without triggering a bond-market crisis — kind of like defusing a bomb while riding a unicycle. If Japan simply dumped its Treasury holdings, interest rates would spike faster than blood pressure at a tax audit. Time to panic? Not yet. But keep your running shoes handy. The immediate risks are clear: But the opportunity is equally significant. A U.S.-Japan investment fund could: This isn't just about financial engineering — though let's be honest, financial engineering is sexier than it sounds, like accounting's dangerous cousin who rides a motorcycle. It's about whether America can maintain access to foreign capital while reducing its debt dependence, kind of like keeping your rich friends while learning to pay for your own drinks. For 40 years, the U.S. has run its economy on other nations' savings like a teenager with Dad's credit card. That model is more exhausted than a parent of triplets. Critics will call this government interference in free markets. But free markets in international finance have always been about as real as professional wrestling — entertaining, but heavily choreographed. Every major economy practices industrial policy; America just outsourced its policy to allies and called it 'free trade.' Now the U.S. is bringing it home like a college kid with dirty laundry. Read: Why Trump's tax and spending bill isn't getting the bond market's vote Japan's quiet subsidy of American prosperity is ending. The U.S. Federal Reserve can't print its way out of this one — they've tried that trick more times than a birthday party magician. Congress can't tax its way out either, though God knows they'll probably try. The only path forward is a new bargain that transforms debt into equity, dependence into partnership. For American investors and homeowners, the message is crystal clear: The era of cheap money is over. Lock in fixed-rate mortgages while you can. Prepare for higher interest rates. And watch for announcements of new investment vehicles that could reshape global finance. The greatest risk isn't change — it's pretending the old system can continue. Japan's bondholders are already voting with their wallets. The only question is whether Washington can engineer an economic soft landing for the U.S. or whether the country is headed for the kind of turbulence that has flight attendants reaching for their own oxygen masks. Here's what to watch as these transitions unfold: For 40 years, Americans' have been drinking champagne on Japan's tab. Now it's closing time and they want to be paid in something besides IOUs. Welcome to the morning after. . More: Jamie Dimon's bond-market warnings put investors on alert to diversify outside U.S. Also read: The 'mother of all credit squeezes' is coming — hang on to your wallet 'I'm not wildly wealthy, but I've done well': I'm 79 and have $3 million in assets. Should I set up 529 plans for my grandkids? How do I make sure my son-in-law doesn't get his hands on my daughter's inheritance? Circle's stock is having another big day. What the blockbuster IPO has meant for other cryptocurrency plays. The S&P 500 closes at 6,000 as bulls aim for return to record territory 'I was pushed out of her life when she was 18': My estranged daughter, 29, misuses drugs. Should I leave her my Roth IRA? 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Forbes
an hour ago
- Forbes
Is Lululemon's Recent Pullback Your Perfect Entry Point?
CHINA - 2025/04/17: A shopper walks past the Canadian sportswear clothing band Lululemon store. ... More (Photo by Sebastian Ng/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Lululemon stock (NASDAQ:LULU) is currently trading at approximately $331 and seems undervalued based on its strong fundamentals, even though the stock often experiences volatility during turbulent market conditions. The company provided impressive Q1 2025 results, with revenue increasing by 7% to $2.37 billion and EPS rising to $2.60, just surpassing expectations. However, the market concentrated on a weaker-than-anticipated 1% increase in same-store sales and a revised full-year outlook, influenced in part by tariff-related pressures. The consequence? A swift 22% decline in after-hours trading that reflects more about short-term market sentiment than long-term intrinsic value. In spite of its high-performance profile, LULU behaves like a value stock. Lululemon trades at about 18x its trailing earnings (slightly lower than the historical average) and 19x price-to-free cash flow – both figures are beneath the S&P 500's averages—yet it is a company that consistently excels in revenue, margins, and return on capital. In comparison with its main competitor Nike, Lululemon is more affordable across significant profit metrics, with a reduced P/E and a more appealing P/FCF ratio. Investors are essentially acquiring Ferrari performance at Lexus pricing. Moreover, with a $32 billion market cap generating $1.6 billion in trailing free cash flow—a 5% cash flow yield, LULU appears to be more of a long-term wealth builder than a fluctuating apparel brand. For those looking for lower volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and yielding returns exceeding 91% since inception. Lululemon continues to showcase its growth capabilities. The company reports an impressive three-year revenue CAGR of 19%, which is more than three times the S&P 500's 5.5%. Over just the past year, it demonstrated 10% revenue growth, increasing annual sales to about $11 billion. Despite encountering macroeconomic challenges, the brand persists as a global growth powerhouse with an expanding international presence and remarkable efficiency. Its operating margin over the last four quarters of 23.7% nearly doubles the S&P 500's 13.2%, while its operating cash flow and net income margins (21.5% and 17.1%, respectively) significantly outperform broader market averages. These figures are not merely good—they're elite. Lululemon's balance sheet resembles a fortress. With a debt-to-equity ratio of just 4.9%, it is significantly below the S&P 500 average of 19.9%. Additionally, its cash-to-assets ratio of 26.1% far exceeds the market's 13.8%. This immaculate financial status provides Lululemon with both strength during downturns and the ability to invest in further growth. There's no way to sugarcoat it: Lululemon has experienced dramatic declines during market corrections. It dropped 46% during the downturn of 2022 (compared to the S&P's 25%), fell 47% in the early 2020 COVID-19 shock (versus 34%), and was extremely affected during the 2008 crash, plummeting 92% (compared to 57%). Investors must recognize that with LULU, strong fundamentals don't necessarily provide protection against sharp changes in sentiment. Our dashboard How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash illustrates how major stocks performed during and after the last six market crashes. Lululemon checks nearly every box: strong growth, solid profitability, and a fortified balance sheet, with the only drawback being its susceptibility during market downturns. Trading at a slight discount relative to its strong performance profile, the recent Q1 results, which included mixed outcomes and cautious guidance, underscore immediate challenges while preserving the integrity of long-term fundamentals. Nonetheless, you could also consider the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has surpassed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to yield strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid- and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks offered a responsive strategy to capitalize on positive market conditions while limiting losses during downturns, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
