What we've learned about Edmonton Oilers in 2025 Stanley Cup Final so far

New York Times

18 hours ago

Through the first four games of the Stanley Cup Final, Edmonton Oilers fans can draw some strong conclusions about their team. No Western Conference opponent in this spring's playoffs came close to matching the battle of the Florida Panthers, and the thrill ride of this final will be remembered for a long time.
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What have fans learned about the Oilers? Plenty.
Edmonton's top winger did not repeat his 54-goal season of 2023-24, nor his 16-goal playoff run in the spring of 2024. However, even with 27 regular-season goals and another five tallies this spring, Hyman's presence in the lineup gave the Oilers an edge.
He was rock solid through the first two series against the Los Angeles Kings and Vegas Golden Knights. In the series versus the Dallas Stars, he once again delivered until he was injured (he missed the final game against Dallas and will miss the entire final series against the Panthers).
Hyman's performance at five-on-five while healthy was impressive. Edmonton's 4.09 goals per 60 while he was on the ice was the No. 1 total among regular forwards, and his 65 percent on-ice goal share in the discipline ranked No. 3 among Oilers regulars.
Individually, he posted 1.09 goals per 60 and 2.18 points per 60 at five-on-five, both quality totals. He led the Oilers forward group with 6.5 high-danger chances per 60 in the game state. His hits per 60 at five-on-five (28.34) leads all NHL forwards with 100-plus minutes during the 2025 playoffs.
Hyman's ability to find quiet ice, play a complementary scoring role and give the top line a physical presence has been sorely missed in the games played since he was injured.
All observers knew the Oilers' 2024 playoff penalty kill was unique. Everyone realized it could not be duplicated. There was hope it would remain a strength. That has not come to pass.
Here are the numbers through three games:
All numbers penalty kill, via Natural Stat Trick
Entering Game 4, the Oilers had surrendered 21 goals while not scoring short-handed. That compared poorly to the Panthers (one goal for, 10 against) and is an area of weakness for this version of the hockey club.
On Thursday night, the Oilers gave up two goals on the penalty kill, but managed to score a huge goal (the first Edmonton goal of the night, by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins) to get things started in the second period. That goal signalled a massive turnaround in the game and the series.
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In last year's final, Connor McDavid's five-on-five goal share (78 percent) was something to behold. Despite a 58 percent expected goal share, the Oilers outscored Florida 7-2 when the captain was on the ice, via Natural Stat Trick. Individually, McDavid scored 1.08 goals per 60 and 3.25 points per 60 during the series against the Panthers one year ago.
In this year's final, McDavid's five-on-five on-ice expected goal share (56 percent) through three games was a doppelganger for his 2024 number. Unfortunately for McDavid and the Oilers, that's where the similarity ends. His actual goal share (2-4, 33 percent) shows a No. 1 line that is struggling to score and giving up more than a goal per game defensively. His points per 60 this year (0.77) in the final is far off last season's mark, and he has yet to score at five-on-five in this series.
McDavid's breakout will be loud when it comes.
The Oilers had a tough time in Sunrise. Beginning early in Game 3 (the defence and goaltending on the first goal by Brad Marchand), Edmonton seemed unable to maintain any kind of structure. The lack of discipline on the Marchand goal at 56 seconds of the first period of Game 3 bled into all areas of the two games in Sunrise.
The Oilers took penalties at a rapid clip. The penalty kill from a year ago may have had a chance against the avalanche of short-handed minutes, but this year's version of the team was found badly wanting.
The outlet passes that had been a key to the Oilers' success in the previous series were evident early in Game 1 at Rogers Place, but the Panthers suffocated the outlets, and Edmonton was unable to adjust.
Lack of discipline emerged as a key issue for this version of the Oilers during Game 2 and much of Game 3 in Florida.
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Since he arrived as Edmonton's head coach 20 months ago, Kris Knoblauch has been able to find solutions to multiple problems.
Knoblauch is a tactician with a growing reputation for innovation. He also has his finger on the pulse of the team, and his lineup shuffles often result in quick turnarounds and long winning streaks.
The only hurdle he hasn't been able to overcome is the Panthers. Florida coach Paul Maurice appeared to be Knoblauch's Moby Dick.
In the games this week, Knoblauch's calm breakouts and defensive structure disappeared in a parade to the penalty box, turnovers in the Edmonton zone and baffling passes to nowhere. The dismantling of the Knoblauch plan appeared complete.
In the pivotal moment of Game 4, Knoblauch inserted backup goaltender Calvin Pickard into the lineup to begin the second period. Pickard was the owner of a 6-0 record before Thursday night, and is now 7-0 this postseason.
Oilers fans of a certain age well remember the five Stanley Cup victories in seven years from 1984 to 1990. However, for younger fans, the 2006 and 2024 losses, both in seven games, are all they know of the Stanley Cup Final experience.
The idea that losing a seven-game series is the ultimate pain rings true. However, the pain of watching a team arrive at the final and be denied twice by the same team, the second time in easier fashion over fewer games, would be almost too much to take.
The Oilers won a massive game, but the job is not done. Edmonton is now in a best-of-three series against a team that takes all of the oxygen out of the rink with a demonic forecheck, employs a goaltender who is emerging as a strong candidate for the Conn Smythe Trophy and is led by a coach who seemed to have all the answers until Thursday night.