How to watch Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt: Odds, storylines for men's NCAA Tournament matchup

New York Times

21-03-2025

Saint Mary's is making its fourth NCAA Tournament appearance in a row and has become a regular during Randy Bennett's 24-year tenure. However, the Gaels haven't made the Sweet 16 since 2010. Will this be the year? SEC foe Vanderbilt stands in a way.
We've got a breakdown of the strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the matchup, plus odds and viewing info. Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans' The Gaming Juice.
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Strengths: Saint Mary's features positional size and senior leadership, but what stands out the most is its defense and rebounding. The Gaels are second only to Texas A&M in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, grabbing over 40 percent of their misses. They also don't allow many offensive boards, ranking No. 1 in rebound margin per game (10). The defense is just as solid with its No. 7 efficiency ranking on KenPom thanks to senior center Mitchell Saxen, the WCC Defensive Player of the Year. Saint Mary's also has the back-to-back WCC Player of the Year in Augustas Marciulionis, who averages 14.3 points and 6.1 assists (top-20 in the nation). This team is methodical in its approach, and so far, it has worked.
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Weaknesses: The offense can stall at times, and it isn't built to come from behind with its lack of 3-point shooting, as evidenced by the 0-for-16 nightmare from deep in the WCC Tournament title game loss to Gonzaga. The Gaels' 3-point attempt to field goal attempt ratio is in the 300s nationally, and they shoot just 32.3 percent from beyond the arc, which ranks in the 200s. Their pace offensively is also 359th out of 364 Division I teams, leaving not much margin for error on that end. Their highest margin of defeat this season came against Utah State and Gonzaga, who both have a pace in the top 55.
Outlook: Defense and rebounding both travel, and that bodes well for Saint Mary's. If it's caught in a slugfest, there's no reason to believe it can't win. But if the Gaels play a fast-paced, offensive-minded team, will their style prevail? It's hard to tell. That's probably the biggest question. They have Sweet 16 upside if they can avoid a shootout.
—Sam Lance
Strengths: Vanderbilt has some very real offensive firepower. A top-25 offense, according to KenPom, the Commodores are capable of exploding thanks to the presence of All-SEC guard Jason Edwards. The 6-foot-1 Edwards is a streaky shooter with deep range who pairs perfectly with AJ Hoggard, a more physical point guard who has plenty of experience from his four Big Ten seasons with Michigan State. Tyler Nickel has made numerous clutch 3-pointers, and the combination of that trio of perimeter weapons with a pair of burly, undersized bigs has made Vandy really dangerous. The Commodores pound the offensive glass, force turnovers and, on nights when their 3s are going down, are really difficult to beat. Ask Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M and Missouri.
Weaknesses: Vanderbilt's strength on the defensive end is its ability to force turnovers. But in order to force turnovers, the Commodores take risks, which can create problems. For starters, they foul quite a bit, with a defensive free throw rate in the bottom 25th percentile nationally. They also allow too many shots around the rim, although Devin McGlockton and Jaylen Carey have been above average as rim protectors. But more than anything, Vandy gives up far too many open 3s. Opponents shoot 37 percent from beyond the arc. Only Cal (37.6) and Miami (39.7), which had its coach quit in December and may be the worst Power 5 team in the country, are the only high-major programs to allow a higher 3-point shooting percentage.
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Outlook: The Commodores are capable of taking down the big dogs in college basketball. They have multiple wins over top-10 opponents because of their boom-or-bust nature as a team. When Edwards gets hot and they force turnovers and play in transition, they have proven they can beat anyone.
—Rob Dauster
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(Photo of Aidan Mahaney: David Becker / Getty Images)