AL Central roundtable: Taking stock of the division's contenders in a wide-open AL
By Dan Hayes, Zack Meisel and Cody Stavenhagen
It's rivalry week in the surprisingly good American League Central.
After splitting a pair of rain-slogged games with the Twins in Minneapolis, the Guardians open a four-game series at the Tigers on Thursday night. Meanwhile, the Royals are set to face the Twins three times at Target Field starting Friday night.
With four of the AL Central's five teams firmly in the playoff picture, The Athletic's Dan Hayes, Zack Meisel and Cody Stavenhagen discussed the race.
Meisel: The AL Central, the motley crew of five midwest misfits has, for years, been the subject of jokes, criticism and eye rolls. Even when the Guardians, Tigers and Royals advanced to the postseason in 2024 — and each won a series — it was the White Sox and the sorriest season in league history that emerged as the top storyline to come out of the division.
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But this isn't your slightly older sibling's Central. This is a group out to prove it can once again populate the AL playoff field. This is a division wreaking havoc on its counterparts… or something like that, and through an admittedly small sample of about 30 percent of the season.
The White Sox are no longer the face of baseball ineptitude, thanks to the high-altitude, low-aptitude Rockies. And the other four teams? Well, if the playoffs started today, they would claim four of the six AL postseason berths.
The Tigers have been a runaway train, steamrolling their way to the best record in the sport. The Guardians, Twins and Royals are mostly doing what they did last year. So as Cleveland and Detroit begin a four-game set and the Twins host the Royals for three, let's check in on the state of affairs in the powerhouse AL Central.
Hayes: Rainouts aside, this is a fun division. Has anyone mentioned to you guys there have been an excessive amount of rainouts or rain delays this season? If not, I've got a PowerPoint ready to go.
Stavenhagen: I remember when you guys used to do these and the Tigers were so bad that I didn't even get invited. Well, times have changed. The Tigers are off to a roaring start — and much of it looks like it could be for real. But I have questions for both of you. Zack: The Guardians have a winning record despite a minus-17 run differential. What is going on there? And Dan, for as good as the Tigers' pitching is, the Twins rank above them with a 3.20 team ERA. What's going on with the pitching staff in Minnesota?
Hayes: It's all about the strikeout to walk ratio. The Twins throw more strikes than anyone and don't sacrifice command to do it. Entering Wednesday, the Twins led the majors with 3.66 strikeouts for every walk they've issued. Joe Ryan and Pablo López are having strong seasons. Bailey Ober has a 2.40 ERA over his last nine starts. Though his first two starts were poor, Chris Paddack has been solid since. And the rotation is backed by a group of relievers who also feature a lot of swing-and-miss and don't walk many. Even though they're only 18th in the league in innings pitched, Twins relievers lead all of baseball by 0.5 WAR with 3.1, according to FanGraphs.
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But we knew, coming into the season, this group could be very good and would benefit from all of last year's injuries because the Twins now feature tremendous depth. What we still don't know is if the Twins can hit well enough to support the pitching. They have for about a month now. But the offense will determine how far they go.
Meisel: Well, the Guardians' offense is slightly below average (96 OPS+) and the pitching is slightly below average (97 ERA+) and so that equates to a team that… inexplicably has a winning record.
They're probably the most difficult team in this division to figure out, and that's coming from someone who examines their every inning. The lineup is a couple of bats short. By wRC+, the Guardians rank second-to-last in the league in production from their right fielders, third-worst from their shortstops and worst from their center fielders. The imminent return of Lane Thomas should help a bit, and David Fry's return in a couple of weeks should be a boost, but those two aren't enough to overhaul an offense that desperately needs support for José Ramírez and Steven Kwan.
How familiar is the rest of the AL Central with Daniel Schneemann? He has been Cleveland's third-best hitter this season, which has, for now, earned him the starting second base job. Two and a half years ago, he was a 25-year-old at Double A with a .578 OPS.
The Guardians have wasted a lot of quality starting pitching lately. Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Luis Ortiz started slow, but we're finally seeing signs the rotation could regain its customary status as the team's backbone. That's a necessary step, because at the moment, this team doesn't really have an identity. The back end of the bullpen remains a strength, but the group as a whole is a far cry from the historically dominant bunch it was last year.
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Cleveland needs to find some reinforcements for its lineup. That's been the separator in Detroit, it seems.
Hayes: Cody, what's been the key to Detroit's young bats finally taking the next step?
Stavenhagen: Let's sort by wRC+. The Tigers entered Wednesday with Riley Greene (147), Spencer Torkelson (143) and Kerry Carpenter (132) as their leaders. I've been trying to tell people for a long time that Greene is as good as almost anyone when healthy. He was an All-Star last year and is putting it all together in a big way this season, particularly since the start of May. Carpenter crushes right-handed pitching, but that's hardly news. Torkelson has been the surprise. He was pushed to the edge of the roster this spring when the Tigers signed Gleyber Torres and intended to move Colt Keith to first base. Instead, a series of tiny adjustments have Torkelson playing more like the hitter he was drafted to be. The Tigers needed right-handed help this offseason. They got it from a player they already had on their roster.
Torres, too, has given the Tigers steady at-bats and seems comfortable in Detroit after years of being both overshadowed and harshly scrutinized in New York. The Tigers also wouldn't be where they are without unexpected contributions from the likes of Zack McKinstry (130 wRC+), Javier Báez (125) and Dillon Dingler (122). I'm not sure those performances are as sustainable, but the Tigers are about to get two key players back from injuries in Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling. They've developed some high-end talent, got some pleasant surprises and also cultivated useful depth.
Coming into the year, I actually thought the Royals might be the team to beat. How are we feeling about KC?
Hayes: Any team featuring Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez always needs to be respected. Now, Maikel Garcia is having a breakout season and Vinnie Pasquantino really hasn't hit just yet.
But one thing the Royals had all season last year was outstanding health in the starting rotation. Last week, Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans hit the injured list at the same time, something Kansas City didn't deal with at all during their impressive 2024 season. How they handle this next few weeks will be key.
Any final thoughts?
Stavenhagen: Another thing I said before the year: The talent levels in this division are equal enough that it might come down to who stays healthy. The Tigers are padding their lead and continue to look like they're for real. But to keep these other teams at bay, they'll need Greene and Carpenter to stay healthy and avoid any more injuries to their rotation.
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Meisel: The American League as a whole feels wide open this season. There are a ton of teams buzzing around the .500 mark. There's no reason the Central can't send someone to the World Series. Of course, that's a conversation for the fall (though the weather in Minneapolis and Detroit this week sure feels like playoff weather). I'm looking forward to another four months of these four teams beating up on each other — and, of course, on the White Sox.
Hayes: It is definitely strange to be speaking optimistically about the teams in this division. Should make for an interesting summer — whenever that weather arrives. Please, please, please let the weather arrive soon.
(Top photo of Spencer Torkelson: Vaughn Ridley / Getty Images)
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