BMW plots range-extender revival with 2026 X5
Sixth-gen BMW X5 will arrive with electric power next year BMW is preparing to reintroduce a range-extender (REx) drivetrain to its line-up as part of a renewed push to offer pure-electric driving without the constraints of charging infrastructure – and its first REx model will be the upcoming sixth-generation X5. Engineering work is claimed to be already well under way in partnership with long-time component supplier ZF and high-ranking BMW sources say the decision to revisit the range-boosting technology comes as global sales of REx models are gaining strong momentum – particularly in China, BMW's largest market by sales volume. BMW plans to deploy its new range-extender drivetrain in some of its most popular SUV models for markets where charging networks remain under-developed and buyer hesitation around pure-electric drivetrains persists. REx tech is expected to provide potential electric ranges of well over 600 miles between refuelling. In addition to the X5, a REx drivetrain is also being considered for the recently introduced sixth-generation BMW X3 and the second-generation X7, due out in 2026. All three models are based on BMW's 10-year-old CLAR (Cluster Architecture) platform. BMW is no stranger to range-extenders. It first offered the technology in a production model in 2013 with the i3 REx (pictured), which offered an optional two-cylinder petrol engine to maintain battery charge, but the firm has not rolled the tech out to any other models following the i3 REx's retirement in 2018. BMW board members were this week due to review the final specification with engineers, prior to signing the range-extender off for production, Autocar has been told. The decision would mark a change of heart for CEO Oliver Zipse, who told investors last year that the technology was too expensive. 'To have a very large battery plus a combustion engine in there - there is a limit to the financial logic,' he said. 'Our PHEVs are currently around the 100-kilometre [range] which I think is the perfect point where the customer says 'This is what I would like to pay for.'' The X5 is currently the only BMW to be sold with four different drivetrain technologies, including petrol, diesel, plug-in hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell. The last of those is a low-volume model but has played a prominent role in the company's recent zero-emissions research and development activities. At this stage, it is not known whether the new petrol-electric range-extender will be offered as an alternative to the existing plug-in hybrid drivetrain used by the X5 xDrive45e or whether it will supplant it. ZF's newly developed range-extender architecture consists of two variants: the eRE and eRE+. The former combines an electric motor, planetary gearset and integrated converter. The latter adds a clutch and differential, enabling it to serve as both a generator and a secondary drive source. Output of the combustion engine ranges from 148bhp to 201bhp. ZF's eRE and eRE+ units can operate at peak efficiency, running the combustion engine only within its optimal rev range. This not only improves fuel economy but also reduces emissions and complexity, offering shorter development cycles and more affordable production than traditional hybrid set-ups. BMW is expected to combine elements of the ZF system with its sixth-generation electric drivetrain, which uses an 800V electric architecture. A key part of the development has involved leveraging experience from the experimental iX5 Hydrogen programme. Although hydrogen-powered, the iX5 employs a system that mirrors the REx format: a fuel cell acts as an on-board generator, producing electricity to charge a buffer battery that then powers the electric motor. The vehicle has no mechanical link between the power unit and driven wheels – a layout that BMW aims to replicate with its combustion-equipped range-extender. BMW engineers working on the project told Autocar that adapting a combustion engine for this new application is not as straightforward as it might appear. "It's not a simple case of taking the battery we use for our plug-in hybrids or pure-electric models and applying them to a range-extender," said one source. "The cycling efficiency is different, as is the thermal load. In a range-extender, you have a continuous charging effect while the engine is running. The entire energy management strategy must be tailored for that." However, the REx is not the only new drivetrain set to be brought to the X5. A new pure-electric version of the US-built SUV (seen here testing in sporting M-tuned guise) is planned for sale in 2026. It will use the same sixth-generation electric drivetrain and cylindrical cell battery technology that is set to be launched on the first of its Neue Klasse models, the second-generation iX3, later this year. BMW says its upcoming Neue Klasse EVs, including the i3, iX3 and iX5, will represent a 'quantum leap forward' in terms of technology compared with its current EVs. Chief among the upgrades for this next generation is a new type of nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) battery with cylindrical cells, which is said to be 20% denser and easier to package than modules (made up of square cells) found in today's 'Gen5' lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) packs. The results, BMW claims, are a 30% increase in range, a 20% uptick in efficiency and 30% faster charging. Production costs are also 50% less, it has said, suggesting potential for lower prices in the showroom too. Among the key drivers behind BMW's decision to revisit the range-extender is the meteoric rise of Chinese car maker Li Auto. Founded in Beijing in 2015, it has taken a leading role in the technology and currently offers four models with a range-extender drivetrain: the L6, L7, L8 and L9 (below). Li Auto's global sales surged past 500,000 in 2024 and the company has set an initial target of 700,000 for 2025. NMC battery technology for BMW's new range-extender drivetrain is said to be under development in partnership with CATL – the same Chinese-based automotive battery specialist used by Li Auto. All of Li Auto's existing range-extender models offer a range beyond 600 miles. The L9, which comes with the option of a 52.3kWh battery, manages up to 731 miles on the CLTC test cycle. ]]>
