Crop Watch: Trade war jitters may add some corn acres
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.)
NAPERVILLE, Illinois - Back for their eighth edition, the U.S. Crop Watch producers are off to their quickest-ever start on planting their corn and soybean fields. However, trade conflicts with top U.S. soybean and sorghum buyer China have a couple of farmers adding a bit more corn than originally planned.
Crop Watch follows 11 corn and 11 soybean fields across nine U.S. states, including two each in Iowa and Illinois. This is the project's eighth consecutive year, featuring the same producers and locations. In 2021, Crop Watch was expanded to 11 producers from eight previously.
As of Thursday, nine of the 22 Crop Watch fields were planted, the most for the date since the 11-field format began. That includes five corn and four soybean fields.
However, that pace may briefly stall out because some producers are waiting for topsoil to dry out after recent rains. The next batch of Crop Watch plantings is targeted for next week.
LITTLE MORE CORN
Relatively low soybean prices already have U.S. farmers planning to ditch soybean acres at the steepest year-on-year rate in 18 years. Recently escalating trade tensions between Washington and Beijing have added extra acreage confusion in areas of the Corn Belt that are less locked in to corn-soybean rotations.
Within the last two months, the North Dakota Crop Watch producer has switched some soybean acres over to corn and barley, and the Kansas producer replaced some sorghum acres with corn. In addition to poor Chinese demand, domestic sorghum demand has also lagged.
Only one other producer noted the addition of a few more corn acres than previously expected, but this is unrelated to the trade war. The remaining eight growers did not change acreage plans.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's March survey revealed farmers' intentions to plant 95.3 million acres of corn this year, a 12-year high. Many market participants have been bracing for even larger corn acres, potentially at the expense of soybeans.
PLANTING PACE
As of Thursday, four of the producers reported normal planting paces in their areas, three said normal-to-fast, and two reported normal-to-slow. Dryness in South Dakota has facilitated a quick pace there, but excessive rains in southeastern Illinois have put fieldwork notably behind schedule.
USDA estimates that 12% of U.S. corn was planted as of Sunday, similar to the previous two years and slightly ahead of the five-year average. Soybeans at 8% planted were ahead of normal.
LOOKING AHEAD
The Crop Watch producers were asked about their biggest concerns ahead of the 2025 growing season, and the top issue was abundantly clear: weather.
With production costs mostly steady on the year, lower commodity prices mean that growers need big yields to help them turn a profit. This requires favorable summer weather, though a handful of areas have been dry over the longer-term despite recent showers.
Some forecasts have called for potential drought conditions this summer, primarily focused on the western Corn Belt. The western Crop Watch growers report soils are mostly dry right now, making for good planting conditions but raising some background concern.
Uncertain U.S. trade policy has also been a source of unease for some Crop Watch producers, but the primary focus is on maximizing their own output.
Weekly Crop Watch reports, which include crop ratings, weather updates and photos, will begin after the subject fields have emerged. Producers will continue to provide commentary on any upcoming shifts in the U.S. agricultural markets, especially if any new trade or biofuel policies emerge.
Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.
(Writing by Karen Braun Editing by Matthew Lewis)
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