Israel's strikes set back Iran's nuclear program, but fail to dismantle it completely

Hans India

a day ago

Israel's recent wave of airstrikes inflicted significant damage on Iran's nuclear infrastructure but failed to fully dismantle the program, according to global nuclear experts. This outcome leaves both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the U.S. administration facing a critical decision on how to proceed.
Preliminary reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicate that while Israel targeted surface-level structures at the Natanz nuclear facility, the heavily fortified underground halls—where uranium enrichment occurs—remain intact. Natanz is central to Iran's nuclear ambitions, and the inability to penetrate its core enrichment areas suggests the operation, while serious, was incomplete.
Strikes on other key sites, including Isfahan and Fordow, will also factor heavily into Israel's strategic calculus. The Isfahan facility is Iran's only uranium conversion site—an essential part of the nuclear fuel cycle. Disabling it could temporarily freeze Iran's capacity to enrich additional uranium, though experts note the country still holds considerable stockpiles of enriched material.
'If you interrupt that piece of the flow-sheet, the fuel cycle doesn't work anymore,' said Robert Kelley, a former IAEA weapons inspector. 'The front end of their program dies.'
The air campaign reportedly killed nine senior nuclear scientists, which could severely set back Iran's technical capabilities. Still, the bigger challenge may be what happens next. Analysts warn that further escalation could push Iran to deepen its nuclear activities underground, cut off access to international inspectors, and abandon remaining diplomatic efforts.
In retaliation, Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones toward Israeli cities, signaling that tensions could sharply intensify.
UN officials, including IAEA chief Rafael Grossi, have expressed concern that the strikes could limit future monitoring of Iran's nuclear program. The potential for Iran to divert enriched uranium to undisclosed locations, or exit the Non-Proliferation Treaty altogether, has heightened global anxiety.
'Iran's 400 kilograms of highly-enriched uranium could be easily concealed in a few cylinders,' Kelley added, warning that any move toward weaponization would be difficult to detect without full inspection access.
Fordow, another critical enrichment site buried deep within a mountain, remains virtually untouched. Experts say only the U.S. military has the capability to destroy such a fortified facility with bunker-busting munitions.
'Israel cannot destroy Fordow without U.S. support,' said Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association.
This raises a difficult question for the Trump administration. While President Trump has repeatedly voiced preference for diplomacy over military intervention, pressure is mounting for the U.S. to act if Iran's program shows signs of recovery.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies noted, 'While the administration may not want to launch strikes, allowing Iran to rebuild its nuclear infrastructure may be seen as a greater risk.'
Even Israeli leadership concedes that airstrikes alone are not a permanent solution. 'It is impossible to destroy the nuclear program with force alone,' said Israel's National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi. 'The goal is to make the Iranians understand that they will have to stop the nuclear program.'
With diplomatic negotiations on uncertain footing and regional tensions rising, the path forward for both Israel and the United States remains fraught with complexity and risk.