Lightning are a lock to go deep, and other lessons from the NHL playoffs prediction contest

New York Times

5 days ago

And then there were two. And soon, just one winner.
No, this isn't a Stanley Cup preview post that accidentally ran a few days early. It's an update on the annual playoff prediction contest, which is already over for almost all of you. We'll get to that in a bit.
But first, a refresher. This is the contest that seems simple, because it's only one question: Name as many or as few playoff teams as you'd like based on how many games they'll win, in order from most to least. That's it. We even give you the benefit of the doubt on ties, because we want you to succeed. But you don't. Did I mention that you're not good at this? Because you're not.
Advertisement
You can find this year's contest post here, and if you entered, you can find your answer by heading to the comment section of that post and using the dropdown to select 'my comments.' But you probably don't want to do that, because spoiler alert, there's a roughly 99.8 percent chance that you're out of the running.
Let's get into what happened and why you're bad at this.
We had 1,054 entries this year, which is basically the same as the year before. By the way, last year was the first time we tried this, so everyone was flying blind. This time, we at least have something to compare to, as well as (in theory) a strategy that worked once already.
Of those thousand or so entries, 79 of you went all out and listed 16 teams. As always, I admire your self-confidence. Also, as always, none of you came close. In fact, every one of those entries was out by the end of the first round. A few were out even sooner because they submitted impossible entries (like having two teams from one matchup both ahead of two teams from another). Just observationally, there seemed to be a very high crossover between those of you with the inflated ego to list 16 teams and those of you who thought Dallas was going to lose to Colorado. Do with that information what you will, Stars fans.
I will offer some congratulations to three entries — Adam H., Dan K. and Rubens M. — who submitted 16 teams and at least got the winners of all eight first-round series correct. They still had the order wrong, but going 8 for 8 on matchups is at least mildly impressive. The other 76 of you full-ballot types couldn't even manage that.
A further eight of you went with 15 entries, three of you tried 14, and six settled for 13. At the other end of the scale, 10 of you went with just three teams, a dozen of you went with two, and three of you got cute by listing just one team for a guaranteed 'right' answer that was presumably counting on an upset-laded playoffs taking everyone else out while banking enough wins to own the tie-breaker. Of those three, two of you took teams that went out in the first round and the only one who didn't had Toronto, so … yeah, this strategy did not work.
Advertisement
Not surprisingly, the most common number of entries was eight, which was how many last year's winner used. There are 281 of you with eight entries, edging out the 250 who had six.
It's always fun with these contests to try to figure out what your entries might tell us about who you do and don't believe in. In this case, that means running the numbers to see which teams were most often listed first on an entry (implying that lots of you thought they'd go far) and which ones were last (implying that you thought they'd be out early). There's not quite a direct correlation, mind you, because this is a contest where intentionally veering away from the mainstream might be a viable strategy, but it's still interesting.
With that in mind, here's how often each team was listed as the first team on an entry:
Hm. So our collective top five didn't even make it out of Round 2, including two first-round exits. If anything, my main takeaway here is that the narrative that's already forming around the Panthers — that they were always a playoff-honed sleeping giant and we all knew they'd be dangerous once the games really mattered — is nonsense.
Here's how often each team was listed last:
This feels a little more reasonable, with the top-six teams all being first-round casualties. But the Lightning stand out, all the way at the bottom of the list. They were out in five games in an opening round that had no sweeps, meaning everyone who picked them here was technically right. But that was only 11 of you, meaning 99 percent of you figured they'd do better than they did. Don't worry, you weren't the only dummies who felt that way.
We don't know … yet. But we can narrow it down to two contenders.
First things first: For the second straight year of the contest, the magic number for teams is indeed going to be eight. Of the 273 entries that listed nine or more teams, every single on was already dead by the time the conference finals started.
Advertisement
But three contestants listed eight teams and were still alive. That included two — Matt G. and Gaurav A. — who only had Carolina left on their entry, meaning they were guaranteed a correct answer. Both entries included the Hurricanes, Jets, Capitals, Devils and Habs. But Gaurav's remaining trio of Toronto, Los Angeles and Ottawa produced one more win than Matt's mix of Vegas, St. Louis and Minnesota, giving Gaurav the tie-breaker and leaving Matt with no hope of taking the crown.
So who's left to stand in Gaurav's way? That would be Tony D. He also has eight teams listed, but his list included all four conference finalists, meaning he's running away with the tie-breaker … if he can stick the landing. Here's what his entry looks like:
Tony D. — Edmonton, Florida, Dallas, Carolina, Vegas, Washington, Minnesota, Ottawa
He came into this week already home and cooled out on those last four teams. But he still needed three things to happen:
• Edmonton and Florida win their conference finals. Mission accomplished.
• Carolina does not win more games than Dallas while losing. Another hit.
• And finally, Edmonton has to beat Florida in their Cup final rematch. To be determined.
So if the Oilers win the Cup, Tony D. will take the crown and become our second champion. (He'll also set the record for best score ever, narrowly edging out last year's winner, Sean M., who had eight teams and 52 wins. No, not me, we mean the smart Sean M.) If not, Gaurav is our champion.
So there you have it … there's something to play for over the weekend and beyond. Well, that and the Stanley Cup — if you're into that sort of thing.
(Photo of Nikita Kucherov: Mike Carlson / Getty Images)