Swinney risks SNP backlash over independence strategy

The Herald Scotland

04-05-2025

Professor Mitchell said Mr Swinney had "managed to halt the decline of the SNP" though had not been able to get the SNP back to previous levels of support.
He said his prospect of remaining First Minister relies on Reform performing well at Labour's expense, which, in his view, explained "why he has been keen to talk up support for Reform".
In his speech after the SNP's defeat in the general election last July, Mr Swinney suggested the party had put too much focus on independence without persuading people why it was needed.
Professor James Mitchell (Image: STEWART ATTWOOD) He said that the SNP had 'failed to convince people of the urgency of independence in this election campaign', adding: 'Therefore, we need to take the time to consider and to reflect on how we deliver our commitment to independence, which remains absolute.'
His government later announced the ending of the publication of the Building the New Scotland series of papers, launched back in June 2022 by Nicola Sturgeon to update the case for independence, and axed the post of independence minister.
Professor Mitchell told The Herald on Sunday that his actions could lead to criticism towards him from inside the SNP though the wider public may support his stance.
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"There has been far less emphasis on independence under John Swinney evidence that he acknowledges privately, though he could never admit this publicly, that there is little current appetite for another independence referendum in the electorate.
"This approach of pushing independence onto the back burner will likely contribute to internal difficulties on the other side of the election for Swinney even if it halts further decline in SNP support."
He added: "Under Swinney, the SNP has been slowly and quietly shedding Sturgeon-era politics but has not come up a clear and coherent alternative set of policies or a strategy to deliver independence.
"He has tried to remain loyal to Sturgeon while abandoning her policies or at least the emphasis she placed on certain policies and campaigning, especially her tendency to adopt Scottish Green Party policies.
"He appears to be caught between his traditionalist roots in the SNP and his remaining loyalty to Sturgeon. He has already lost support amongst the SNP's traditional wing and may now lose support amongst those who remain loyal to Sturgeon/Green wing of the SNP."
With many SNP MSPs including ministers standing down at the election next May, Professor Mitchell went on to say that the new SNP group at Holyrood will be "very different" .
However, he did not believe there would be a major change in policy direction.
"While members of the SNP Holyrood group will be very different after May 2026, it is unlikely that it will be much different in policy terms," he said.
"The SNP is struggling to attract much needed fresh blood and fresh thinking – as evidenced by the likelihood that two MPs, are abandoning the Commons to stand for Holyrood.
"They presumably hope to be big fish in the smaller Holyrood pond having become marginalised in the Commons as part of a much diminished SNP group following the last election.
"They probably see themselves as potential Scottish ministers though it is difficult to see any signs from any of them that they would bring anything particularly interesting or new in policy terms.
"Stephen Flynn is a populist campaigner with a barely concealed mission to lead the SNP. His reputation for indulging in plots against colleagues – to depose his predecessor in the Commons group and more recently associated with efforts to depose incumbent SNP women MSPs – has potential to disrupt and damage the SNP and will cause some concern amongst many SNP MSPs."
The SNP, Mr Flynn and Mr Gethins were approached for comment.