
What is Wisconsin's basketball most important offseason move?
What is Wisconsin's basketball most important offseason move?
Many fans are excited about Wisconsin basketball's top-ranked transfer portal recruiting class, and rightfully so. But while landing top targets in the portal is key, it might not be the most important factor in sustainable winning.
That true X-factor may be returning production, with many teams struggling during March Madness due to failed player retention from the prior offseason. Luckily for Wisconsin in 2025-26, while its transfer haul is impressive, the team is set to be led by returning starters John Blackwell and Nolan Winter.
College basketball statistician Evan Miyakawa has done a ton of research about the optimal roster construction techniques. He found that it is more important for team success to return key contributors from the previous season rather than start fresh with a ton of top transfers. His study also found that not only is player retention extremely important for team production, but landing transfers with multiple years of eligibility is crucial as well. While transfer additions Nick Boyd and Andrew Rohde only have one year of eligibility remaining, transfer forward Austin Rapp joins the program with three years left, which is why his addition over top programs including Michigan was such a major win for the Badgers' staff.
Additionally, Miyakawa's research showed that only six of the twenty teams in the past four seasons with a low percentage of returning production made the NCAA Tournament. Wisconsin isn't returning near the 50% threshold that Miyakawa suggests as optimal, but the team is still returning about 38% of last year's production, which is still impressive in this current age of college basketball.
It has also become clear that not only do teams that have a large amount of returning production do well in the regular season, but they also have a ton of success in March Madness. The only exception to this was Duke, which was led by star freshmen Cooper Flagg and Kon Kueppel. The Blue Devils are generally an anomaly, considering how many blue-chip recruits they land annually. But even with those high-profile recruits, Duke still didn't make the national championship, which further proves Miyakawa's point that roster continuity and retention is the highest priority for top college basketball programs.
Overall, this data is favorable for the Badgers, considering they return more production than most Power Four teams, headlined by potential stars in Blackwell and Winter. Those two, combined with top portal additions in Boyd, Rohde, and Rapp, set Wisconsin up nicely to have success both in Big Ten play and potentially in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
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