Climate change ‘could lead to 45C summers in Britain'

Telegraph

a day ago

Climate change could lead to 45C summers in the UK, the Met Office has said.
A study by the forecaster found there was now a 50-50 chance that the country sees 40C again in the next 12 years.
The Met Office analysed a model of the summer of 2022 – which saw temperatures in the UK surpass 40C for the first time – and global climate trends.
Data show that there is a 4.2 per cent chance that the mercury climbs above 40C at least once in any given summer.
The likelihood of this extreme temperature occurring is now six times greater than it was in the 1980s, and three times more likely than in 2000.
Dr Gillian Kay, a senior scientist at the Met Office and the study's lead author, said: 'The chance of exceeding 40C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s.
'Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising. We estimate a 50-50 chance of seeing a 40C day again in the next 12 years.'
Under current projections, the model also predicts a 1 per cent chance per year of temperatures reaching 42C.
The maximum temperature that could conceivably be reached, according to the analysis, is 46.6C, and month-long heatwaves are also a possibility.
'Far higher temperatures – over 45C – and more sustained heatwaves may be possible today,' the scientists wrote.
The model also found it was possible that in the South East – the area most prone to extreme heat – there could be five days above 40C in a single month.
The current definition for a heatwave is three days with temperatures in excess of 28C in London and the South East. It is 25C for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Data in the study show a possible scenario where two thirds of the summer days are above this threshold. One simulated summer had more than a month of consecutive days above 28C which would officially create a 39-day long heatwave.
Dr Nick Dunstone, a Met Office science fellow and co-author of the study, said: 'The well-known hot summer of 1976 had more than a fortnight above 28C, which is a key heatwave threshold in south-east England.
'Our study finds that in today's climate such conditions could persist for a month or more. These findings highlight the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures now, so we can better protect public health, infrastructure and the environment from the growing threat of extreme heat.'
The findings, published in the journal Weather, come as the UK is predicted to have its first heatwave of the year this weekend, with temperatures of more than 30C forecast.
On Tuesday, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) issued a heat health alert for most of England, starting on Wednesday at noon and lasting until 6pm on Sunday.
The yellow heat health warnings are in place everywhere except the North West and North East. Officials issue such notices when vulnerable and elderly people will be more prone to heat-related health concerns.
The Met Office study found that during the record-breaking summer of 2022 when the UK hit 40C for the first time in recorded history, there were almost 3,000 heat-related excess deaths.
During the four days at the peak of the heatwave, there were more than 1,000 excess deaths in over-65s, according to UKHSA data.
'We have estimated the chances and characteristics of extreme hot episodes in the UK in the present-day climate, and how they have changed over the last six decades,' the scientists wrote.
'We find that temperatures several degrees above those recorded in July 2022 are plausible, with a simulated maximum of 46.6C.
'The model simulates up to two thirds of summer days exceeding 28C, and over a month in continuous heatwave. Twelve consecutive days of [a maximum temperature] above 35C is also possible.
'The rising chance of 40C in the UK over the last decades suggests that an intense heatwave such as that seen in 2022 should not be dismissed as an isolated occurrence. Similar, or even more severe, events should be viewed as a hazard of the current climate and prepared for accordingly.'