UFC 316 Fight Card Odds And Predictions: Gastelum Vs. Pyfer

Forbes

2 days ago

MEXICO CITY, MEXICO - MARCH 28: (L-R) Opponents Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer face off during the ... More UFC Fight Night ceremonial weigh-in at CDMX Arena on March 28, 2025 in Mexico City, Mexico. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
On Saturday, Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer meet in a matchup the UFC initially booked for the recent UFC Mexico City event. That fight fell through on the day of the event when Pyfer fell ill and was unable to compete. The two middleweights face off in Newark on the pay-per-view portion of the UFC 316 fight card.
We look at betting odds, line movement, preview, picks, and predictions for Gastelum vs. Pyfer, which takes place at Prudential Center. The UFC 316 PPV card streams on ESPN+ following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass.
The main event of UFC 316 finds UFC bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili against the man he took the title from, Sean O'Malley. Meanwhile, in the fight card's co-main event, two-time women's bantamweight champ Julianna Pena looks to do what she could not in her first title run, make a successful defense of her crown. Pena faces former two-time PFL lightweight tournament winner Kayla Harrison.
MEXICO CITY, MEXICO - MARCH 28: Kelvin Gastelum poses on the scale during the UFC Fight Night ... More ceremonial weigh-in at CDMX Arena on March 28, 2025 in Mexico City, Mexico. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Kelvin Gastelum (19-9-0-1) has been with the UFC since April 2013, when he won Season 17 of 'The Ultimate Fighter' with a split decision over Uriah Hall. The victory over Hall put Gastelum's professional record at 7-0.
Gastelum dropped to welterweight for his next UFC fight. He remained unbeaten through 2014, losing his first fight in January 2015 when Tyron Woodley defeated him via split decision.
Gastelum missed weight for the Woodley matchup, coming in at 180. It was not his first issue on the scale as a member of the UFC roster. He also came in heavy for his June 2014 win over Nico Musoke, weighing 172.75. Weight issues have plagued Gastelum throughout his UFC career, as he has struggled at times to make welterweight and middleweight.
Gastelum's career has been up and down since his loss to Woodley. Since that 2015 clash, his record stands at 8-8-0-1, and he has not won more than two fights in a row.
The 33-year-old is a very talented fighter, but his struggles to make weight and consistency issues inside the cage have hurt him. The high point of Gastelum's career is his 2019 interim UFC middleweight title fight opposite Israel Adesanya, a bout that recently enshrined the two men in the UFC Hall of Fame.
Gastelum has a 3-6 record dating back to April 2019, when he faced Adesanya. He is coming off a June 2024 unanimous decision win over Daniel Rodriguez.
MEXICO CITY, MEXICO - MARCH 28: Joe Pyfer poses on the scale during the UFC Fight Night ceremonial ... More weigh-in at CDMX Arena on March 28, 2025 in Mexico City, Mexico. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Joe Pyfer (13-3) had a first go at gaining a UFC contract in 2020 at a Dana White Contender Series event. At the time, the 23-year-old was 7-1. His only career loss to that point was a second-round submission setback to Jhonoven Pati under the Ring of Combat banner. Pyfer lost the ROC middleweight championship in that outing. Pyfer faced Dustin Stoltzfus on that DWCS card.
Pyfer looked good in the early going of that matchup, walking down his foe and looking to land powerful strikes. With a bit over two minutes left in the first round, Pyfer scored an easy takedown on Stoltzfus, who calmly looked to set up a submission while Pyfer did his best to create openings to land heavy ground strikes. With the clock ticking down, Stoltzfus stood and went for a slam takedown. Pyfer landed with all his weight on his extended right arm, causing an injury that ended the fight.
Pyfer recovered from that injury, but he did not fight again until he earned a first-round knockout win over Austin Trotman on a Cage Fury fight card.
The UFC gave Pyfer a second opportunity to earn a contract in July 2022. Pyfer faced Ozzy Diaz on a DWCS card. Pyfer was a +100 betting underdog at that event.
Pyfer didn't mess around on the feet against Diaz. He scored a takedown inside the first minute and then worked for a submission until Diaz reversed Pyfer with two minutes left in the round. Diaz could not keep Pyfer on the mat, as Pyfer worked back to his feet, where he scored with low kicks and an effective jab.
In the second stanza, Pyfer pressured Diaz and then, showing off his power, ended the fight with a powerful left hook that put his opponent on his back.
In awarding Pyfer a UFC contract, UFC CEO Dana White said, "If you want to get into the UFC, and this is where you want to be, act like Joe Pyfer. Okay? Be Joe Pyfer. Be excited to be here. Be fired up to fight. Try to finish the fight. Try to win. Be Joe Pyfer, and you will get into the UFC."
Pyfer put together a 3-0 run under the UFC banner between September 2022 and October 2023, scoring three stoppages and two 'Performance of the Night' bonuses.
Seeing promise in Pyfer, the UFC booked him in a main event against veteran Jack Hermansson in February 2024. Pyfer was a favorite in that matchup, but he fell short, as Hermansson's veteran skills showed gaps in Pyfer's game.
Pyfer rebounded from that loss with a first-round knockout win over Marc-André Barriault at UFC 303.
When BetOnline published the opening odds for this matchup, Pyfer was a -300 favorite over Gastelum, who was listed at +250. Today, Pyfer has climbed to -355, while Gastelum is a +280 betting underdog.
Age: 33
Height: 5' 9'
Reach: 71.5'
Stance: Southpaw
Age: 28
Height: 6'1'
Reach: 75'
Stance: Orthodox
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JUNE 29: Joe Pyfer looks on after his victory in a middleweight fight against ... More Marc-Andre Barriault of Canada during the UFC 303 event at T-Mobile Arena on June 29, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
Gastelum has one of the best chins in the business, and if Pyfer gets too aggressive and thinks he will be able to put his opponent away based on his power, things might get tricky for the younger fighter. Pyfer's best bet is not to chase the knockout here but to use his power to rack up damage while being sound defensively. The betting pick is for Joe Pyfer to beat Kelvin Gastelum by decision. However, for those who do not have faith in Pyfer's fight IQ, a Gastelum upset win via decision is a value betting pick to think about.
We will have more on the UFC 316 Gastelum vs. Pyfer bout as fight night nears, as well as live results, reactions, highlights and more for the UFC 316 pay-per-view card on fight night.