The major Giro d'Italia contenders take shape — and one wildcard emerges

Independent

18-03-2025

After a long, dismal slog through torrential downpour, hailstorms, sleet, and snow, avoiding the crashes and misfortune that took out many of his rivals, Matteo Jorgenson emerged into the sunshine on the Cote d'Azur on Sunday to be crowned the winner of Paris-Nice.
The American, who lives and trains in Nice, joined an elite club of just ten men to complete a successful title defence at the storied 'Race to the Sun', and did so with the biggest winning margin this century – over a minute. Plenty of those – Merckx, Anquetil, Poulidor – have gone on to win cycling's biggest prizes. As the dust settles on a chaotic week of tune-up racing, one of the big conclusions to draw from his emphatic march to Nice has to be that Jorgenson is a Grand Tour contender.
Likewise Juan Ayuso, UAE Team Emirates-XRG's second- or third-in-command (it's hard to say, such is the squad's strength in depth) behind the imperious Tadej Pogacar. Ayuso strolled to victory in Paris-Nice's Italian counterpart, the less catchily-named Tirreno-Adriatico, dropping all his rivals on the closing climb of the penultimate stage to establish an unassailable lead.
The Spaniard is targeting the pink jersey at the Giro d'Italia, with Pogačar already confirmed to be skipping his title defence in Rome. As the foil to UAE's Portuguese climber Joao Almeida, who had a deeply mixed outing at Paris-Nice – winning a stage before rapidly losing time – en route to finishing fifth, Ayuso looks to have shored up both his place in the UAE hierarchy and his credentials as a genuine maglia rosa winner.
Jorgenson may not feel he had the same point to prove to his Visma-Lease a Bike team management, arriving at the start of Paris-Nice as a dual leader alongside Jonas Vingegaard. The American has already said Grand Tour victories are not a personal target for him this year, but working as a super-domestique is often a route to a podium finish. Adam Yates, Pogacar's key mountain lieutenant, proved as much in 2023. He went under the radar in Tirreno-Adriatico, with Ayuso assuming the leadership mantle, but the pair in theory will be co-leaders at the Giro.
Even as Paris-Nice's defending champion it seemed likely Jorgenson would work for Vingegaard, who has yet to fully hit his stride this year. That plan went awry when Vingegaard failed to completely distance his closest competitors on stage four, as Almeida attacked over the top La Loge des Gardes and accelerated away to the stage win. It's the second time UAE have got the better of Vingegaard on the same climb, after Pogacar did the same in 2023.
It's by no means a killer blow – there's a long time until the Tour starts in July, and the Dane centres his whole season on peaking then. But it does suggest that he is undercooked compared to where he'd like to be at this point in the season, and that the psychological momentum is with UAE, even with Jorgenson's morale-boosting victory for the Visma squad. Coupled with a crash on stage five that ultimately forced him to withdraw and recover – which solved Visma's race leadership headache, if nothing else – it looks like the Dane has work to do.
Pogacar's total dominance so far has thrown that into sharp relief. The Slovenian has picked up where he left off at the end of 2024, attacking for fun at his season-opening UAE Tour and discarding Tom Pidcock on a steep incline at Strade Bianche, sailing off into the distance and to a third title in Siena, despite being bloodied and bruised from a crash. Neutrals who might hope that Pogacar has peaked too soon are probably clutching at straws. He proved last year that he could obliterate the field on any day, at any time.
Ironically since his departure from Ineos – a squad centred around winning the Tour de France – Pidcock looks to have the form and belief to be a genuine Giro contender this year. He clung doggedly to Ayuso's wheel throughout Tirreno-Adriatico and was the last to be distanced by his race-winning attack on stage six, and later admitted he had more in the tank. Italy could prove a happy hunting ground for him again in May should his Q36.5 squad win a wildcard invite, and provide happier memories than his recent showings at the Tour de France.
As for the year's biggest race, in the face of Pogacar's overwhelming superiority there again look to be few challengers – but it's still early days. His less flashy compatriot, the perennial bridesmaid Primoz Roglic, may breathe a sigh of relief that the Giro field is comparatively open. The 35-year-old is aiming for a second title there and to take his best form into a tilt at the Tour, but age, and Pogacar, are not on his side. He has also had a relatively anonymous start to the year, with his sole result of note an eighth overall at the Volta ao Algarve.
That in itself isn't bad, but the Giro is less than eight weeks away. The clock is ticking, and even at this early point in the season, Pogacar's rivals are already playing catch-up.