Brokerages stay bullish on Adani Ports' NQXT deal
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Brokerages remain positive on Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone's (APSEZ) acquisition of a 100% stake in Singapore-based Abbot Point Port Holdings from Carmichael Rail and Port Singapore Holdings, viewing it as a strategic addition to the company's global portfolio.The deal, valued at AUD 3.97 billion (AUD 3.15 billion in equity and AUD 819 million in net debt), will be financed through a preferential allotment of 143.8 million new equity shares to CRPSHPL. This will raise the promoter group's holding in APSEZ by 2.13%. Axis Capital , which maintains a Buy rating with a target price of Rs 1,518, noted that while the deal is EPS- and RoCE-dilutive through FY27 (130–150 bps drop in RoCE and 2–3% dip in EPS), the preferential allotment is at par, and NQXT's throughput has scalable potential—including future exports of green hydrogen. 'Initial market reaction could be muted, but the asset offers long-term value,' the brokerage said. Motilal Oswal Financial Services , with a Buy rating and target of Rs 1,560, said the acquisition enhances APSEZ's international cargo footprint. 'The company expects gains through higher contracted capacity, renewed contracts with better pricing, and operational synergies. EBITDA is projected to rise from AUD 228 million in FY25 to AUD 400 million by FY29.'Shares of APSEZ which rose 12% in the last three months compared to a 4.78% gain in the Nifty ended 1.3% lower on Monday to close at Rs 1,243.10.NQXT, operational since 1984 and held under a 99-year lease from the Queensland government, gives APSEZ 85 years of assured control over a strategic asset. The terminal is a key export hub for coal, with 88% of FY25 cargo volumes destined for Asia—including 12.4 MMT to China and 6.4 MMT to India.Kotak Securities said Abbot Point is a scalable, high-quality asset that strengthens APSEZ's global growth strategy. 'With long-term take-or-pay contracts, access to high-grade, low-cost coal mines, and geographic diversification across Asia, the asset justifies the 17x EV/EBITDA valuation. A strong four-year growth trajectory further supports the deal's strategic merit.'On a pro forma basis, the NQXT acquisition is expected to boost APSEZ's consolidated volume, revenue, and EBITDA by 6–7% in FY26, with a 4% uplift in PAT, further aligning with the company's 1,000 MMT throughput target by 2030, said Kotak Securities.
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