Israel-Iran conflict: Proxies, Strait of Hormuz and…? 4 ways Tehran can retaliate after US bombs nuclear sites
The US military "obliterated" Iran's main nuclear sites with massive bunker-busting bombs in the early hours of Sunday in the region, US President Donald Trump said, warning Tehran it would face more devastating attacks if it does not agree to peace.
Iran's state-run IRNA news agency reported that attacks targeted the country's Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz nuclear sites. The agency did not elaborate. Iran's foreign minister said Iran reserves the right to retaliate.
While Iran has sought to deter Trump from joining Israel's campaign with dire threats of retaliation, although limited, it still has options of retaliating after the US bombed its three nuclear sites.
Iran has built a network of alliances with regional militias – Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen – called the 'axis of resistance'.
While Hezbollah's extensive missile arsenal was pulverised by the Israeli air force last year, the Houthis still possess sophisticated arsenal, including several ballistic and cruise missiles, which conspicuously resembe Iranian designs.
In November 2023, the US warships repeatedly shot down Houthi drones, and cruise and ballistic missiles over the Red Sea. While a ceasefire between the Houthis and the US was reached in May, the terror group had warned they would regard the truce to be broken if Trump decide to take part in attacks on Iran, and would target US ships in the Red Sea, The Guardian said in a report.
Additionally, according to report, a Tehran-backed Shia militia in Iraq, Kata'ib Hezbollah, has threatened to target 'US interests' in the Middle East in response to Washington's participation in Israel's support.
According to Foreign Affairs expert Sushant Sareen, Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, possibly creating a global economic fallout.
'Iranians can block the Strait of Hormuz, from where almost 30 per cent of the world's oil flows. If they do that, the impact will be global; the economic fallout will affect all countries. India, as will other nations, will be affected, with China particularly impacted since all their oil flows from that area,' Sareen told ANI.
The strait is a narrow gateway to the Persian Gulf just 55 km wide in some places, through which over a fifth of the world's oil supply, 20m barrels, and much of its liquified gas, passes each day, The Guardian report said.
'Iran also has the option of attacking shipping, with the ultimate option of using mines, sinking vessels or issuing credible threats to close the Strait of Hormuz,' the report added.
According to the report, some Iranian politicians have called to shut the Strait of Hormuz. While it could be disadvantageous for the Trump administration as it would trigger an oil price spike with a near immediate inflationary effect in the US ahead of congressional elections next year, it could prove unfavourable for Iran as well.
Since the conflict between the Iran-backed terror group Houthis (based in Yemen) and Israel started after the October 7 attacks in 2023, attacks on American forces in West Asia became more frequent. They've been attacked more than 150 times in Iraq, Syria, Jordan and off the Yemeni coast.
Iran's Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh recently declared that 'all US bases are within our reach.'
In Iraq, the Al-Asad Air Base, 150 miles west of Baghdad, houses thousands of US troops and was directly targetted by Iranian missiles in 2020, The Economic Times reported.
According to the report, Attacks by Iran-backed militias on the base have continued intermittently since the killing of Qasem Soleimani, most recently in August 2024. Another exposed outpost is the Erbil Air Base in northern Iraq.
In Syria, the US now operates only al-Tanf garrison near the Jordanian and Iraqi borders. Tower 22 in Jordan, where three US service members were killed in a January 2024 drone strike, is also considered vulnerable, it said.
Some of the most prominent US military bases in the Middle East include: Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Naval Support Activity in Bahrain, the Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE, and Ali al-Salem and Camp Buehring in Kuwait, the report added.
Iran could very easily step up its missile barrage on Israel, as analysts point out. Iran's armed forces launched multiple attacks on Sunday, targetting multiple sites in Israel including Ben Gurion airport near Tel Aviv, saying they relied on some of their most sophisticated long-range missiles with 'devastating warhead power', an AFP report said.
Iran said it was responding to the US attack on its nuclear sites. Iran has been firing missile barrages at Israel since the war began but they have decreased in size as Israel targets Tehran's missile launchers. The Islamic Republic may also be keeping some arms in reserve, news agency AP reported.
Such moves could escalate into a broader, more protracted conflict than President Trump envisioned, evoking echoes of the 'forever wars' the US fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, which he derided as 'stupid' and promised never to be dragged into, Al Jazeera report said.
'The Iranians are seriously weakened and degraded in their military capabilities,' said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Democratic and Republican administrations. 'But they have all sorts of asymmetric ways that they can respond… This is not going to end quick.'
Iran has maintained that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only, and US intelligence agencies have assessed that Tehran is not actively pursuing a bomb. However, Trump and Israeli leaders have claimed that Iran could quickly assemble a nuclear weapon, making it an imminent threat.
(With inputs from agencies)
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