Tight races and major upsets mark final stretch of federal election

News.com.au

06-05-2025

Several key electorates remain in play as postal votes continue to be counted, with tight margins and late swings creating uncertainty in some of the nation's most closely watched contests.
In Bean, ACT Labor MP David Smith is clinging to a narrow lead of 51.38 per cent after preferences, but independent challenger Jessica Price remains within striking distance.
While Smith has pulled ahead, the final outcome may still depend on outstanding postal votes.
Bradfield on Sydney's north shore, one of the last blue-ribbon Liberal seats not yet claimed by a teal independent, has turned into a dead heat.
Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian sits just ahead with 50.02 per cent of the two-candidate-preferred count, narrowly leading independent Nicolette Boele on 49.98 per cent.
The Queensland seat of Longman also remains on a knife's edge, with LNP incumbent Terry Young on 50.15 per cent and Labor challenger Rhiannyn Douglas close behind on 49.86 per cent.
While Mr Young has edged ahead during the postal count, the result remains too close to call.
In Ryan, first preference data suggests another three-cornered contest. LNP candidate Maggie Forrest leads with 35.04 per cent of the primary vote, followed by the Greens' Elizabeth Watson-Brown on 28.93 per cent and Labor's Rebecca Hack close behind on 28.19 per cent. The seat, held by the Greens, is likely to come down to preference flows.
The Nationals look set to claim victory in Bendigo, a regional Victorian seat held by Labor's Lisa Chesters.
With Andrew Lethlean now leading on 52.89 per cent after preferences, the seat is expected to fall to the Nationals after Chesters lost her earlier lead.
In Flinders, Liberal MP Zoe McKenzie appears on track to retain the Victorian seat, leading by 18,689 votes in first preferences.
While full preference counts are unavailable, her strong margin suggests she will comfortably hold off challenges from Labor and independents.
Kooyong, the Melbourne seat held by teal independent Monique Ryan, remains in doubt.
Ms Ryan is ahead of Liberal challenger Amelia Hamer with 50.52 per cent to 49.48 per cent, although the narrow margin and ongoing count mean the final outcome is still uncertain.
Greens leader Adam Bandt is facing a serious challenge in Melbourne, where Labor's Sarah Witty leads the two-candidate-preferred vote with 54 per cent.
The contest is still live, but Mr Bandt will need a significant swing in remaining votes to hold the seat.
In Monash, Liberal candidate Mary Aldred leads by more than 10,000 votes on first preferences.
Though preference data is not yet available, she is in a strong position to win the seat previously held by retiring independent (and former Liberal) Russell Broadbent.
Over in Bullwinkel, a new seat on the fringes of Perth, Labor's Trish Cook and Liberal candidate Matt Moran are separated by just 47 votes, Ms Cook on 50.16 per cent and Mr Moran on 49.84 per cent.
Thousands of FIFO worker votes are yet to be counted, making this seat one of the most unpredictable.
In Fremantle, Labor MP Josh Wilson has pulled ahead of independent Kate Hulett, now leading 50.70 per cent to 49.30 per cent.
The close contest may still shift depending on remaining postals, but Mr Wilson appears to have regained the advantage.
Several of these battlegrounds are expected to go down to the wire, with preference flows and late postal votes likely to be decisive.
Remaining seats
Data supplied by the Australian Electoral Commission
Last updated May 6, 2025, 10.13am
Bean (ACT)
• David Smith (Labor) – 51.38 per cent
• Jessie Price (Independent) - 48.38 per cent
Bradfield (NSW)
• Gisele Kapterian (Liberal) – 50.02 per cent
• Nicolette Boele (Independent) – 49.98 per cent
Longman (QLD)
• Terry Young (LNP) – 50.15 per cent
• Rhiannyn Douglas (Labor) – 49.86 per cent
Ryan (QLD) – Preference data unavailable
Maggie Forrest (LNP) leads by 5,459 votes
First preferences:
• Maggie Forrest (LNP) – 35.04 per cent (31,275 votes)
• Elizabeth Watson-Brown (Greens) – 28.93 per cent (25,823)
• Rebecca Hack (Labor) – 28.19 per cent (25,155)
• Other minor party candidates shared the remaining 7.84 per cent
Bendigo (VIC)
• Andrew Lethlean (Nationals) – 52.89 per cent
• Lisa Chesters (Labor) – 47.11 per cent
Flinders (VIC) – Preference data unavailable
Zoe McKenzie (Liberal) leads by 18,689 votes
First preferences:
• Zoe McKenzie (Liberal) – 41.16 per cent (40,832 votes)
• Sarah Race (Labor) – 22.32 per cent (22,143)
• Ben Smith (Independent) – 22.03 per cent (21,854)
• Others, including Greens and minor parties, shared the rest.
Kooyong (VIC)
• Monique Ryan (Independent) – 50.52 per cent
• Amelia Hamer (Liberal) – 49.48 per cent
Melbourne (VIC)
• Sarah Witty (Labor) – 54 per cent
• Adam Bandt (Greens) – 46 per cent
Monash (VIC) – Preference data unavailable
Mary Aldred (Liberal) leads by 10,653 votes
First preferences:
• Mary Aldred (Liberal) – 32.26 per cent (28,818 votes)
• Tully Fletcher (Labor) – 20.34 per cent (18,165)
• Deb Leonard (Independent) – 17.41 per cent (15,548)
• Russell Broadbent (Independent) – 10.19 per cent (9,103)
• Others shared the remaining votes.
Bullwinkel (VIC)
• Trish Cook (Labor) – 50.16 per cent
• Matt Moran (Liberal) – 49.84 per cent
Fremantle (WA)
• Josh Wilson (Labor) – 50.70 per cent
• Kate Hulett (Independent) – 49.30 per cent