Hurricane forecasts and weather data at stake in NOAA cuts

BBC News

13-03-2025

As an engineer who flies into hurricanes for the US government, Josh Ripp is accustomed to turbulence. But the last two weeks have been far bumpier than he's used to.In late February, the Trump administration fired Mr Ripp and over 800 recently hired or promoted staff at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency using a form email, part of ongoing cuts to the federal workforce.Suddenly, he and several other members of the elite Hurricane Hunters flight team were out of a job - until around 21:00 Friday when he received a second email. He was to report back to work in Lakeland, Florida, 12 March, it said.For Mr Ripp, a retired US Navy officer who voted for Donald Trump, the confusion highlighted the dangers of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency slashing thousands of government jobs to cut costs without agency input.As soon as this week, the Trump administration could consider axing more than 1,000 additional staffers at NOAA, according to BBC News partner CBS News. Those potential cuts, plus losses from previous firings and buyouts, would cost the agency up to 20% of its workforce, the New York Times reported. The White House did not comment on additional cuts, but a Trump administration official said an "extensive process was conducted" to ensure "mission critical functions" were not compromised during the first round of dismissals.Has Doge really found hundreds of billions of dollars in fraud?Who is Doge's official leader? White House says it's not Musk"NOAA provides vital information to the entire country and we do it at a fraction of the cost that anyone else could do," Mr Ripp said. "There's a lot of jobs out there that are very important. NOAA is a small agency. Every little bit hurts."The cuts will not only harm government functions, staffers and weather experts warn, but they could disrupt the daily lives of Americans who rely on accurate NOAA data more than they know.The data that powers Americans' smartphone weather apps and informs local meteorologists comes from NOAA and its subsidiary, the National Weather Service. Americans use it to decide what to wear, and whether to meet friends in the park or indoors. They rely on it during hurricanes, tornadoes or blizzards. List weekly accomplishments or resign, Musk tells US federal workersMusk wields his Doge chainsaw - but is a backlash brewing?Airlines and federal aviation officials need forecasts to safely guide planes through the sky. Retailers use them to schedule customer deliveries. Shipping companies and fisheries in the Great Lakes rely on NOAA updates about ice conditions and algae blooms."People take for granted how accurate the weather forecasts are," said Andy Hazelton, a NOAA climate scientist who modelled hurricane paths and was fired in February. "Forecasts are going to get worse because offices are understaffed."
Flying into hurricanes, so you don't have to
Hurricane Hunters measure hurricanes from the inside, gauging their strength and paths. As a flight engineer for the P-3 aircraft, Mr Ripp ensures that the nearly 50-year-old planes NOAA uses are safe. Missions cannot take off without team members like him aboard.The original staffing cuts would have limited hurricane flights, said Lt Kerri Englert, a flight director for the Hurricane Hunters - also cut in February then reinstated. "That means data doesn't get ingested into the models, and forecasting for those hurricane tracks and intensity will be less accurate," she said. adding that it would impact evacuations, money allocated for storm preparation and disaster response.Already, local National Weather Service offices have scaled back lesser known but crucial work, due to cuts.Watch: Moment extreme turbulence hits Hurricane Milton huntersHelene is deadliest mainland US hurricane since KatrinaFor example, scientific balloon launches from Alaska - vital to national forecasts because the location allows them to assess systems moving from west to east - were curtailed, weather experts told the BBC. Launches in New York and Maine also were reduced.NOAA spokeswoman Susan Buchanan declined to comment on individual staffing decisions, citing agency policy.But, she said, "NOAA remains dedicated to its mission, providing timely information, research, and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation's environmental and economic resilience.""We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission."A Trump administration official said an "extensive process was conducted" to ensure "mission critical functions" were not compromised.
A future in doubt
Some of NOAA's long-term, climate-focused initiatives also face cuts.Before he was fired, NOAA scientist Zach Labe studied using artificial intelligence to prepare for deadly heat waves. Others in his division, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, also were fired and their specialities make them difficult to replace, he said."People who were impacted were definitely the key people who were leading the development of the US weather models," Mr Labe told BBC.Even private sector weather companies rely on accurate NOAA and NWS data for their products."We operate on razor thin margins to keep costs low," said Ryan Hickman, owner and chief technology officer at AllisonHouse, which takes data from NOAA and other sources to create custom weather visualisations.For AllisonHouse, NOAA is both a data source and a client.Mr Hickman was particularly worried that the agency's radar and satellite services could be impacted. "Nobody else has these satellite capabilities NOAA has," he said."Unless someone has a billion dollars to build a weather satellite and launch it into geostationary orbit, and have it sit there and read all this data, and bring it back down to Earth so that everyone else can see it and use it, then what are we doing here?"The prospect of more cuts alarms scientists and private businessmen like Mr Hickman, who believe they will strain the agency's maintenance of the complex and delicate instruments needed to produce real-time as well as future forecasts.NOAA's primary goal is to keep Americans informed about the future, in ways both mundane and urgent, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles."There is almost unanimous horror among people who really understand how this works," he said.He feard some in the administration believe in a "philosophy that not only can we not plan for the future, but we also should not even try to prevent bad things from happening."Back in Florida, Mr Ripp still doesn't know what the future holds.During his brief unemployment, he explored opportunities flying for a private firefighting company – and still would not rule out leaving NOAA. He remains angry that fellow veterans were caught up in the layoffs.He backed Trump due to the president's commitment to the rule of law, he said, but now Mr Ripp thinks Trump is flouting the correct procedures for reducing the federal workforce."We're very good stewards of the money we're given by the government. We're not out here committing waste or anything like that," Mr Ripp said. "If you're looking for government savings, NOAA's not the place."