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Yahoo
35 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Eurozone manufacturing shows signs of recovery: Is the slump over?
The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for May 2025 was 49.4, up from 49.0 in April, according to S&P Global. However, this is still in contraction territory, as it was below 50, and marked the slowest pace of contraction in the manufacturing sector since August 2022. Meanwhile, output rose for the third month in a row, with new orders stabilising after almost three years of decline. The rate of backlog depletion also dropped to the slowest pace since June 2022. On the other hand, employment levels continued to lag, although they decreased at the slowest rate since September 2023. Input costs fell for the second consecutive month, which was the fastest decline in 14 months, while output prices slid for the first time since February this year. Business confidence rose to the highest level in more than three years in May. Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said in the May Eurozone PMI report: 'The upward trend in the headline PMI is still continuing, pointing towards a recovery that is progressing. That is backed up by the rise in production we have seen since March. 'What is especially encouraging is that production has picked up across all four major eurozone economies, which really highlights how broad-based this recovery is. With output rising for three months in a row, historical patterns suggest there is a 72% chance we will see another increase in the next month.' However, he highlighted that the possibility of the US imposing steeper tariffs against the EU is a major risk to this outlook. 'Still, companies are noticeably more upbeat than they were last month about producing more a year from now, which shows a certain resilience, even in the face of potential protectionist moves from across the Atlantic,' de la Rubia added. Falling oil and gas prices and lower interest rates supported the eurozone manufacturing sector in May, with production rising in France, Germany, Spain and Italy. Related What's the average UK house price? May's market data shows resilience US economy falls 0.2% in the first quarter, hit by Trump's trade war The HCOB Spain manufacturing PMI for May was 50.5, a jump from April's 48.1, according to S&P Global. This was ahead of analyst expectations of 48.4. After three straight months of contraction, this was the first expansion in the Spanish manufacturing sector, while also being the highest number since January. May's higher figure could be because of underlying demand improving slightly. While uncertainties affected the sector significantly in April, the market seemed to readjust a little in May. Spanish manufacturing sales volumes fell in May, however, the decline was the smallest in four months. Companies continued to hire for the third consecutive month, while input costs fell for the first time since the beginning of last year. Output prices also dropped at the fastest rate since September 2024, mainly due to higher market competition. Similarly, output sentiment for the next 12 months rose to a three-month high. Jonas Feldhusen, junior economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said in the May Spain PMI report: 'Spain's manufacturing sector sent encouraging signals in May. Whether this improvement is partly attributable to early signs of easing in the global tariff conflict remains uncertain. 'While Spain's direct dependence on the U.S. market is relatively limited compared to countries like Germany or Italy, indirect effects from a generally improved global trade outlook may also be contributing.' Related European markets lower as investors eye US-China trade developments The HCOB Germany manufacturing PMI for May came down to 48.3, down from April's 48.4, according to S&P Global. This was the 35th month in a row of contraction in the German manufacturing sector, although output advanced for the third month in a row. Manufacturing output was mainly supported by rising export orders from the US and Europe, although overall new orders still fell marginally, dampened by lagging domestic demand. Job cuts slowed to the weakest pace since January 2024, with input stock declines and purchasing activity decreases also slowing. Input prices continued to fall, dragged down by lower oil prices, lagging demand and a stronger euro. Robust competition led to more factory gate price cuts in May, while optimism about future output soared to the highest level since early 2022. Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia noted in the May Germany PMI report: 'Most people have got so used to gloomy headlines from the industrial sector that the good news often slips under the radar. That is why it is worth looking beyond the headline PMI figure, which dipped slightly and is still in contraction territory. The broader picture actually shows some encouraging signs. 'Production has now increased for the third month in a row, and foreign orders have been on the rise for two straight months. What's more, the uptick in output is not limited to just one area – it is showing up across the board, in capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer goods.' He further noted that business sentiment may be optimistic due to the formation of a new government, along with a large infrastructure package, the promise of tax breaks and plans to increase defence spending. 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New York Times
an hour ago
- New York Times
German Border Police Barred From Rejecting Some Asylum Seekers Without a Review
The German border police can no longer reject asylum seekers who arrive from neighboring European Union countries without investigating their claims, a Berlin court ruled on Monday, dealing a blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz's attempts to control such migration. The ruling came in response to a legal complaint filed by three Somali refugees who were sent back to Poland shortly after the German police barred them from entering at the eastern border last month, following new directives from the government. Days after Mr. Merz was sworn in as chancellor, Alexander Dobrindt, his interior minister, ordered the border police to send back some asylum seekers who arrive at the border from other European Union countries. The new rule was an attempt to deliver on Mr. Merz's campaign promise to reduce the number of asylum seekers entering Germany. It remained unclear to what degree the ruling on Monday would stymie plans to limit the number of arrivals; the government is also suspending a program that lets asylum seekers sponsor their families. On Monday night, Mr. Dobrindt said that he did not believe that the court's ruling covered the practice in general and applied only to the one case. And he promised to continue his policies at the border. 'We stand by our legal opinion and do not consider it to have been undermined in this instance,' he told reporters. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Conservative Nawrocki wins knife-edge Polish presidential election
Conservative Karol Nawrocki has won a knife-edge vote to become Poland's next president, the electoral commission confirmed on Monday, after he secured 50.89% of the vote. His opponent, liberal candidate and Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, received 49.11%. Trzaskowski on Monday congratulated his right-wing rival. "This victory is an obligation, especially in such difficult times. Especially with such a close result. You should remember that," Trzaskowski wrote on X. The 53-year-old mayor of Warsaw thanked his voters and apologized, saying: "I am sorry I did not succeed in convincing the majority of citizens of my vision of Poland." Nawrocki's election is likely to complicate efforts by Prime Minister Donald Tusk to push through his government's policies, as Nawrocki represents the rival conservative nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party and as president will have the power to veto legislation. The final result was a major disappointment for Trzaskowski's camp, after exit polls on Sunday night indicated that he had a very slight lead. Trzaskowski even called the outcome a win immediately after the first exit polls were announced, but his margin disappeared during the course of the night. Of the 29 million eligible voters, Nawrocki received 10.6 million votes, while Traszkowski received 10.23 million, the electoral commission said. Voter turnout was just under 72%. All the opinion polls in the run-up to Sunday's vote had indicated a razor-thin gap between the candidates since the first round of voting on May 18. Political stalemate? In Poland, the president holds a five-year term and has broad powers, including representing the country abroad, shaping foreign policy, appointing the prime minister and the Cabinet, and serving as commander-in-chief of the armed forces in the event of war. The president also has the power of veto over legislation that has passed through parliament - a power used on several occasions by outgoing President Andrzej Duda, who like Nawrocki represents PiS. Prime Minister Donald Tusk is from the rival Civic Coalition. As head of the Institute of National Remembrance tasked with evaluating the country's complex recent past, Nawrocki ordered Soviet memorials to be destroyed following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, exploiting the move in the media and incurring the wrath of the Kremlin. His upbringing in a working class area in Gdańsk, his successful career in amateur boxing and his work as a nightclub bouncer while a student counted as pluses with many voters. Less so his alleged links to prostitution dating back to that time. He aims to maintain traditional Polish values and cautions against transferring powers to the European Union. EU looks forward to 'good cooperation' European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was however quick to congratulate Nawrocki on his win. "I'm confident that the EU will continue its very good cooperation with Poland," she wrote on X. "We are all stronger together in our community of peace, democracy, and values." "So let us work to ensure the security and prosperity of our common home."
